Florida vs. Maryland Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
The No. 1 seed Florida Gators (32-4) will have their hands full against the No. 4 seed Maryland Terrapins (27-8) in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 later today. Tipoff for the West Region tilt from Chase Center in San Francisco is at 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV).
Florida is a 6.5-point betting favorite and will look to get its first ATS victory of the tournament. My Florida vs. Maryland prediction, odds, and preview, part of our March Madness predictions, don't expect the Gators to get that ATS victory, but can they do enough to reach the Elite Eight?
🏀 Florida vs. Maryland prediction & picks for today
Here are my best Florida vs. Maryland predictions for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Maryland +6.5 (-102 via FanDuel) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Walter Clayton Jr. Under 19.5 Points (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Maryland 76, Florida 74 (+16000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions.
Florida vs. Maryland betting insights
- Florida is generating a significant amount of attention, with 63% of the action on the Gators to cover -6.5.
- The action is more even on the total, with the Over getting 56%.
- The spread has been mostly stagnant at BetMGM, though it did move further in Florida's favor and to -7.5 a few times Tuesday around noon ET
🏆 Best Florida vs. Maryland pick, player prop bet & score prediction
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Maryland to cover the spread: +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Florida Gators are great, as their second-shortest March Madness odds indicate, but the Maryland Terrapins might be severely under-seeded. Since Feb. 1, the Gators are an impressive third in T-Rank, mainly due to their second-ranked offense–but the Terps are right on their heels in seventh. Unlike Florida, Maryland’s success stems from its defense, which is first nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency in that sample.
Teams often make adjustments in March, which we’ve seen with both sides of this matchup. These are both top-75 teams in pace since Feb. 1, but when we look at tournament games, Maryland ranks 15th slowest and fourth-slowest of the remaining teams. Florida's pace has also slowed.
With both teams playing slower basketball, I want the points with the Terps in a strength-on-strength matchup between the Maryland defense and Florida offense, particularly as both teams are playing slower basketball.
Maryland is too good to be a 6.5-point betting underdog, and we’ve seen how clutch Derik Queen can be. Remember, the UConn game closed at 9.5–this year’s Maryland team is at least three points better than them.
Take the Terps plus the points and get some exposure on them to win outright.
📊 Best odds: -102 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.80)
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🔥 Walter Clayton Under 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Fading Florida’s leading scorer may sound bold, but this Maryland defense is for real, especially on the perimeter. Clayton scored 23 points in the first and second rounds, but he’ll struggle to replicate those performances against a Terps defense that has allowed opposing teams to shoot only 28% from beyond the arc since Feb. 1, which ranks 13th-best in the country.
While Clayton can score from anywhere, perimeter shooting has been a key part of his game. He made four 3-point shots in the first round and second in the subsequent game and is averaging three 3-pointers per game this year. Of his 13.5 field goals attempted per game, 7.8, or 57.7%, came from beyond the arc.
Maryland continued to play strong perimeter defense in the tournament's opening rounds. They held Grand Canyon to 5-for-23 and Colorado State, one of the premier long-distance offenses in the country, to 5-for-21. I don't expect Clayton, averaging 4.5 3-pointers per game so far in the tournament, to keep cooking against this Maryland defense. This is also one of my favorite Florida vs. Maryland player props.
Of our best sportsbooks, BetMGM is the place to pull the trigger on this prop.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
🎯 Score prediction: Maryland 76, Florida 74
With the total for this game set to a generous 157.5, we’ve got it staying Under, with a Maryland win and a total of 150.
While I respect the incredible offensive output from Florida, both teams have been playing slower. The other key part of the equation is that Maryland’s defense matches well against the Gators.
The Gators rank 37th in 3-point rate since the start of February, so if Maryland can continue to play strong perimeter defense, favorites won’t have such an easy time winning this game.
📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,600)
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🤖 Florida vs. Maryland AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Florida vs. Maryland. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Florida 77, Maryland 74.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Florida 77, Maryland 74.
- Florida's offense, averaging 85.4 points per game, ranks third nationally. Their high-scoring capability, led by All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr., will challenge Maryland's defense.
- Maryland's freshman standout, Derik Queen, has been instrumental in their tournament run, notably hitting a buzzer-beater to advance past Colorado State. His performance under pressure could be pivotal against Florida.
- Florida has failed to cover the spread in their tournament games so far, indicating they might be overvalued by oddsmakers. This trend suggests that Maryland could perform better than the spread implies.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Maryland covering the spread (+6.5) and a total of 151 points, which is under the over/under line of 156.5. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Florida vs. Maryland odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Sweet 16.
🔢 Florida vs. Maryland opening odds
- Spread: Florida -6.5 (-114) | Maryland +6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Florida -263 | Maryland +225
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-105) | Under 155.5 (-114)
Florida vs. Maryland line movement
All movement prior to tipoff via BetMGM.
Spread
The spread has largely remained unchanged, though it did move further toward the Gators and from -6.5 to -7.5 a few times around noon ET on Tuesday.
Total
The total started at 154.5 before rapidly climbing up to 157.5. It's since been shifting between that and 156.6, which is where the number sits now in the hours before tipoff.
Moneyline
There's been gradual movement toward Florida on the moneyline. The Gators opened -275 before shortening further to -300.
📺 How to watch Florida vs. Maryland: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
📅 Date: Thursday, March 27
🕗 Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Chase Center (San Francisco)
📺 TV: TBS/truTV
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
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