March Madness Top Seeds: How Often Do No. 1 Seeds Win NCAA Tournament?
Every year, 68 teams enter the NCAA Tournament with hopes of cutting down the nets. But most of the time, only four teams truly have a shot at winning March Madness. That's because the No. 1 seed has dominated the tournament over the years, as I broke down in my look at March Madness stats and records. But just how often do top seeds win it all, and should you pick one to win your March Madness bracket?
1️⃣ Who are the No. 1 seeds in the 2025 NCAA Tournament?
This year, the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament are Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida. All four teams will face a No. 16 seed in the first round before facing a No. 8 or No. 9 seed in the second round.
| No. 1 seeds (record) | Tournament region | First-round opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Auburn (28-5) | South Region | Alabama St/Saint Francis |
| Duke (31-3) | East Region | American/Mount St. Mary's |
| Houston (30-4) | Midwest Region | SIU Edwardsville |
| Florida (30-4) | West Region | Norfolk State |
🏆 How often does a No. 1 seed win March Madness?
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a No. 1 seed has won the national championship in 25 of 39 NCAA Tournaments. That's a 64% clip. Despite the "madness" of March, the best teams often do come out on top.
That number has even improved in recent years, with 13 of the last 17 winners entering the tournament as a No. 1 seed (76.5%). That's a change from before that expansion in 1985, when only five top seeds made the championship game in the six prior years and only two won it all.
🏀 How far do No. 1 seeds advance in NCAA Tournament?
Even if they don't win it all, deep runs are far from unheard of for the top seeds in March Madness.
According to NCAA.com, 62 top seeds have reached the Final Four in the history of the NCAA Tournament. That's almost as many as the combined appearances for the No. 2 seed (32), No. 3 seed (17), and No. 4 seed (15).
That said, it's rare for all four top seeds to reach the semifinal round. That's happened just once in NCAA Tournament history (2008), which was nearly two decades ago.
The last time all four failed to even reach the Elite Eight wasn't so long ago, either. Two years ago, no top seed advanced beyond the Sweet 16, with one bowing out in the second round (Kansas) and one in the opening round (Purdue).
🗑️ How often do No. 1 seeds get upset in NCAA Tournament first round?
While not every top seed navigates its way through the entire bracket, falling out of contention early doesn't happen often. Across 156 matchups between the No. 16 seed and the No. 1 seed, only twice has the underdog come out on top.
In 2018, Tony Bennett's Virginia squad suffered a historic 74-54 loss to No. 16 UMBC in the opening round - the first time a 16-seed had ever won in the first round. Just two years ago, Matt Painter's Purdue squad fell to No. 16 FDU in a similarly shocking 63-58 loss.
Second-round exits are a little more frequent, as we had seen at least one No. 1 seed lost in the Round of 32 in three consecutive tournaments before last year.
Here's a look at every No. 1 seed to lose in the first two rounds over the last 15 years:
| No. 1 seed (year) | Opponent (round) | Final score |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue (2023) | No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (first) | L, 63-58 |
| Kansas (2023) | No. 8 Arkansas (second) | L, 72-71 |
| Baylor (2022) | No. 8 North Carolina (second) | L, 93-86 (OT) |
| Illinois (2021) | No. 8 Loyola Chicago (second) | L, 71-58 |
| Xavier (2018) | No. 9 Florida State (second) | L, 75-70 |
| Virginia (2018) | No. 16 UMBC (first) | L, 74-54 |
| Villanova (2017) | No. 8 Wisconsin (second) | L, 65-62 |
| Villanova (2015) | No. 8 NC State (second) | L, 71-68 |
| Wichita State (2014) | No. 8 Kentucky (second) | L, 78-76 |
| Gonzaga (2013) | No. 9 Wichita State (second) | L, 76-70 |
| Pittsburgh (2011) | No. 8 Butler (second) | L, 71-70 |
| Kansas (2010) | No. 9 Northern Iowa (second) | L, 69-67 |
🤔 Should you pick a No. 1 seed to win your March Madness bracket?
History tells us that No. 1 seeds are the safest pick to win it all. With 64% of champions coming from the top seed line since 1985, it's a solid strategy to have at least one in your Final Four and title game - and potentially cutting down the nets.
However, going all-chalk can backfire: all four No. 1 seeds have only reached the Final Four once (2008). So consider mixing in a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the semifinals of your bracket to give yourself an edge over the competition ... even if you pick a top seed in the end.
Our Gabe Henderson answers that question in his March Madness bracket advice.
📊 March Madness odds to win NCAA Tournament
📅March Madness key dates
- Selection Sunday: March 16
- First Four: March 18-19
- First round: March 20-21
- Second round: March 22-23
- Sweet 16: March 27-28
- Elite Eight: March 29-30
- Final Four: Saturday, April 5
- National championship game: Monday, April 7
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