March Madness 1st Round Underdogs: Ranking Every 13-16 Seed By Upset Potential

Cinderella stories and upset specials are what make March Madness a unique event. The unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament is what keeps fans coming back year after year. Finding these diamonds in the rough before they are dug up can be extremely profitable.

Our March Madness first-round underdogs preview ranks the No. 13 seeds through the No. 16 seeds based on their upset potential. Our rankings assess the most overlooked programs in the 64-team tournament field in search of the most probable upset specials ahead of today's first-round tipoff.

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🏀 March Madness underdog upset rankings

🦴 1. Yale Bulldogs (13-seed)

See Phil Wood's Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction.

Yale draws Texas A&M in the opening round, a strong matchup for a Bulldogs team that beat Auburn at this stage last season. The Aggies are on high alert as the Ivy League representative is one of the most popular upset picks in the first round.

Yale's ability to crash the defensive glass counters Texas A&M's biggest strength: rebounding ability. The Bulldogs also have plenty of shooters in their ranks and play disciplined basketball. James Jones' men are fundamentally sound and reliant on opposing mistakes to kickstart runs. In other words, Yale is everything you want in a tournament team.

Texas A&M vs. Yale odds:

🐆 2. High Point Panthers (13-seed)

See Brenden Schaeffer's Purdue vs. High Point prediction.

High Point is another team on bracket buster watch. The Panthers boast a top-25 offense in adjusted efficiency (118.5) and points per game (81.7). Overall, they have the third-highest NET rating among teams seeded 13 or lower (plus-9.35).

High Point is one of the few mid-majors to boast a win over a top-100 team (North Texas), and coupled with a 29-5 record, it's easy to see why it is a fan favorite. However, with all due respect to the Panthers, this pick is more about fading their opponent. After all, Purdue failed to make it out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament in three of its last eight tries.

Purdue vs. High Point odds:

🦌 3. Grand Canyon Antelopes (13-seed)

See Isaiah Sirois' Maryland vs. Grand Canyon prediction.

Grand Canyon stunned Saint Mary's in the Round of 64 last season, winning the battle of contrasting styles rather convincingly. Thus, the Antelopes are garnering attention again as an underseeded mid-major with a unique identity.

Bryce Drew's men are a matchup nightmare for slower teams - such as the Gaels - as they rank 15th in adjusted tempo. Unfortunately for Grand Canyon, it drew the short end of the stick in Maryland, which knows how to play fast (57th in AdjT). The one advantage the Antelopes have is they're a deeper team than the Terrapins, whose strength lies solely in their starting five.

Maryland vs. Grand Canyon odds:

🦬 4. Lipscomb Bisons (14-seed)

See Phil Wood's Iowa State vs. Lipscomb prediction.

Lipscomb is one of those teams that looks much better on paper than it does in practice. The Bisons have excellent underlying statistics, boasting a higher NET rating than a handful of power-conference teams. However, in the two games Lipscomb played against top-100 opposition, it was beaten handily (minus-45 point differential against Arkansas and Kentucky).

The Bisons take on Iowa State in the first round. The Cyclones looked poised for a Final Four run at one point this season, but injuries have derailed their campaign in the months since. They'll be without their second-leading scorer, Keshon Gilbert, for the NCAA Tournament, and this has some believing Iowa State could be on upset watch with Lipscomb smelling blood in the water.

Iowa State vs. Lipscomb odds:

🦘 5. Akron Zips (13-seed)

See Mike Spector's Arizona vs. Akron prediction.

Akron was the team that everybody swore they would take in the first round. The Zips are one of the country's hottest teams - having won 19 of their last 20 games - and also one of the most unique. John Groce's roster is one of the smallest in D-I, with his tallest player standing 6-foot-8, but he uses size to his advantage.

Akron plays quick (16th in AdjT) and gives opponents trouble with guard-heavy sets. Unfortunately for the Zips, they drew the worst possible opponent (Arizona) in the opening round. The Wildcats are happy to play an up-tempo game and have the athleticism and size to outmatch Akron. It's a nightmare scenario for the Zips, but talent alone lands them high on our list.

Arizona vs. Akron odds:

🪶 6. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (14-seed)

See Isaiah Sirois' Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction.

UNC Wilmington is another team that keeps coaches up at night due to their tempo. However, unlike teams we've previously discussed, the Seahawks give opponents slow deaths. They're essentially a budget version of Houston - and I mean that in the nicest, most respectful way - playing a meticulously efficient game at both ends of the floor.

Similar to Akron, Grand Canyon, and many other mid-majors, though, UNC Wilmington got another bad draw. The Seahawks square off against KenPom darling Texas Tech. The Red Raiders play a similar, more efficient game than UNC Wilmington, all with better athletes. Texas Tech is a 2-seed disguised as a 3-seed in this tournament, and that's dangerous for the Seahawks.

Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington odds:

⚔️ 7. Troy Trojans (14-seed)

See Brenden Schaeffer's Kentucky vs. Troy prediction.

Troy meets Kentucky in the first round, and while the Wildcats have a history of disappointing displays in March, they aren't John Calipari's choke artists any longer. Even if they were, the Trojans don't necessarily have the tools to pull off upsets of this caliber. Scott Cross' squad doesn't shoot the 3-ball well (30%), and its turnover rate is alarmingly high (19%).

Troy grabs offensive boards well but Kentucky counters that lone strength by also being solid on the glass. The Trojans have not played well against power-conference opponents, losing by an average of 19 points to Arkansas, Houston, and Oregon. The writing is seemingly on the wall for Troy as it doesn't stack up well with its opponent.

Kentucky vs. Troy odds:

🐶 8. Bryant Bulldogs (15-seed)

When discussing the so-called statistical bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the March Madness bracket, outliers become few and far between. However, Bryant has dangerous qualities. The Bulldogs play at the seventh-highest tempo in the nation and they are excellent at getting second-chance points.

Bryant's offensive and defensive efficiencies are nothing special, but they have atypical size for a squad seeded this low. Players like Earl Timberlake can take over games. As is the case with so many before them, though, the Bulldogs got a bad draw against Tom Izzo's in-form Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State vs. Bryant odds:

🐕 9. Wofford Terriers (15-seed)

See Brenden Schaeffer's Tennessee vs. Wofford prediction.

It's important to say that this is the part of the list where improbable matchups start to look impossible. While there is a lot to like about Wofford - namely experience and guard play - Dwight Perry's team might be the most incosistent team in the field.

Senior Corey Tripp has the talent to keep the Terriers in games with his offensive output. That being said, Tennessee is better in every facet of the game. Wofford hasn't won more than three straight all season, and they come into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game streak. This trend will likely continue as the Volunteers cruise into the Round of 32.

Tennessee vs. Wofford odds:

🐮 10. Omaha Mavericks (15-seed)

See Isaiah Sirois' St. John's vs. Omaha prediction.

Omaha isn't your typical 15-seed. The Mavericks have a top-100 offense nationally and it has kept them in quite a few games this season, most notably against Minnesota and UNLV.

Iowa State's dominant 83-51 win over Omaha makes it wildly unlikely that the Mavericks can upset a true contender. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, they run into a buzzsaw in the first round in Rick Pitino's St. John's squad. The Red Storm have the perfect answer - the country's No. 1 defense - to Omaha's offense.

St. John's vs. Omaha prediction:

🇺🇸 11. Robert Morris Colonials (15-seed)

See Mike Spector's Alabama vs. Robert Morris prediction.

Perhaps the biggest advantage Robert Morris takes into its matchup with Alabama is geographical. The Colonials play basketball in Moon Township, Pa., a two-hour drive from Cleveland. Robert Morris will have plenty of traveling fans with this being just its fourth tournament appearance since the early '90s.

However, the home court won't help the Colonials combat one of the nation's most feared teams. The Crimson Tide play at an unprecedented pace that, when mixed with its top 31 offensive and defensive efficiencies, makes them incredibly difficult to beat.

Alabama vs. Robert Morris odds:

🐻 12. Montana Grizzlies (14-seed)

See Mike Spector's Wisconsin vs. Montana prediction.

Montana might be the worst team in the tournament, but being a 14-seed earns it a marginally easier opponent than the four 16-seeds. The Grizzlies have a resume that includes losses to Northern Iowa, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State by 106 points. For those counting at home, that's a minus-26.5 point differential per game against four quality opponents.

Travis DeCuire's men are in scorching form, and they shoot the ball well. However, it's simply impossible to back a team with a track record as bad as Montana's this season. This is especially true when the Grizzlies are lined up against a Wisconsin squad that beat Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament.

Wisconsin vs. Montana odds:

🐝 13. Alabama State Hornets (16-seed)

See Phil Wood's Auburn vs. Alabama State prediction.

Alabama State has already gotten its March Madness campaign underway, using a late full-court heave to lead to a game-winning layup over Saint Francis in the First Four. This experience gives the Hornets an edge over the other No. 16 seeds, as they've already gotten a taste of the tournament and gotten the nerves out of their systems.

They are also matched up against an in-state foe in Auburn, where head coach Tony Madlock spent four years as an assistant. Do these tidbits give Alabama State a better shot at beating the No. 1 overall seed? No, not at all, but there's nothing I can say to change your mind about the Hornets' chances in the first round.

Auburn vs. Alabama State odds:

🗡️ 14. Norfolk State Spartans (16-seed)

Norfolk State isn't the lowest-rated KenPom team in the 64-team field, and that's about all I can say to give it an edge over the other teams. The Spartans played a tough schedule that featured notable competition, such as Baylor, Grand Canyon, High Point, and Tennessee.

This experience means Florida likely won't throw anything at Norfolk State that it hasn't seen before. The problem is trying to slow down the Gators. In addition to being the most efficient offensive team in the country, Todd Golden's men are also the hottest team in America right now. The Spartans' double-digit losses to the Antelopes, Bears, and Volunteers don't exactly inspire.

Florida vs. Norfolk State odds:

🐾 15. SIU Edwardsville Cougars (16-seed)

See Brenden Schaeffer's Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville prediction.

SIU Edwardsville is making its NCAA Tournament debut against Kelvin Sampson's juggernaut. The Cougars will be the second-best team on the floor in everything, including nickname, as Houston is one of the most complete teams in the country.

In addition to boasting the No. 2 defensive efficiency, the top-ranked Cougars shoot the 3-pointer at an elite clip and play a suffocatingly slow tempo. This is perhaps why Auburn was the only team to beat Houston in regulation this season. Unfortunately, those shoes are too big for SIU Edwardsville to fill in their debut dance.

Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville odds:

❓16. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (16-seed)

Mount St. Mary's beat American U 83-72 Wednesday night, and now has the pleasure of losing to Duke in the first round. While Cooper Flagg's status is still up in the air, the Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament without him, it goes without saying they can get by a 12-loss team too.

Look for KenPom's NetRtg unicorn to be a 20-plus point favorite against either team coming out of the First Four. Duke isn't as susceptible to an upset as the two top seeds (Purdue, Virginia) that have been stunned in the opening round. As such, we're giving the Eagles or Mountaineers the lowest chance of upsetting the Blue Devils.

🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips

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🗓️ NCAA Tournament schedule and odds

Odds via FanDuel as of Wednesday, March 19.

Thursday, March 20

• No. 4 seed Purdue (-7.5) vs. No. 13 seed High Point at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV)
• No. 3 seed Wisconsin (-17.5) vs. No. 14 seed Montana at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• No. 1 seed Houston (-28.5) vs. No. 16 seed SIU Edwardsville at 2 p.m. ET (TBS)
• No. 1 seed Auburn (-31.5) vs. No. 16 seed Alabama State at 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS)
• No. 2 seed Tennessee (-18.5) vs. No. 15 seed Wofford at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT)
• No. 4 seed Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. No. 13 seed Yale at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS)
• No. 2 seed St. John's (-18.5) vs. No. 15 seed Omaha at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS)
• No. 3 seed Texas Tech (-15.5) vs. No. 14 seed Montana at 10:10 p.m. ET (TNT)

Friday, March 21

• No. 2 seed Alabama (-22.5) vs. No. 15 seed Robert Morris at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV)
• No. 3 seed Iowa State (-14.5) vs. No. 14 seed Lipscomb at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
• No. 1 seed Duke (-TBD) vs. No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary's at 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS)
• No. 4 seed Maryland (-10.5) vs. No. 13 seed Grand Canyon at 4:35 p.m. ET (TBS)
• No. 1 seed Florida (-28.5) vs. No. 16 seed Norfolk State at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT)
• No. 3 seed Kentucky (-11.5) vs. No. 14 seed Troy at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS)
• No. 4 seed Arizona (-13.5) vs. No. 13 seed Akron at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV)
• No. 2 seed Michigan State (-17.5) vs. No. 15 seed Bryant at 10 p.m. ET (TBS)

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