Louisville vs. Duke Prediction Tonight: ACC Final Best Bets, Odds & Score Picks
Duke - who was without the services of Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg - survived a late scare from North Carolina to advance to tonight's ACC tournament final against Louisville. Tipoff from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Our Louisville vs. Duke prediction, odds, and expert picks expect the Cardinals to keep it close against the short-handed Blue Devils. Our best sports betting sites list Duke as a 5.5-point favorite.
The Blue Devils leaned on freshman guard Kon Knueppel, who scored a team-high 17 points over 38 minutes on the floor without Flagg. They’ll need him to keep showing out if they hope to claim the conference title tonight.
💰 Louisville vs. Duke predictions, expert picks & best bets: ACC tournament final
Here are my best Louisville vs. Duke predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for the ACC tournament Final with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: Louisville +6.5 (-115 via ESPN BET) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: Khaman Maluach Under 18.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 via Hard Rock) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Exact score prediction: Louisville 77, Duke 75 (+19000 via DraftKings)
👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!
🏀 Louisville vs. Duke ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick
Here's why I'm betting on Louisville to cover the spread (+6.5) while targeting Khaman Maluach Under 18.5 points, rebounds, and assists as my best player prop bet pick for today:
✅ Louisville to cover the spread (+6.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We rode with the Cardinals to cover against Clemson last night, and they delivered, edging the Tigers by three despite closing as an underdog for the contest. Louisville’s fast pace caused problems for the much slower Clemson, which could come into play again today.
Duke doesn’t run quite as slowly as Clemson, but they played a notch slower on Friday without Flagg. Playing slow is often a problem in March, as it increases the significance of shooting variance by limiting the sample size of possessions.
Louisville could capitalize on that to cover - or even beat - Duke today. The Cardinals rank 21st in BartTorvik’s power ratings when looking at only games played since Feb. 1, which trails first-ranked Duke by a wide margin, but the Blue Devils played much less efficiently without Flagg yesterday, with their adjusted offensive efficiency (120.9) well below their season average (128.5).
📊 Best odds: -115 via ESPN BET (bet $10 to win $8.70)
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🔥 Khaman Maluach Under 18.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With Flagg out, big man Khaman Maluach finds himself in a much bigger role. But yesterday, we saw him log only 23 minutes due to foul trouble. He still managed to score 13 and nab 9 rebounds, good for 22 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA), but we’re taking advantage of an inflated total to fade him today.
When Louisville and Duke met earlier in the season, Maluach scored two and came down with two boards over just 11 minutes of action. The Blue Devils only opened up to a four-point lead by halftime, so they moved away from Maluach in the second half and blew out Louisville by 15 points.
Should Duke move away from Maluach as they did in their last game against Louisville, it’ll be quite difficult for him to clear 18.5 PRA.
📊 Best odds: -110 via Hard Rock (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🎯 Expert Louisville vs. Duke score prediction & AI projections
🔮 Expert score prediction: Louisville 77, Duke 75
🤖 AI score prediction: Duke 74, Louisville 66
🔮 Expert score prediction: Louisville 77, Duke 75
I’ve got this one at Louisville 77, Duke 75 largely because of Flagg’s absence. We saw Duke limp to a three-point win against UNC yesterday without him, far worse than the 17-point win they delivered in February and the 13-point win they put together to end the regular season. Duke only cleared Louisville by 11 in conference play, and they needed 20 from Flagg to do it.
The total for this game clocks in at 146.5, so my projected total of 152 is a bit north of that. I suspect Louisville will try to control the tempo like we saw them do against Clemson yesterday, leading to a few more points than the total suggests. A wager on the Over isn’t a bad idea today.
📊 Best odds: +19000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,900)
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🤖 AI score prediction: Duke 74, Louisville 66
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI. While ChatGPT is not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that bettors might overlook.)
🖥️ AI predictions for Louisville vs. Duke
When accounting for all of the factors at play, the projected final score is The projected final score is Duke 74, Louisville 66.
- Win probability: Duke 86% | Louisville 14%
- Projected total points: 140
- Key takeaways:
- Duke's defense has been elite, allowing just 66.4 points per game in their last five contest
- Louisville's offense has been surging, averaging 78.2 points per game in ACC play
- The absence of Duke's Cooper Flagg could impact their interior defense and rebounding
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward Duke covering the spread (-5.5) and a total of Under 146.5 points.
📊 Live Louisville vs. Duke odds & latest betting splits
Here are the latest odds for Louisville vs. Duke, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
Duke is receiving an overwhelming majority of moneyline bets (88% at BetMGM) ahead of tonight's game against Louisville. This has seen the Blue Devils' odds to win outright shorten from -250 to -275 in the hours leading up to tipoff.
🔢 Louisville vs. Duke opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for Louisville vs. Duke via Caesars.
- Spread: Louisville +6 (-110) | Duke -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville +210 | Duke -263
- Over/Under: Over 146 (-110) | Under 146 (-110)
🏆 Who will win Louisville vs. Duke?
As of Saturday afternoon, Duke is favored by 6.5 points (-105) to beat Louisville with moneyline odds of -275 at BetMGM, which suggests a 73.33% win probability for the Blue Devils. We're predicting a 77-75 win for Louisville as our final score projection.
So far, 67% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Louisville +6.5, while 59% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 147.5 points.
📺 How to watch Louisville vs. Duke tonight
📅 Date: Saturday, March 15
🕗 Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Spectrum Center (Charlotte)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
❓ Louisville vs. Duke FAQs
Who's favored to win the ACC tournament?
Duke is favored to win today’s ACC tournament championship game over Louisville.
Who is favored to win Louisville vs. Duke?
At moneyline odds of -275 (73.33% implied probability), Duke is favored to beat Louisville tonight.
What are the betting odds for Louisville vs. Duke?
Per the most recent Louisville vs. Duke betting odds at BetMGM, the spread is Louisville +6.5 (-115) | Duke -6.5 (-105), with a total of 147.5 points (-110).
What will be the final score of Louisville vs. Duke?
We're predicting a final score of Louisville 77, Duke 75 entering tonight's matchup at the Spectrum Center.
What time is Louisville vs. Duke tonight?
Tonight’s Louisville vs. Duke game is scheduled to tip-off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET.
⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites
Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
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