March Madness Final Four Expert Picks Today: Our Predictions & Best Bets for This Week
There are just three games remaining in the NCAA Tournament, and all four teams still alive are No. 1 seeds, with this being just the second time in March Madness history that the Final Four is made up of the four best teams in the country.
With this set up to be an all-time penultimate round between the four programs that led the March Madness odds for much of the season, our March Madness Final Four expert picks for today's action are keying in on the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament and the best in college basketball.
🏀 March Madness Final Four expert picks & best bets for today
Here are my five best bets for the Final Four ahead of the penultimate round of the NCAA Tournament, with odds from our best sports betting sites.
🏆 Best moneyline bet: Auburn (+130 via bet365)
🏆 Best spread bet: Duke -5 (-110 via bet365)
🏆 Best Over/Under bet: Auburn vs. Florida Under 160 (-110 via Caesars)
🏆 Best player prop bet: Cooper Flagg Over 7.5 rebounds (-135 via BetMGM)
🏆 Best parlay bet: Four-leg parlay (+603 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Best Final Four picks & predictions today
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💸 Best Final Four moneyline bet: Auburn (+130) ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +130 via bet365 ($10 bet to pay $13 profit)
The two best teams in the SEC meet for the second time this season with Auburn poised to avenge its Feb. 8 loss to Florida. While the Gators are the favorites to beat the Tigers again, they've had some scares in the NCAA Tournament, needing comebacks against both UConn and Texas Tech.
Both of those teams are top 15 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric and caused issues for a Florida defense that's been up and down this season ... Auburn is No. 3 by that metric. With Johni Broome set to play after hyperextending his elbow against Michigan State, the Tigers have the offensive talent to keep up with Florida while deploying the better defense.
Given Duke's ML odds to beat Houston (-250), and there not being much reason to bet against the Blue Devils, Auburn is the best moneyline value at our March Madness betting sites. I have the Tigers taking this game 77-75.
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⚖️ Best Final Four spread bet: Duke -5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -110 via bet365 ($10 bet to pay $9.09 profit)
If you ask me, the real national championship game is happening in the Final Four. Duke and Houston have been the two best teams in the country for the last two months, and their matchup should have all basketball fans salivating at the thought of seeing Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg against the No. 1 defense in the country.
However, I don't see how Houston keeps this close down the stretch. Even if this is a one-possession game with a minute left, the Cougars will have to foul to put Duke on the line, which will inevitably lead to them covering. Why am I so confident in the Blue Devils if I think these are the top two teams in college basketball? Well, length.
For as suffocating as Kelvin Sampson's defense is, Duke has such an advantage with its size. The Cougars may run about eight deep but don't have a single player over 6-foot-7 playing more than 20 minutes. Meanwhile, Duke's starting lineup has an average height of over 6-foot-7 and doesn't play a sub shorter than 6-foot-5. The Blue Devils' length and athleticism advantage should be the difference.
📉 Best Final Four Over/Under bet: Auburn vs. Florida Under 160 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 bet to pay $9.09 profit)
It's pretty obvious why this game total is so high; these two combined for 171 earlier in the season and have two of the best offenses in college basketball. But 160 is too high for my liking, especially with them taking the court in the Alamodome in San Antonio, a venue that has a reputation for being more difficult to shoot in.
Auburn has also been holding it down on defense lately and sits No. 8 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tigers haven't allowed more than 70 points in their last six games, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see head coach Bruce Pearl take a slow-paced approach against a Florida team that generally wants to turn the game into a track meet.
If Auburn contains Walter Clayton Jr. to some degree, and big man Alex Condon's ankle continues to impact him, I think Auburn can keep the Gators' offense quieter than we're used to. And as an Auburn backer, for Pearl's team to win this Under needs to hit because if it goes Over, it means the Tigers' defense couldn't contain Florida. Auburn has hit the Over just once in its last six games.
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🎯 Best Final Four player prop bet: Cooper Flagg Over 7.5 rebounds (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -135 via BetMGM ($10 bet to pay $7.41 profit)
What makes Duke such an impossible matchup for Houston, beyond just the length of the Blue Devils, is the fact that even if the Cougars sell out to slow Flagg down, the freshman phenom is surrounded by high-end scorers. But I do expect Sampson to take that approach and try to keep the NBA draft odds favorite in check.
But what makes Flagg such a star is that he's as good a defender, passer, and rebounder as he is a scorer, and he'll continue to impact the game regardless of what Houston's defense does. His versatile skill set has been on full display in the NCAA Tournament, too, with him averaging 19.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.3 APG.
Flagg's 6-foot-9 frame and over 7-foot long wingspan should help him own the glass against a Houston team that doesn't have much size and ranks outside the top 100 nationally in rebounds per game (36.7). Look for Flagg to go Over 7.5 rebounds for the 17th time this season.
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🎰 Best Final Four parlay bet: Four-leg parlay (+603) ⭐
🚨 Leg 1: Broome Over 9.5 rebounds (-174)
🚨 Leg 2: Auburn ML (+122)
🚨 Leg 3: Duke -5.5 (-106)
🚨 Leg 4: Cooper Flagg Over 3.5 assists (-275)
📊 Best odds: +603 via FanDuel ($10 bet to pay $60.30 profit)
If Auburn is going to pull off the upset and reach the championship game, Broome needs to continue to be a double-double machine. The fifth-year senior is averaging 10.9 RPG this season and has pulled down 11-plus boards in all four NCAA Tournament games while averaging 13.3 RPG during March Madness.
The only player in the country better than Broome is Flagg, who would be averaging more assists if his teammates could finish more consistently at the rim. But even with a few beautiful would-be apples not resulting in points, the freshman has gone Over 3.5 assists in three of four games in the tournament, and he likely will need to again if Duke is going to beat Houston by six-plus points.
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