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March Madness Odds & Predictions: How Many Buzzer-Beaters Will There Be in 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: March 18, 2025 1:53 PM EDT • 4 min 60 sec read.

March Madness Buzzer-Beaters: How Many Game-Winning Shots Will There Be in NCAA Tournament?
Pictured: Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Jalen Suggs (1) celebrates making the game-winning shot against the UCLA Bruins in the Final Four of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Photo by Robert Deutsch via Imagn Images.

March Madness has featured 131 game-winning shots in the final seconds of games, but only 46 can claim to be true last-second shots. This means dating back to 1944, the NCAA Tournament has featured 0.58 buzzer-beaters each year.

Our March Madness buzzer-beater odds analyze the history of last-second winners at the NCAA Tournament to determine this year's best bets in the special prop market.

👉 Need help with your bracket? Check out our March Madness expert bracket and our guide on how to fill out a March Madness bracket.

🏀 How often do buzzer-beaters happen in March Madness?

There have been 46 true buzzer-beaters in March Madness history, with an average of 0.58 per year since 1944. However, these numbers increase to 131 and 1.64, respectively, when including game-winning shots hit inside the final five seconds.

A true buzzer-beater is classified as a last-second made shot at the buzzer, not allowing for a response from the opposing team. One caveat is the NCAA implemented a running clock from 1944 to 1993. It wasn't until 1993 that the governing body of college athletics agreed to stop the clock briefly following successful baskets.

As such, many shots in the list of 131 can be considered true buzzer-beaters despite the clock not reading 0.0. Only game winners hit post-1993 with time remaining are disqualified from being a true buzzer-beater. However, for the sake of brevity, our findings will focus on the NCAA's 46 recognized buzzer-beaters.

The first round is, rather unsurprisingly, home to nearly half of these shots, with 19 of 46 (41.30%) coming in the opening two days of tournament play. March Madness has also featured 13 second-round buzzer-beaters, bringing the total to 32 in the first weekend alone.

The second weekend - the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight - features eight. This means just 13.04% of all buzzer-beaters occur in the Final Four or national championship. Perhaps the most memorable buzzer-beater of all time at this stage was Kris Jenkins' over North Carolina in the 2016 national title.

🚨 How many buzzer-beaters have happened in March Madness?

  • Total March Madness buzzer-beaters: 46 all-time
  • First-round buzzer-beaters: 19 all-time (2 in the last 10 tournaments)
  • Most buzzer-beaters in one tournament: 4 in 1990 and 2016
  • Last March Madness buzzer-beater: San Diego State's Lamont Butler vs. Florida Atlantic (2023)

👉 Want to relive the greatest March Madness game-winners? Check out our ranking of the best buzzer-beaters in NCAA Tournament history.

A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!
A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!

📊 Will there be a March Madness buzzer-beater in 2025? Betting odds & predictions

Here are the latest March Madness buzzer-beater odds from DraftKings ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, along with the implied probability for each outcome:

BetOddsImplied probability
Will there be a buzzer-beater in the NCAA Tournament?+10050%
Will there be a buzzer-beater in the First Four?+20004.76%
Will there be a buzzer-beater in the first round?+30025%
Will there be a buzzer-beater on Day 1?+60014.29%
Will there be a buzzer-beater on Day 2?+60014.29%

👉 Want to bet on the NCAA Tournament? Check out the latest March Madness odds and Final Four odds.  

🚨 Will there be a buzzer-beater in the NCAA Tournament?

📊 Odds: +100 (50% chance)

While Colorado's KJ Simpson did his best to deliver the goods in the 2024 NCAA Tournament with a late field goal against Florida, his tying bucket didn't meet the requirements of a true buzzer-beater. As such, many are left wondering whether or not this year's competition will deliver on the promised madness.

Lovers of chaos rejoice as history tells us there will be a buzzer-beater in this year's field. The NCAA Tournament failed to produce buzzer-beaters in back-to-back competitions only twice since 2000 (2004-05 and 2012-13).

Albeit marginal, buzzer-beaters have been more frequent since the turn of the century. The tournament has produced 0.73 per year since 2000, as opposed to 0.53 from 1944-1999.

🔮 Prediction: Yes (+100)

🚨 Will there be a buzzer-beater in the First Four?

📊 Odds: +2000 (4.76% chance)

The First Four has yet to produce a game-winning buzzer-beater since its formal introduction in 2011.

Mississippi Valley State hit a last-second shot at the horn in 2012 against Western Kentucky, but it was to cut the lead from three to one. Notre Dame sunk a game-winning layup against Rutgers in 2OT in the 2022 First Four, but two seconds remained. Those are the closest any team has come to a buzzer-beater at this stage.

The average margin of victory in the First Four is 8.7 points. Only nine games were decided by three points or fewer in the de facto play-in round. As such, we don't believe +2000 odds that imply a 4.75% probability is enough juice for the squeeze.

🔮 Prediction: No

🚨 Will there be a buzzer-beater in the first round?

📊 Odds: +300 (25% chance)

All-time history says yes. As we discussed earlier, 19 of 46 true buzzer-beaters happened in the first round. However, opening round late winners haven't been as frequent lately.

There have been only two first-round buzzer-beaters over the last 10 tournaments. The Round of 64 hasn't produced one since the chaotic 2016 NCAA Tournament that saw Iowa and Northern Iowa advance at the death. As such, we're going to lean 'no' once again.

There isn't enough parity in the first round to recommend taking a flier on this bet at +300 odds. We wouldn't play this at the current number, or anything below +400 (20% implied probability).

🔮 Prediction: No

🚨 Will there be a buzzer-beater on Day 1?

📊 Odds: +600 (14.29% chance)

It'd be a bit contradictory to turn around and predict a Day 1 buzzer-beater after the last answer, no?

I'm going to stick with 'no' here considering the most recent last-second winner we saw on the first day of NCAA Tournament action was in 2010. 'Yes' isn't trading at favorable enough odds to entice bettors given the trends.

🔮 Prediction: No

🚨Will there be a buzzer-beater on Day 2?

📊 Odds: +600 (14.29% chance)

These odds are the same as the opening day, despite Day 2 being more primed for a buzzer-beater for multiple reasons. Our best sportsbooks expect a more competitive playing field on the second day. This leads to closer games - and more buzzer-beating opportunities - with more games currently having 5-point spreads or less.

Another reason to believe Day 2 has more upset potential is because that's when the last first-round buzzer-beaters happened. As such, if you're going to predict a first-round buzzer-beater will happen, take a flier on the second day of tournament action.

🔮 Prediction: No

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.