Latest March Madness Odds: Ranking Sweet 16 Teams by Final Four Probability
After a quiet first round of the NCAA Tournament, the second round didn't disappoint with the Sweet 16 set and just 15 total games remaining in March Madness.
The latest March Madness Final Four odds have the four No. 1 seeds as the biggest favorites to win their respective regions as we're ranking Sweet 16 teams by Final Four probability.
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions and stay up to date with the March Madness Sweet 16 schedule.
🏆 Latest March Madness odds
March Madness odds via our March Madness betting sites.
🏀 Ranking Sweet 16 teams by Final Four probability
The implied probability for each team to win their region is from the latest Final Four odds from our best sports betting sites.
| Rank | Team (seed) | Final Four probability | Sweet 16 matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke (1) | 62.96% | vs. Arizona (4) |
| 2 | Houston (1) | 52.38% | vs. Purdue (4) |
| 3 | Florida (1) | 55.56% | vs. Maryland (4) |
| 4 | Auburn (1) | 56.52% | vs. Michigan (5) |
| 5 | Texas Tech (3) | 23.81% | vs. Arkansas (10) |
| 6 | Michigan State (2) | 25.64% | vs. Ole Miss (6) |
| 7 | Tennessee (2) | 28.57% | vs. Kentucky (3) |
| 8 | Maryland (4) | 16.67% | vs. Florida (1) |
| 9 | Alabama (2) | 20% | vs. BYU (6) |
| 10 | Michigan (5) | 12.50% | vs. Auburn (1) |
| 11 | Ole Miss (6) | 11.11% | vs. Michigan State (2) |
| 12 | Kentucky (3) | 12.50% | vs. Tennessee (2) |
| 13 | BYU (6) | 10.53% | vs. Alabama (2) |
| 14 | Arizona (4) | 11.11% | vs. Duke (1) |
| 15 | Purdue (4) | 11.75% | vs. Houston (1) |
| 16 | Arkansas (10) | 9.09% | vs. Texas Tech (3) |
🛑 Best Final Four bet: Houston
There's a pretty strong argument that Houston is the second-best team in the country right now after Duke. And with the Blue Devils' best odds to reach the Final Four being no longer than -170, the Cougars give you the best bang for your buck.
There's an obvious reason Houston has the longest Final Four odds of the No. 1 seeds, and it's because the best non-No. 1 seed in the country resides in the Midwest region with the Cougars. While Tennessee (+250) was among the eight teams that will win the NCAA Tournament, it plays a worse version of the same brand of basketball as the Cougars.
Both these teams thrive on defense, and Houston is No. 1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Cougars are also one of just two teams to rank top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency; the other being Duke.
With Kelvin Sampson's lineup running eight deep and consisting of an outside shooter in LJ Cryer, a dominant post player in J'Wan Roberts, a facilitating lead guard in Milos Uzan, and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in Joseph Tugler, the Cougs look ready for a Final Four run.
Houston also has a far easier Sweet 16 game against Purdue than Tennessee does against Kentucky. The Wildcats have beaten the Volunteers twice already this season.
📊 Houston's best Final Four odds: -110 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🐢 Best Final Four sleeper: Maryland
Maryland is the most important team of March Madness thus far because the Terrapins proved all the foolish people complaining about a lack of buzzer beaters in the tournament are just haters that are now choosing to complain about Derik Queen potentially travelling.
Some people don't actually like sports it seems, and the only folks who should be complaining are Colorado State fans ... I mean the Rams' now-former head coach Nikko Medved isn't even complaining. And thanks to Queen, we now have a buzzer beater that nobody will forget.
But can the Terps ride the momentum of their comeback win past No. 1 seed Florida? I think it's possible after the Gators looked so discombobulated for a solid three quarters of their win over UConn. The defending champs had Florida on the ropes and it took a Herculean effort from Walter Clayton Jr. to save them.
Defense was an issue for the Gators against the Huskies, and Maryland has the talent to at least give Florida a tough time. Queen is among the best March Madness NBA draft prospects and Ja'Kobi Gillespie is one of the best guards in the country.
Plus, the Terps' defense is sixth in adjusted efficiency and should be able to handle Texas Tech's JT Toppin if both programs reach the Elite Eight. Kevin Willard has the roster to potentially take Maryland to the Final Four for the first time since Gary Williams led the program to the national title in 2001-02.
📊 Maryland's best Final Four odds: +500 via BetRivers (bet $10 to win $50)
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🦈 Best Final Four long shot: Ole Miss
After setting a record with 14 teams selected to the NCAA Tournament, the SEC has another record with the most programs advancing to the Sweet 16 (seven). While there are plenty of options to back from the conference where it just means more, I think Ole Miss is the most interesting Final Four bet from the seven teams.
Florida and Auburn's odds are slightly too short for my liking with how much both teams struggled in the second round; Alabama's defense is a huge issue and the Crimson Tide have to go through Duke; Kentucky and Tennessee play each other before likely taking on Houston; and I don't see Arkansas pulling off two more upsets.
Meanwhile, the Rebels feel like they have a little magic on their side right now. They upset Tennessee late in the regular season, beat Arkansas on a buzzer beater in the SEC tournament and then nearly took out Auburn, and they beat North Carolina and Iowa State as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament.
Star guard Sean Pedulla on his own is starting to put together quite the March resume. Now Pedulla leads Ole Miss against a Michigan State team that didn't look sharp against No. 10 seed New Mexico. If the Rebels keep shooting with the efficiency they have from behind the arc, an upset is fathomable.
Then it's either Auburn, who they've already played close, or Michigan in the Elite Eight. It's a long shot, but I think Ole Miss has one of the better head coaches left in the NCAA Tournament (Chris Beard) and a clearer path to the Final Four than any other team with odds longer than +500.
📊 Ole Miss' best Final Four odds: +800 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $80)
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👉 Want more Sweet 16 action? Check out our March Madness Sweet 16 survivor picks and our March Madness second-chance brackets.
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🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Alabama vs. BYU prediction
- Florida vs. Maryland prediction
- Duke vs. Arizona prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas prediction
- Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan prediction
- Houston vs. Purdue prediction
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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