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Florida vs. Houston Prediction & Picks Today: Best Preview & Odds for NCAA Championship

Mike Spector

Last Updated: April 7, 2025 1:11 PM EDT • 5 min 57 sec read.

Florida vs. Houston Prediction & Picks Today: Best NCAA Championship Preview & Odds
Pictured: Houston Cougars guard Emanuel Sharp (21) celebrates with teammates in the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. Photo by Robert Deutsch via Imagn Images.

The Florida Gators (35-4) and Houston Cougars (35-4) go head-to-head for the national title in tonight's NCAA Championship. Our Florida vs. Houston prediction expects the underdogs to cut down the nets and win their first championship more than four decades after heartbreak in the same game.

Tipoff is set for 8:50 p.m. ET (CBS) from the Alamodome in San Antonio. Our Final Four ATS and player prop picks went 3-1, so we look to punctuate a highly profitable March Madness run with one last successful pair of wagers this evening.

Our best sports betting sites list the Gators as 1.5-point favorites ahead of the March Madness finale. Will Florida return to the top behind Walter Clayton Jr., or can the Cougars bring home their first championship?

🏀 Florida vs. Houston prediction & picks for today

Here are my best Florida vs. Houston predictions for the national championship of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Houston +1.5 (-114 via FanDuel) vs. Florida ⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Walter Clayton Under 19.5 points (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Houston 71, Florida 69 (+16000 via DraftKings)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks.

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✅ Houston to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐

Houston had entered its Final Four matchup with Duke holding 32 of its 38 opponents to fewer than 70 points. However, its most impressive defensive performance was limiting the Blue Devils, who had the most efficient offense ever in the KenPom era, to just 67 points and one field goal over the final 10:30 of the second half.

The Cougars’ offensive performance on Saturday should also not be overlooked, as they made 45.5% of their 3-point attempts in shooting over a Blue Devils team that is the tallest in the nation by average height.

In addition, Houston made 10 of 12 shots against Duke’s No. 1-rated defense in terms of effective field goal percentage during a stretch ranging between the end of the first half and the start of the second half. That made the Cougars’ comeback even more impressive since Duke extended the lead in that stretch. 

There is little argument that Florida faced much stiffer competition than Houston on a daily basis in conference play coming from the rugged SEC. 

But the Gators are also fortunate to still be playing, after having just a 5.6% win probability in their second-half comeback in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech. Their Final Four game could also have turned out much differently if Johni Broome was 100% healthy. 

Instead, Houston’s victory on Saturday when it had a 1.5% winning percentage when down 59-45 with just over eight minutes left had more of a feel that it earned that victory instead of Duke losing it.

As we cited in our Houston pick when grabbing the points against Duke, do not underestimate the Cougars’ home-court advantage playing in San Antonio. I give Houston the coaching edge as well, and am backing it to win its first national championship.

📊 Best odds: -114 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.77)

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🔥 Walter Clayton Under 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Walter Clayton’s 34 points against Auburn on Saturday were the most in a Final Four win since 1981. In addition, Clayton is the first player with consecutive 30-point games in the Elite Eight and Final Four since Larry Bird in 1979.

Given Clayton’s hot streak, this is a heavily contrarian play, but one that comes with confidence in supporting the country’s best defensive team.

Houston entered the Final Four allowing a D-I best 0.87 points per possession in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Its unique way of blitzing and trapping ball screens should get the ball out of Clayton’s hands often.

In a game that Houston should be successful playing at its tempo, I am backing Clayton to be held under 20 points for the second time in the previous eight games. This pick directly fades the public, who has made Clayton Over 19.5 points its best bet at BetMGM. Read on for more betting insights for tonight's March Madness finale.

📊 Best odds: -115 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.70)

🎯 Score prediction: Houston 71, Florida 69

Houston ended a 13-game winning streak by favorites since the Sweet 16 started, as favorites are now 13-1 straight up in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, and Final Four games combined. The Cougars’ only loss since the calendar turned to December was a one-point loss in overtime to Texas Tech.

Given Houston’s propensity for holding teams under 70 points, I’m predicting a final score of Houston 71, Florida 69.

📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1600)

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🤖 Florida vs. Houston AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Florida vs. Houston. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Houston 77, Florida 71.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Houston 77, Florida 71

ChatGPT's key reasons why Houston will beat Florida 77-71:

  • Houston’s defensive dominance: Houston has been the most formidable defensive team in the nation. Its ability to lock down opposing offenses will be a major factor in limiting Florida’s scoring opportunities, especially in high-pressure moments
  • Florida's offensive firepower: Florida has showcased impressive offensive depth in the tournament
  • Rebounding battle: Houston's rebounding, especially on the offensive glass, has been crucial to its success. If Florida can't control the boards, it could struggle to limit second-chance points and Houston's efficient scoring, tipping the scales in favor of the Cougars

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Houston covering the spread (+1.5) and a total of Over 141.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Florida vs. Houston odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the national championship.

📈 Florida vs. Houston odds movement

The most significant change to the NCAA Championship game lines in the hours leading up to tipoff has to do with the spread. Florida - which opened as a 1.5-point favorite - is now listed at -1 at some of our best live betting sites. The moneyline odds and total remain unmoved ahead of tonight's game.

🔢 Florida vs. Houston opening odds

  • Spread: Florida -1.5 (-105) | Houston +1.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Florida -118 | Houston -102
  • Over/Under: Over 141.5 (-115) | Under 141.5 (-105)

🧐 Florida vs. Houston betting insights

NCAA Championship betting insights for tonight's game via BetMGM:

Spread

The spread has held steady in the hours leading up to tipoff. Florida remains a 1.5-point betting favorite, and the Gators are getting 61% of the bets and 53% of the handle.

Moneyline

Both teams opened up at minus money, with Florida (-118) a slight favorite to beat Houston (-102). The Gators are now -115 to win outright and the Cougars are -105. This is a result of the public backing Kelvin Sampson's men with 53% of the bets and 55% of the handle.

Total

The opening spread was set at Over/Under 140.5 total points. Despite Houston boasting the best DRtg in the country per KenPom, a majority of the bets (56%) are on the Over. This has resulted in the line increasing to 141.5. Bettors have flocked to bet the Under at this number, with 61% of the money predicting Under.

Most popular player props

  • Walter Clayton over 19.5 points (-140)
  • Walter Clayton over 3.5 assists (-135)
  • LJ Cryer over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-150)
  • LJ Cryer over 17.5 points (-110)
  • J'Wan Roberts over 6.5 rebounds (-115)

📺 How to watch Florida vs. Houston: NCAA Tournament National Championship

📅 Date: Monday, April 7
🕗 Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live, Paramount+

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”