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March Madness Bracket Trends & Tips: Building the Perfect NCAA Tournament Bracket

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: March 20, 2025 10:00 AM EDT • 4 min 58 sec read.

March Madness Bracket Trends & Tips: How to Build the Perfect Bracket for NCAA Tournament
Pictured: Will Miller of Chicago, Ill., who is in town for the NCAA Final Four, poses with the giant March Madness bracket. Photo by David Wallace / The Arizona Republic via Imagn Images.

You have a 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 chance of filling out a perfect March Madness bracket - that's 9.2 quintillion, for those keeping track at home. Research done by the NCAA tells us those odds increase to 1 in 120.2 billion if you know something about the sport.

With the tournament getting underway today, let's help increase your chances of being perfect by 99.9987% with our March Madness bracket trends and tips.

Simply understanding analytics and trends (likely) won't lead to a flawless bracket. However, it can assist in winning your bracket challenge or pool, and that's good enough for us. Save your money, Warren Buffett - we prefer to take it from our family, friends, and colleagues, anyway.

📊 Best March Madness trends & tips to build a perfect bracket

1️⃣ First-round upsets

The governing body of college athletics classifies upsets as lower-ranked teams beating opponents who are seeded at least five places above them. For example, a 9 beating an 8 isn't an upset, but an 11 over a 6 is considered an upset.

Opening-round upsets have become more frequent in recent years, peaking at eight in 2016. There has been at least one first-round toppling every tournament under the current format, with an average of 4.7 per year in the Round of 64.

The trendiest upsets to include in your bracket are No. 12 seeds beating No. 5 seeds. A 12-seed has won at least one game in 33 of the 39 tournaments played under the current 68-team format. Thus, pick at least one 5-seed to be sent packing as a one-and-done.

Here are the frequency of upsets in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 1985:

  • No. 11 over No. 6: 61 (39.1%)
  • No. 12 over No. 5: 55 (35.26%)
  • No. 13 over No. 4: 33 (21.15%)
  • No. 14 over No. 3: 23 (14.74%)
  • No. 15 over No. 2: 11 (7.05%)
  • No. 16 over No. 1: 2 (1.28%)

It's worth noting both 16-seed over 1-seed upsets occurred within a five-year span (UMBC over Virginia in 2018, Fairleigh-Dickinson over Purdue in 2023). Four of the 11 upsets of a No. 15 over a No. 2 happened in the last decade, as well, reinforcing the earlier note about upsets becoming more frequent as of late.

While early upsets do occur, you shouldn't necessarily pick an upset-heavy Round of 64. Hover around the average and keep an eye on the matchup seeding when making your predictions to give yourself the best shot at a perfect bracket.

Our Andrew Reid helps you predict March Madness upsets.

👨‍🏫 Don't fill out your bracket with chalk

When in doubt, people often turn to the favorite and/or higher seed in toss-up games, which can lead to a bunch of chalky brackets. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially later in the tournament, as 25 of the past 39 national champions were a top seed.

However, having too much chalk can come back to bite you.

The No. 1 seeds from each regional have reached the Final Four together just once (2008). Similarly, there are only five instances in which three No. 1 seeds made it to the final weekend of March Madness.

Historical trends tell us that it is safer than not to pick a 1-seed to win the tournament, especially with 13 of the last 17 champions reigning from that position in the bracket. We'd recommend erring on the side of caution and only picking two No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, though, as you're more likely to find success with that strategy.

A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!
A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!

🏆 KenPom has the keys

On the topic of tournament winners, 21 of the last 23 national champions have shared common statistics. As such, it's crucial that you cross-reference your championship pick with Ken Pomeroy's ever-popular rankings.

KenPom - as it is often referred to - has helped fans fill out their brackets for years. These rankings pull important underlying statistics, such as adjusted efficiency margin (NetRtg), and rank teams based on their numbers. A whopping 91.30% of winners over the last 23 years sit inside the top 21 in offensive efficiency (ORtg) and top 37 in defensive efficiency (DRtg).

While it's fun to poke and prod around the statistician's website, these two metrics matter more than any other. You must ensure your title winner checks those boxes before filling out your bracket in ink. Similar to the other tips we've provided above, you have a much better chance at a perfect bracket when keeping these standards in mind.

🔢 Check the odds

Let me preface this tip with the reality that this strategy only works for those who fill out their bracket round-by-round. For normal people - yes, I am implying that round-by-round bracket challenges are weird - this is a point to consider solely in the Round of 64 for the most part.

However you fill out your bracket, checking the betting odds can benefit the picker.

Double-digit favorites have won outright at a 92% clip in NCAA history. Further, moneyline favorites win roughly 75% of their game straight up in the opening rounds. The hope is that our other tips can help you successfully identify the 25% of betting favorites who are in trouble of being bounced early.

Our Esten McLaren details the March Madness odds following the bracket reveal on Selection Sunday.

👑 Fade the 'blue bloods'

Familiarity feels safe. This is why, when in doubt, people are quick to pick the "blue bloods" - the term for historically relevant teams like Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, and Kentucky - when unsure about a certain matchup.

This strategy has proven profitable in years past. After all, 60% of titles over the last 10 tournaments have been won by undisputed blue bloods. However, if there was ever a year to fade these traditional programs, it's this year.

Connecticut, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, and UCLA have all struggled this season. They've been unreliable at best and outright disappointing at worst, and each has at least nine losses on the year. While the Huskies and Wildcats are capable of runs, they've failed to show the consistency required to back with confidence.

The lone exceptions among the blue bloods are Duke and Michigan State. They land as some of the tournament's top seeds, and they're opponents that teams won't be happy to have in their respective regions. The Blue Devils and Spartans are the only two traditional blue bloods that should be given the benefit of the doubt based on reputation alone.

Want more March Madness bracket help? Our Rob Paul's expert bracket tips help perfect your picks.

🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

March Madness OddsWooden Award OddsACC OddsBig 12 OddsBig Ten Odds
Final Four OddsMarch Madness MVP OddsBig East OddsPac-12 OddsSEC Odds

👑 Best March Madness betting sites

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.