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March Madness Bracket Tips for Beginners: Our Best Strategies to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: March 20, 2025 9:49 AM EDT • 4 min 26 sec read.

March Madness Brackets for Beginners: Simple Tips & Strategies to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool
Pictured: Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) moves Purdue up on the bracket after defeating the Tennessee Volunteers. Photo by Grace Hollars / IndyStar via Imagn Images.

March Madness is finally here, with the tournament beginning today. Millions will fill out brackets over the next few days, so how can you stand out among the crowd?

Our March Madness bracket tips and strategies aim to help beginners be successful by highlighting historical trends.

While we don't know the secret to filling out the perfect bracket - nobody does, or else Warren Buffett would be down $1 billion - we do know the secret to identifying champions. At the end of the day, a successful winner selection will go a long way in helping you win your bracket pool.

👉 Check out SBR's free printable March Madness bracket.

💡 Beginner tips for March Madness brackets

😭 First weekend upset picks are fine

There are plenty of complex analytics that'll be thrown around throughout March Madness, even some in this article. However, the single-most important statistic relates to the first weekend of games. The opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament produce more upsets because they feature more games - mind blowing, right? As such, you'll want to pick accordingly.

The most even matchups are naturally ones where teams square off against similarly-seeded opponents (e.g. the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups). However, they're hardly classified as upsets. We're more interested in the all-time results - the stunning scores that leave spectators speechless, the ones that define tournaments and keep us coming back year after year.

The most common upset is the 6 vs. 11 showdown, where the latter has won at a 39.1% clip since 1985, according to the NCAA. Another flier fans like to take frequently comes in the form of a 12 eliminating a 5. The lower-seed has won 35.26% of these first-round games, including at least one victory from a 12-seed in 33 of the last 39 tournaments.

The No. 13 seed (21.15%) and No. 14 seed (14.74%) also seem to find relative success early, whereas No. 15 and No. 16 seeds have only won a combined 13 games in the Round of 64.

To sum it all up, trends tell us that picking upsets early can be a profitable strategy. So it's wise to include at least a few surprising results early in your bracket.

4️⃣ Have parity in your Final Four

The NCAA Tournament can appear to favor chalk over anything else when it comes to the Final Four, but I assure you, that's not always the case. While 25 of the past 39 national championship teams were No. 1 seeds - including 13 of the last 17 - the other top seeds often struggle throughout the tournament.

March Madness has witnessed all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four just once (2008) since the current format was introduced. That year can be viewed as an anomaly, especially in the modern era in college athletics. The introduction of NIL and the transfer portal are sure to lead to more parity across the country.

Furthermore, there have only been five NCAA Tournaments that featured three No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. In other words, it happens once in a blue moon, so don't select only the chalk squads to reach San Antonio. Picking one or two top seeds to reach the last weekend is fine, otherwise you're playing a risky game of chance with your bracket.

Final Four odds can also help determine which teams are the safest bets to make it to the NCAA Tournament's final weekend.

A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!
A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!

✅ Reference KenPom

KenPom is a group of statistics - namely adjusted efficiency margin (NetRtg) - put together by Ken Pomeroy to measure schools' true strengths. The KenPom ratings rank teams based on the aforementioned adjusted efficiency. The ratings can also show offensive efficiency (ORtg) and defensive efficiency (DRtg), adjusted tempo (AdjT), luck, and strength of schedule.

Using KenPom rankings to predict the eventual champion has been an effective approach over the years. Dating back to 2001, 21 of the last 23 title winners ranked in the top 21 in offensive rating and the top 37 in defensive rating.

Thus, it's no surprise KenPom is one of the more popular ways to pick champions. Referencing these ratings is a must for any individual looking to win their bracket challenge.

👟 Identify stylistic mismatches using the trapezoid

This headline will sound straight out of a science-fiction film for those who are new to the sport. However, seasoned college basketball fans already know what I'm talking about when I reference the "Trapezoid of Excellence."

Similar to KenPom, the trapezoid is another popular method used by fans to make March Madness selections. A term coined by college basketball commentator Ryan Hammer, the "Trapezoid of Excellence" is a metaphorical shape used to highlight teams that play with championship-level efficiency at a versatile pace.

While the data for the trapezoid isn't as consistent or proven against the test of time, the last six national champions resided inside the trapezoid. Further, it helps to highlight stylistic mismatches for teams who haven't met previously - or even which mid-majors can make a run.

Keep an eye on Hammer's social media to find the latest and greatest geometrical graph before submitting your selections.

🧠 Go with your gut

This is the least analytical, but perhaps most important, tip for beginners: go with your gut.

Are you picking a team based on your favorite color? The mascot? Blindfolded? The best parts of the NCAA Tournament are the parity and unpredictability.

While we wouldn't necessarily recommend using the aforementioned strategies to make your selections, we also can't argue against them considering they could be successful. There is no right or wrong way to fill out a bracket (within reason), so listen to your gut ... no matter how improbable the pick. Isn't that what March Madness is all about?

🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

March Madness OddsWooden Award OddsACC OddsBig 12 OddsBig Ten Odds
Final Four OddsMarch Madness MVP OddsBig East OddsPac-12 OddsSEC Odds

👑 Best March Madness betting sites

Ready to place your March Madness bets? Check out the best March Madness betting promos from our best March Madness betting sites, as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review.

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.