Illinois vs. Rutgers College Basketball Picks: Hot Streaks on the Line in Jersey

Illinois enters the night with a half-game lead on Purdue and Wisconsin in the Big Ten standings, but faces a Rutgers team that has been giant killers of late. Will the Fighting Illini be the Scarlet Knights' next highly ranked victims? Follow along for our Illinois-Rutgers picks.

Illinois (18-6, 11-3) has the same record through 24 games as it did at this point last year when the team won seven consecutive games (including a Big Ten Tournament championship) en route to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Fighting Illini have won five of their last six games. Their only loss in that span came by 16 points at Mackey Arena against Purdue. In that span, three of Illinois' wins have been by seven or fewer points.

Rutgers (15-9, 9-5) has played its way squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, which is shocking considering the team lost three consecutive early-season non-conference games against DePaul, Lafayette, and UMass. The Scarlet Knights have beaten three consecutive top 25 teams (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin) for the first time in school history. They entered the week with six Quadrant I wins, which is a number that only six teams in the country had more than as of Monday morning.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday's college basketball matchup between Illinois and Rutgers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Illinois vs. Rutgers Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, Feb. 16, 7 p.m. ETTV: BTNLocation: Jersey Mike's Arena, Piscataway, NJ

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Illinois vs. Rutgers Odds Analysis

Illinois is favored for the 14th time in the last 15 games but is just 2-6 against the spread in its previous eight. Conversely, Rutgers is an underdog for the fifth straight game, covering each of the last four and winning the last three outright. The Scarlet Knights are also a perfect 5-0 ATS and straight up as home underdogs.

The 133.5-point total is the second-lowest of any of Illinois' games this season and is just the third of its last 13 games with a projected total in the 130s. The Over is 3-1 in Rutgers' previous four games and 14-10 in its 24 games overall. The Under has cashed in four of Illinois' six games as road favorites.

Illinois vs. Rutgers Picks

Rutgers +4.5 (-110) ????Under 133.5 (-110) ???

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Illinois vs. Rutgers Predictions

Rutgers +4.5

Illinois blasted Rutgers by 35 points in the Big Ten opener on Dec. 3. The loss was Rutgers' fourth in five games at the time, and its season looked to be spiraling out of control before conference play got going. However, Rutgers is 11-5 since and is playing with a feeling of invincibility at the moment.

Not only is Rutgers playing with more confidence of late, but its roster will feel completely different in this rematch, as second-leading scorer Geo Baker is healthy. Baker (12.5 points per game, 4.1 assists per game) missed the first meeting with a hamstring injury, which was one of four early-season games he missed. The junior guard is the Scarlet Knights' best shot-creator off the dribble. Coach Steve Pikiell often looks his way late in the shot clock to go one-on-one and make something happen. The Illini limited Baker to 17 points in two meetings last year, but look for him to be much more aggressive, as he has attempted at least 12 shots in the previous two games.

Aside from Baker, Paul Mulcahy is emerging as another scoring threat for the Scarlet Knights. He has scored in double figures in each of the last five games, after scoring at least 10 points in just five of their first 19.

All in all, this Rutgers team is much different than the one that got blown out by Illinois on the road in early December. The Scarlet Knights already have a long list of top-ranked teams they have beaten at home this year. They have a good chance of winning this one outright, but we are happy to take the points just in case.

Under 133.5

Rutgers' three-game winning streak over ranked teams has been spurred by an offense that has taken it to the next level, averaging 74.3 PPG in those wins. However, while more scorers emerge around Baker and Ron Harper Jr., the defense is not getting nearly as much love.

The Scarlet Knights are allowing just 64 PPG in their last three wins. They have forced 34 turnovers combined against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. While those three opponents have shot better than 40% from 3-point range against them (25-for-61), Rutgers has been effective in other areas like interior defense and using a methodical tempo to limit possessions.

Rutgers knows it cannot beat Illinois if the game devolves into a track meet. Thus, look for the Scarlet Knights to slow the pace (11th slowest pace in the Big Ten) and make Illinois star Kofi Cockburn guard in the half-court by pulling him away from the basket and involving him in ball screens. In their first meeting, Illinois shot 60.7% inside the arc, but we look for Pikiell to make adjustments and limit the penetrating ability of Illinois' guards.

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Illinois-Rutgers picks made 2/15/2022 at 8:37 a.m. ET