Illinois vs. Xavier Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament First Round
Tonight's NCAA Tournament first-round battle between the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (21-10) and No. 11 seed Xavier Musketeers (22-11) has the Fighting Illini as 4.5-point betting favorites.
Tipoff from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis., occurs at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS). We like the Fighting Illini to advance in the Midwest Region of the March Madness bracket, and our Illinois vs. Xavier prediction, odds, and preview expands on that narrative.
The picks below are part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Illinois vs. Xavier prediction & picks today
Here are my best Illinois vs. Xavier predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Illinois -3 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Xavier ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Tomislav Ivisic Over 6.5 rebounds (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Illinois 83, Xavier 78 (+25000 via FanDuel)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🔢 Illinois vs. Xavier updated betting action
Below information via BetMGM.
- After spending the entirety of the week hovering around -3.5, Illinois moved to a -4.5 favorite on Friday afternoon
- 59% of bets are on Xavier (+4.5) to cover
- 57% of the bets are on the Over (161.5)
🏆 Best Illinois vs. Xavier pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Illinois to cover the spread: -3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Illinois and Xavier are similarly effective on the defensive end, falling in the 40s in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. But the Illini land several dozen spots higher on the offensive end, compiling the 15th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation. Xavier falls outside the top 50 in the category.
The Illini also possess the 32nd-best defensive rebounding rate, which could be a problem for a Xavier team that isn’t as efficient offensively and ranks 321st in offensive rebounding rate.
Though Xavier is 19-14 against the spread (ATS), the Musketeers lag when playing as an underdog, going just 5-7 ATS in those scenarios. Similarly, an Illinois team with just 16-17 ATS overall has a stronger cover rate as a favorite (14-11 ATS).
📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Tomislav Ivisic Over 6.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Xavier ranks 250th in the country in rebounds per game. Their ranking among the bottom 50 teams in the nation in offensive rebounding makes for an opportunity that bodes well for Ivisic’s skill set.
Ivisic leads Illinois with 177 defensive rebounds on the season, averaging nearly six per game. Against a Musketeers group that rarely earns second chances on the offensive glass, he should earn his keep cleaning up their misses.
Averaging 7.7 rebounds per game on the year, this line sitting at 6.5 makes this a five-star player prop.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
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🎯 Score prediction: Illinois 83, Xavier 78
Illinois ranks ninth in the nation in scoring, averaging 83.8 points per game. With both teams deploying an adjusted tempo in the top 75, scoring should be plentiful in this matchup.
I’ve pegged Xavier for right around its season scoring average, too. In their comeback win over Texas, the Musketeers showed a strong ability to pour on points late and should keep it close until the waning moments. But Illinois is too balanced and strong on the glass to let this one slip away.
📊 Best odds: +25000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $2,500)
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🤖 Illinois vs. Xavier AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Illinois vs. Xavier. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Illinois 81, Xavier 75.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Illinois 81, Xavier 75
- Illinois' Offensive Edge: The Fighting Illini rank among the top teams in offensive efficiency, which should help them dictate the pace against a Xavier squad that struggles defensively in transition.
- Xavier’s Fatigue Factor: After battling through the First Four, Xavier faces a quick turnaround, which can disadvantage teams in their next tournament game.
- Betting Trend Watch: While Illinois is favored, March Madness history shows 11-seeds have upset 6-seeds 37.5% of the time, making Xavier a tempting underdog bet
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Illinois covering the spread (-3) and a total of Under 160.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Illinois vs. Xavier odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Illinois vs. Xavier odds
Our updated Illinois vs. Xavier odds are via BetMGM.
Spread
- Illinois is the 4.5-point betting favorites (-105). Those -105 odds carry an implied probability of 51.22%.
- Oklahoma (+4.5) is juiced at -115, implying a 53.49% probability.
Total
The Illinois-Xavier betting total is at 159.5 points. The Over and Under sit at -110.
Moneyline
Illinois is the -170 favorites (62.96%), and Oklahoma is the +140 underdog (41.67%).
🔢 Illinois vs. Xavier opening odds
- Spread: Illinois -3.5 (-105) | Xavier +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Illinois -170 | Xavier +140
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 Midwest Region expert picks
- Midwest Region betting preview
- Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville prediction
- Gonzaga vs. Georgia prediction
- McNeese vs. Clemson prediction
- Purdue vs. High Point prediction
- Illinois vs. Xavier prediction
- Kentucky vs. Troy prediction
- UCLA vs. Utah State prediction
- Tennessee vs. Wofford prediction
📺 How to watch Illinois vs. Xavier: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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