How to Predict March Madness Upsets: Follow These Tips in Your NCAA Tournament Bracket
It might be amongst friends, an office pool, or a large online tournament, but we all strive for that winning March Madness bracket every year. Of course, early upsets mean that rarely works out - the best laid plans of mice and men and all that.
But can we spot some of the biggest March Madness upsets before they happen? We're looking at the best NCAA Tournament trends and history to find spots where we gain the upper hand on our competitors in pursuit of the perfect March Madness bracket.
👉 Check out our list of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🏀 Best tips & strategies for picking March Madness upsets
Predicting the most common March Madness upsets before they happen can feel like more of an art than a science, but there are some consistent trends behind the perceived randomness of the NCAA Tournament.
Here are a few factors to consider when making your March Madness upset picks:
⛹️ Tempo difference
One of the most common factors surrounding the biggest March Madness upsets over the years is tempo. Slow-paced teams, particularly highly ranked ones, seem to find their way into trouble more often than other top teams with a faster pace.
The most obvious example is Virginia, which was often the slowest-paced team in the entire country under Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers were often among the top seeds but famously lost to No. 16 seed UMBC in 2018 before winning it all the following year.
The same fate befell Purdue two years ago, when the Boilermakers entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed while ranking outside the top 300 in tempo. In the first round, Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in the biggest upset in March Madness history.
None of this is to say that upsets are as simple as picking the team with the quicker pace, but that does routinely play a role in some of the tournament's all-time shockers. It's important to keep an eye on matchups with two teams featuring wildly different tempos, as the higher-seeded team may struggle to adjust to such a different pace.
👨🏽💼Non-conference schedule
Many of the best March Madness Cinderellas over the years come from smaller conferences and face a relatively easy schedule compared to other teams out of power conferences such as the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, or SEC.
Before their conference slates begin, though, many of those small schools face a mish-mash of opponents - some of whom may have come from those power conferences. Look out for those results as a way to gauge the relative strength of a team that may have waltzed through its conference schedule but remains underseeded.
📋 Coaching matchups
This can be tougher to diagnose ahead of time or sort out in small samples, but some coaches seem to have a knack for leading their teams to disaster.
Sure, Matt Painter coached Purdue to a runner-up finish last year in the NCAA Tournament, but he had struggled mightily in the tournament before that. Even prior to that historic loss to FDU in 2023, Purdue lost as a No. 3 seed to No. 15 seed Saint Peter's the year before, which came after losing to a No. 13 in the first round before that.
That doesn't mean his teams are guaranteed to drop the ball - clearly not, as they made a run to the final last year - but coaches like Painter and Bennett struggled for years in the tournament before finally breaking through. Keep an eye on those types of trends when looking to identify a potential first-round upset against a power program.
📊 Key metrics: free throws, 3-pointers, rebounds, and turnovers
There isn't a lot of wiggle room for the David to topple the Goliath. But four key metrics can help them in that quest: free throws, 3-pointers, rebounds, and turnovers.
It's helpful for an underdog to catch fire from downtown or the charity stripe, but that's not something we can truly predict ahead of the game. What we can predict is how often a team might attempt these shots, which can serve as the great equalizer in March Madness.
Look for teams with a proclivity for the 3-point shot playing against teams that don't emphasize it, and you'll find an area where the lower seed can make up some ground. Similar for free throws: if one team has a knack of getting to the line (and producing there) and the other team doesn't, that could be the difference in the final margin.
Rebounding and turnovers are equally self-explanatory: if you keep the ball out of your opponents' hands, you're going to limit possessions and maximize the value of every trip down the floor. In tight games against superior opponents, that's often the winning formula, which is why these factors tend to loom so large in many upsets.
💰Lower-seeded favorites
We all know you can't always trust oddsmakers. It's not a perfect science. But trust me when I say that the best sportsbooks usually have a significant edge over us, and if they set the No. 10 seed as the favorite to beat the No. 7 seed, well, there's probably something behind that.
Similarly, despite the fact that March Madness has produced some of the biggest upsets in college basketball history, the betting market is still pretty dang efficient. If a team is favored by 18 points, they're going to get the job done more often than not.
Opening-round lines will be out before you need to submit your bracket. Don't forget to utilize that tool as a way of gauging the strength of teams beyond just their seeds.
Our Esten McLaren outlines the latest March Madness odds.
🎯 Which seeds should you target for your March Madness upsets?
Here's a look at how each March Madness seed has performed in the first round, as well as their all-time record and best finish in the NCAA Tournament. It's important to note how far these underdogs often make it and the frequency which they advance to the deep stages of the tournament: not often.
| Seed | First-round record | All-time record | Best finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 9 | 81-75 (.519) vs. No. 8 | 99-156 | Final Four (x2) |
| No. 10 | 60-95 (.387) vs. No. 7 | 94-155 | Final Four (x1) |
| No. 11 | 61-95 (.391) vs. No. 6 | 104-156 | Final Four (x5) |
| No. 12 | 55-101 (.353) vs. No. 5 | 79-156 | Elite Eight (x2) |
| No. 13 | 33-123 (.212) vs. No. 4 | 39-156 | Sweet 16 (x6) |
| No. 14 | 23-133 (.147) vs. No. 3 | 25-156 | Sweet 16 (x2) |
| No. 15 | 11-145 (.071) vs. No. 2 | 16-156 | Elite Eight (x1) |
| No. 16 | 2-154 (.013) vs. No. 1 | 2-156 | Second Round (x2) |
🔮 Our best March Madness upset predictions & picks for 2025
If we know one thing about March Madness, it's that there will inevitably be a few shocking upsets in the first round and at least one surprise team that makes a deep run through the NCAA Tournament.
So we've asked our college basketball experts to identify the best Cinderella teams ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament:
🔥 Expert March Madness upset picks
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- March Madness upset predictions
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- Ranking every 13-16 seed
📅March Madness key dates
- Selection Sunday: March 16
- First Four: March 18-19
- First round: March 20-21
- Second round: March 22-23
- Sweet 16: March 27-28
- Elite Eight: March 29-30
- Final Four: Saturday, April 5
- National championship game: Monday, April 7
🏀 March Madness first-round expert picks
- Who will win the South bracket?
- Who are the best players in the NCAA Tournament?
- March Madness upset predictions
- How to predict March Madness upsets
- What are the most common March Madness upsets?
- What are the biggest March Madness upsets of all time?
- What are the best March Madness buzzer-beaters?
🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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- Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction
- Missouri vs. Drake prediction
- UCLA vs. Utah State prediction
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
| March Madness odds | March Madness MVP odds |
| Women's March Madness odds | March Madness MVP predictions |
| Final Four odds | March Madness prop bets |
👑 Best March Madness betting sites
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