Who Will Win the 2025 March Madness Midwest Region Bracket? Favorites, Sleepers & Final Four Picks
The Midwest Region might be the weakest region top to bottom in the March Madness bracket, which is why No. 1 seed Houston and No. 2 seed Tennessee have clear paths to the Elite Eight as the tournament begins today.
Our 2025 March Madness Midwest preview expects the defensive juggernauts to cruise to a matchup as part of our March Madness predictions. But don't sleep on Gonzaga and McNeese making some noise before then.
đ 2025 March Madness Midwest Region odds & betting favorites
Here are the odds for every team to win the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region.
đ Want to bet on the NCAA Tournament? Check out the latest March Madness odds and Final Four odds.
đ¤ See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
đŽ Midwest Region expert picks
- Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville prediction
- Gonzaga vs. Georgia prediction
- McNeese vs. Clemson prediction
- Purdue vs. High Point prediction
- Illinois vs. Xavier prediction
- Kentucky vs. Troy prediction
- UCLA vs. Utah State prediction
- Tennessee vs. Wofford prediction
đ March Madness Midwest Region betting preview
For the last two months, Houston looked poised to earn a No. 1 seed thanks to its defensive prowess and dominance in the Big 12. And somehow the Cougars may have ended up in a best-case scenario region with the No. 2 seed being Tennessee, a similar program stylistically that's not quite to the level of Kelvin Sampson's squad.
In fact, I think there's just one team in the Midwest that can knock off Houston, and it happens to be No. 8 seed Gonzaga, the most under-seeded team in the country for my money. Beyond those three, No. 12 seed McNeese is among the most lethal mid-major programs in the country and could make a Sweet 16 run. Outside of Houston and Tennesse, this region lacks consistency, which could end up giving the Midwest the most upsets in the NCAA Tournament.
đĒ Who is the favorite to reach the Final Four?
For much of the season, Houston has been top four by the March Madness odds thanks to its defense and depth. The Cougars run eight deep with a star shooter in LJ Cryer, a dominant man down low in J'Wan Roberts (who's expected to be healthy for March Madness), a pass-first point in Milos Uzan, and two stud defenders in Joseph Tugler and Terrance Arceneaux.
Although the Cougars don't have an All-American scorer to lean on, they're just one of three teams to rank top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Houston makes up for not having its own Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome by having a savvy veteran lineup that's built to make a Final Four run.
đ Best odds to win the Midwest Region: +130 via FanDuel ($10 to win $13)
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đ Which Cinderella sleeper can make a deep run?
Should Gonzaga be considered a Cinderella? Not really, but since the Bulldogs are a No. 8 seed and the only team I think that has a shot at taking down Houston, I'm picking them as my sleeper to win the Midwest.
While it's technically been a down year for Mark Few's Zags, the team is still ranked top 10 by KenPom and won the West Coast Conference tournament - I thought Gonzaga should have earned as high as a No. 5 seed. With one of the best point guards in the country in Canadian star Ryan Nembhard and a physical scoring prescence in Graham Ike, the Bulldogs are second in the country in PPG (86.6) and provide an interesting contrasting matchup for Houston.
đ Best odds to win the Midwest Region: +950 via DraftKings ($10 to win $95)
đ¨ What is the best first-round upset pick?
Led by former LSU head coach Will Wade, McNeese is going to be one of the most picked mid-majors to make a Sweet 16 run. The Cowboys have a suffocating defense and reliable offensive threats in Javohn Garcia, Sincere Parker, and DJ Richards.
Wade's guard-heavy lineup will give up size to Clemson, but the Tigers' lack of speed could be exposed as a result. The Cowboys played Alabama and Mississippi State tough early in the season, so taking on a high-major is nothing new, and McNeese has lost just one game since mid-December.
đ Best odds to win in first round: +275 via bet365 ($10 to win $27.50)
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đ Which first-round matchup is the most intriguing?
There's so much potential for barnburners in the first round of the Midwest with almost every team potentially on upset alert outside of Houston and Tennessee. Even Gonzaga could find itself in trouble against Georgia, which has a potential lottery pick in Asa Newell.
McNeese vs. Clemson is the one nobody will want to miss, and Illinois has a tough draw against either Texas or Xavier, which play in the First Four. But the most interesting game could be No. 10 seed Utah State against No. 7 seed UCLA, especially with rumors that Bruins head coach Mick Cronin could take the Villanova job. When it comes to pure basketball, the Aggies' splashy offense could spell trouble for UCLA's hard-nosed defense.
đ UCLA best odds to beat Utah State: -210 via FanDuel ($10 to win $4.76)
âšī¸ Who are the best players in the Midwest Region?
â Zakai Zeigler, G (Tennessee)
The two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Zeigler is the classic undersized college point guard who wins by having a high basketball IQ. He's a feisty defender that will hound ball handlers and his court vision makes him one of the better passers in the country, and teammate Chaz Lanier is probably the most talented scorer in the Midwest.
â Braden Smith, G (Purdue)
It's no longer the Zach Edey show in West Lafayette, and Smith has stepped up in a huge way as a result. The Big Ten Player of the Year is as good as it gets as a passer and true court general leading Matt Painter's offense. The Boilermakers will need him at his best as a shooter, too, if they hope to push to the Elite Eight.
â Ryan Nembhard, G (Gonzaga)
The Midwest is just full of undersized and tenacious point guards that win with their smarts and passing ability. Smith (8.7) and Zeigler (7.3) are both top five in the country in assists per game, but it's Nembhard who tops the charts (9.8). If he can put on a Chris Paul-like performance as a passer in March, the Zags could make a Final Four run.
đ Check out our complete guide to the best players in the NCAA Tournament.
đ Who will win the Midwest Region?
No, Houston doesn't have an elite scorer or even a true face of their program like the other No. 1 seeds, but what Sampson's team does have is a lineup capable of shutting down any opponent's offense. The Cougars are allowing the second-fewest PPG in the country (58.5) and the fourth-lowest field goal percentage (38.3%).
Tennessee and Gonzaga are really all that stand in Houston's way of a Final Four. The Volunteers are a lesser version of the Cougars, while the Bulldogs just don't have the depth to compete with a team that runs so deep - especially if Cryer and Roberts are at their best on the offensive end.
Those two will be the key to Houston trying to win Sampson his first NCAA Tournament title. If Cryer can get hot from behind the arc and Roberts can dominate the paint, the Cougars have a chance to even take down Duke in the Final Four.
đ Best odds to win the Midwest Region: +130 via FanDuel ($10 to win $13)
đ° March Madness Midwest Region best bets & Final Four expert prediction
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| Bet | Team | Odds | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| đ Pick to win | Houston | +130 | $13 |
| đ¯ Best sleeper | Gonzaga | +950 | $95 |
| đ¨ Best upset pick | McNeese over Clemson | +275 | $27.50 |
đŽ March Madness Midwest Region bracket predictions & expert picks for every game
Here's my pick for every game in the 2025 March Madness Midwest Region from the first round to the Final Four. You can also check out my comprehensive guide on how to fill out a March Madness bracket.
1ī¸âŖ First round
- No. 1 Houston over No. 16 SIU Edwardsville
- No. 8 Gonzaga over No. 9 Georgia
- No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Clemson
- No. 4 Purdue over No. 13 High Point
- No. 6 Illinois over No. 11 Texas/Xavier
- No. 3 Kentucky over No. 14 Troy
- No. 7 UCLA over No. 10 Utah State
- No. 2 Tennessee over No. 15 Wofford
2ī¸âŖ Second round
- No. 1 Houston over No. 8 Gonzaga
- No. 12 McNeese over No. 4 Purdue
- No. 6 Illinois over No. 3 Kentucky
- No. 2 Tennessee over No. 7 UCLA
đŦ Sweet 16
- No. 1 Houston over No. 12 McNeese
- No. 2 Tennessee over No. 6 Illinois
đą Elite Eight
- No. 1 Houston over No. 2 Tennessee
đ More March Madness regional previews: South | East | Midwest | West
đ March Madness first-round expert picks
- March Madness upset predictions
- Ranking No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed upsets
- How to predict March Madness upsets
- What are the most common March Madness upsets?
- What are the biggest March Madness upsets of all time?
- What are the best March Madness buzzer-beaters?
đŽ March Madness predictions for every game today
- Louisville vs. Creighton prediction
- Purdue vs. High Point prediction
- Wisconsin vs. Montana prediction
- Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville prediction
- Auburn vs. Alabama State prediction
- Clemson vs. McNeese prediction
- BYU vs. VCU prediction
- Gonzaga vs. Georgia prediction
- Tennessee vs. Wofford prediction
- Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction
- Texas A&M vs. Yale prediction
- Missouri vs. Drake prediction
- UCLA vs. Utah State prediction
- St. John's vs. Omaha prediction
- Michigan vs. UC San Diego prediction
- Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction
đ Best March Madness betting sites
Ready to place your March Madness bets? Check out the best March Madness betting promos from our best March Madness betting sites, as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review.
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