Louisville vs. Creighton Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today: NCAA Tournament First Round
The first round of March Madness tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET today when the No. 8 seed Louisville Cardinals (27-7) face No. 9 seed Creighton Bluejays (24-10) at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., with the game on CBS. We're breaking down this NCAA Tournament first-round matchup with our Louisville vs. Creighton prediction, odds, and preview.
The Cardinals are 2.5-point betting favorites to win, with this game feeling like a true toss-up, though the Bluejays have an advantage inside, which favors Creighton’s leading scorer Ryan Kalkbrenner. Here are our best March Madness predictions for this game.
🏀 Louisville vs. Creighton prediction & picks today
Here are my best Louisville vs. Creighton predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Louisville -2.5 (-108 via FanDuel) vs. Creighton ⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 18.5 points (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Louisville 73, Creighton 69 (+16000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
🔢 Louisville vs. Creighton updated betting action
Other than a brief earlier fluctuation, there hasn't been any line movement in the lead-up to today's Louisville vs. Creighton first-round contest.
Louisville opened as 2.5-point betting favorites, where they remain approaching game time. The line increased to -3.5 points briefly earlier this morning but has since returned to -2.5.
🏆 Best Louisville vs. Creighton pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Louisville to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐
The Cardinals, whose March Madness odds are shorter than Creighton's, received phenomenal news ahead of their NCAA Tournament matchup with the Bluejays.
The team’s best 3-pointer shooter, Reyne Smith, will return after missing the ACC Tournament. Smith is shooting 38.3% from deep this season, averaging 3.5 made threes per game.
He also has experience in the NCAA Tournament after knocking down three from beyond the arc against the Alabama Crimson Tide last season.
In an 8/9 matchup that is this evenly matched, Smith’s presence should significantly help a Cardinals’ team that loves to shoot threes. Both teams love to shoot the three, as they each rank in the top 30 in the nation in three-pointers attempted. However, neither shoots particularly well from deep, hitting fewer than 34%.
The Cardinals are underseeded in this tournament, but that doesn’t mean they’re a lock to beat an experienced Big East team.
Still, I think their well-balanced attack, featuring four players that average at least 12 points per game, will be too much for the Bluejays to overcome. The Bluejays have a clear advantage inside with Kalkbrenner, but the guard play of the Cardinals will lead them to victory.
📊 Best odds: -108 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.26)
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🔥 Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 18.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
FanDuel offers this total one point lower than the rest of our best sportsbooks. Considering that BetMGM and Caesars have the total set at 19.5 and are asking for -125 or more for the Over, this number will increase before tipoff on Thursday.
Kalbrenner averages 19.4 points per game, and he does his damage almost exclusively inside the three-point line. While the Cardinals have size down low with James Scott and Noah Waterman, I don’t see that duo doing much to slow down Kalkbrenner.
He enters the tournament scoring 15 or fewer points in each of his last two games. But he started the Big East tournament with a 32-point performance against DePaul and scored at least 20 in five of his last seven.
📊 Best odds: -114 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.77)
🎯 Exact score prediction: Louisville 73, Creighton 69
Their numerous players who can consistently knock them down make both teams so dangerous. Because of that, if one player is having an off game, two or three players are ready to pick up the slack.
The Cardinals average 78.6 points per game, and the Bluejays average 75.2. Yet, even with the offensive prowess of both teams, I expect this to be a low-scoring game.
Both teams allow fewer than 70 points per game, and there are bound to be some nerves with this being the first game of the NCAA Tournament. This game will be close, and it wouldn’t surprise me if either team wins. However, I’m backing the Cardinals.
📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,600)
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🤖 Louisville vs. Creighton AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Creighton vs. Louisville. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Louisville 75, Creighton 72.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Louisville 75, Creighton 72
- The last time these two teams met in the NCAA Tournament, Louisville beat Creighton in overtime 69-66. That game was played on March 11, 1999.
- KenPom analytics give Louisville a 60% chance of winning this matchup.
- Under the leadership of Coach Pat Kelsey, Louisville has experienced a remarkable turnaround, finishing the season with a 27-7 record.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Louisville covering the spread (-2.5) and a total of Over 145.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
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📊 Live Louisville vs. Creighton odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Louisville vs. Creighton odds
Here are the updated Louisville vs. Creighton odds from BetMGM ahead of tipoff:
Spread
Louisville is a 3.5-point betting favorite with -105 odds to cover that number and win by at least 4 points. Creighton (+3.5) is the favored side of the betting line with -115 odds.
Over/Under
The Louisville-Creighton Over/Under has ticked up slightly to 145.5 points with juice on the Under at -115 odds.
Moneyline
Louisville is -150 on the moneyline, representing a 60% implied win probability the Cardinals win outright.
🔢 Louisville vs. Creighton opening odds
- Spread: Louisville 2.5 (-115) | Creighton +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Louisville -145 | Creighton +120
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-105) | Under145.5 (-115)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 South Region expert picks
Here are our experts' best predictions for every game in the South Region
- South Region betting preview
- Auburn vs. Alabama State prediction
- Louisville vs. Creighton prediction
- UC San Diego vs. Michigan prediction
- Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction
- Ole Miss vs. North Carolina prediction
- Iowa State vs. Lipscomb prediction
- New Mexico vs. Marquette prediction
- Michigan State vs. Bryant
📺 How to watch Creighton vs. Louisville: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Thursday, March 20
🕗 Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
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