Kentucky vs. Troy Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: NCAA Tournament Best Bets
The No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) open their March Madness tournament run tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) against the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans (23-10). We’re breaking down the NCAA Tournament first-round matchup with our Kentucky vs. Troy predictions, odds, and preview.
The Wildcats are 10.5-point betting favorites to win this opening-round Midwest Region matchup at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. As part of our best March Madness predictions, we’re looking at Koby Brea for another sharpshooting effort that's in line with his recent play.
🏀 Kentucky vs. Troy prediction & picks tonight
Here are my best Kentucky vs. Troy predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Kentucky -10.5 (-118 via BetMGM) vs. Troy ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Koby Brea Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Kentucky 86, Troy 70 (+31000 via FanDuel)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
🔢 Kentucky vs. Troy updated betting action
- We see some sharp money coming in on Kentucky to cover the spread, as 52% of the handle is on the Wildcats despite only 44% of the tickets
- There's been similar action on the total, as 56% of the handle is on the Under
- As a result of that aforementioned action on the spread, Kentucky now serves as 11.5-point favorites after opening at -10.5
🏆 Best Kentucky vs. Troy pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Kentucky to cover the spread: -10.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although Troy has performed as one of the better teams against the spread in college basketball this season (21-11 ATS), its efforts against higher-quality opponents were another matter.
Troy dropped its three Quad 1 games this season by 16 or more points, combining for an average margin of defeat of 19 points while going 1-2 ATS in those matchups.
The Trojans have the fifth-lowest effective field-goal percentage in the NCAA Tournament field and simply won’t have the horses (pun intended) to keep up with Kentucky’s scoring pace. At 85.3 PPG, the Wildcats rank fourth in the nation in scoring (Troy ranks 180th at 72.5 PPG).
📊 Best odds: -118 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.47)
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🔥 Koby Brea Over 2.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Troy ranks 29th in effective field-goal percentage defensively, but if it has an area that’s more malleable than another, it’s the 3-point defense, which ranks just outside the top 100 (32.6%).
Kentucky guard Brea has been launching threes with impunity lately, having attempted seven 3-pointers in four of his last five games. His ability to convert has been impressive, knocking down 15-of-33 during that stretch - a rate slightly better than his 43.5% mark on the campaign.
Brea has gone Over 2.5 made 3-pointers in five of his past eight games. BetMGM offers +105 odds on that line, edging out the +100 odds on 3+ made 3-pointers from DraftKings.
📊 Best odds: +105 via BetMGM ($10 to win $10.05)
🎯 Score prediction: Kentucky 86, Troy 70
Although Troy’s strength is its defense, the Trojans are unlikely to be able to impose their preferred pace (229th in adjusted tempo) against the run-and-gun Wildcats. Kentucky’s top-10 adjusted offensive efficiency should allow the Wildcats to pile up the points.
Kentucky’s adjusted defensive efficiency falling outside the top 50 could be the Wildcats’ undoing in a later round, but here it will merely mean that Troy has a chance to reach its meager scoring average against a blue blood program on the NCAA Tournament stage.
📊 Best odds: +31000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $3,100)
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🤖 Kentucky vs. Troy AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Kentucky vs. Troy. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Kentucky 77, Troy 65.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Kentucky 77, Troy 65
- Historical upset potential: While 14-seed upsets are infrequent, the possibility exists, adding an element of unpredictability to this matchup
- Coaching experience: Mark Pope's inaugural season at Kentucky has been a mix of highs and lows, influencing the team's consistency
- Free-throw importance: Effective free-throw shooting could be pivotal, given its historical impact on tournament outcomes
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Kentucky covering the spread (-10.5) and a total of Under 152.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Kentucky vs. Troy odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Kentucky vs. Troy odds
Here are the updated Kentucky vs. Troy odds via BetMGM in the hours ahead of tipoff:
Spread
Kentucky is an 11.5-point betting favorite on the spread. That line is up one point from the opening number.
Total
The Over/Under is down two points from the opening line and sits at 151.5. Odds are equal at -110 on either side.
Moneyline
Kentucky is a -770 favorite on the moneyline. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 88.50%.
🔢 Kentucky vs. Troy opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky -10.5 (-115) | Troy +10.5 (-105
- Moneyline: Kentucky -550 | Troy +400
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 Midwest Region expert picks
- Midwest Region betting preview
- Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville prediction
- Gonzaga vs. Georgia prediction
- McNeese vs. Clemson prediction
- Purdue vs. High Point prediction
- Illinois vs. Xavier prediction
- Kentucky vs. Troy prediction
- UCLA vs. Utah State prediction
- Tennessee vs. Wofford prediction
📺 How to watch Kentucky vs. Troy: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live, Paramount+
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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