March Madness Long Shots: Ranking Underdogs by Final Four Odds Entering Sweet 16
The NCAA Tournament has reached the Sweet 16, with the contenders separating themselves from the pretenders over the first weekend. With just 15 games remaining before a champion is crowned, are there any Cinderellas capable of making an even deeper run?
Our March Madness long shots rank the remaining underdogs based on Final Four odds and break down their chances to advance. The 2025 NCAA Tournament has been chalky thus far, with all four No. 1 seeds remaining.
The top seeds have minus-money odds to reach the Final Four at our best March Madness betting sites, but what about the rest of the field?
👉 Check out the March Madness Sweet 16 schedule and odds
📊 Live 2025 March Madness odds
🐶 Ranking March Madness underdogs
We're ranking the remaining eight NCAA Tournament underdogs based on their odds of reaching the Final Four. Odds are via BetMGM as of Monday, March 24.
🐢 1. Maryland Terrapins
Derik Queen's controversial buzzer-beater to sink Colorado State lifted Maryland into the Sweet 16. The Terrapins have one of the most talented starting rotations in college basketball, but depth is a concern, especially this late in the tournament.
Nevertheless, the talent of Kevin Willard's group alone gives Maryland the best odds of the underdogs. The Terrapins take on the red-hot Florida Gators in the Sweet 16. The No. 1 seed is a 6.5-point favorite over its No. 4 seed counterpart at our best sports betting sites.
Final Four odds: +450 ($10 to win $45)
🐺 2. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan was a popular upset pick in both the first and second rounds. The Wolverines survived a late comeback from UC San Diego and stormed back to beat Texas A&M to remain firmly in the mix.
The Big Ten champions are one of the most in-form teams remaining in the field, but they have only a 13.33% implied probability of reaching the third weekend. Michigan squares off against the NCAA Tournament's top seed, Auburn, in the Sweet 16. The Tigers are 8.5-point favorites over the Wolverines.
Final Four odds: +650 ($10 to win $65)
🚂 3. Purdue Boilermakers
Similar to Michigan, Purdue has been overlooked by many in this tournament. However, the Big Ten powerhouse has come out swinging with double-digit wins over High Point and McNeese. Braden Smith has yet to fully find his rhythm, and if he does, he's capable of taking over games in a way only few across the country can.
The Boilermakers are 4-4 on the year against ranked opposition, though they'll need to be at their best if they want to advance further into the tournament. Matt Painter's squad is a 7.5-point underdog against the top seed in the Midwest Region, the Houston Cougars.
Final Four odds: +675 ($10 to win $67.50)
🐱 4. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona survived a nail-biter against Oregon in the second round. The Wildcats came back from down double-digits early to advance to the second weekend behind Caleb Love's 29 points and nine rebounds. If the former North Carolina guard is playing at that level, the Big 12 Tournament runners-up can compete with anyone.
Unfortunately, for Arizona, its reward for grinding out a win over the Ducks is a date with the East Region's No. 1 seed, and March Madness odds favorite, Duke. The Wildcats are 9.5-point underdogs to the Blue Devils, which is the largest spread of the Sweet 16 slate.
Final Four odds: +700 ($10 to win $70)
🔵 5. Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is a different basketball team when fully healthy, as it showed in the Round of 32 win over Illinois. Lamont Butler returned to the lineup to chip in with 14 points as the Wildcats rolled over the Fighting Illini, 84-75. The program - now under Mark Pope - finds itself in the second weekend for the first time since 2019.
Kentucky will now take on Tennessee in the Sweet 16's only 2 vs. 3 matchup. Despite the Wildcats sweeping the season series with the Volunteers, Tennessee is a 4.5-point favorite. The looming threat of a game against Houston in the NCAA Tournament bracket is why Kentucky is a long shot to reach the Final Four.
Final Four odds: +700 ($10 to win $70)
🔴 6. Ole Miss Rebels
Many scoffed at the Southeastern Conference's early struggles in the NCAA Tournament, but teams like Ole Miss have represented the SEC well. Chris Beard's men posted back-to-back convincing wins over North Carolina and Iowa State to get to this stage. As we've learned, count them out at your own peril.
The Rebels drew the No. 2 seed in the South, Michigan State, in the Sweet 16. The Spartans have looked incredibly vulnerable, and by week's end, we'd imagine this is one of the more popular upset picks at our best sportsbooks. Michigan State is listed as a 3.5-point favorite over Ole Miss.
Final Four odds: +750 ($10 to win $75)
🐾 7. BYU Cougars
The third-place regular-season Big 12 finishers' success at this tournament was always dependent on whether their shots were falling. Suffice it to say BYU has found its stroke early on. Two impressive 80-plus-point performances have lifted the Cougars over VCU and Wisconsin.
BYU's offense will now be tested against KenPom's fourth-best offense in adjusted efficiency, Alabama. The Crimson Tide pride themselves on being the quickest team in the country (No. 1 in tempo), which has led to many high-scoring performances. Can the Cougars keep up? Alabama is an early 4.5-point favorite.
Final Four odds: +850 ($10 to win $85)
🐗 8. Arkansas Razorbacks
It's not farfetched to say this is the best coaching job of John Calipari's career. The legendary coach has taken an Arkansas team to the Sweet 16 in his first year, taking down Bill Self's Kansas and Rick Pitino's St. John's in the process. The Razorbacks' roster getting healthy makes them an under-the-radar threat.
The Hogs now turn their attention to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who - after the Red Storm were eliminated - must feel good about their odds to make a deep run. However, they'd be naive to discount the threat Calipali's squad poses. Our best sports betting apps list Texas Tech as a 5.5-point favorite over Arkansas.
Final Four odds: +900 ($10 to win $90)
🧠 Sweet 16 expert picks
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🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Alabama vs. BYU prediction
- Florida vs. Maryland prediction
- Duke vs. Arizona prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas prediction
- Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan prediction
- Houston vs. Purdue prediction
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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