Best March Madness Survivor Pool Picks for First Round: Target These Day 1 & Day 2 Teams
Getting your March Madness survivor pool picks right for the first round might be the most important in the entire NCAA Tournament. So it pays to be prepared entering Thursday's first-round games starting at 12:15 p.m. ET.
If this is your first time doing a survivor pool, we broke down the March Madness survivor pool basics earlier this week, and we offered deeper strategies in our March Madness survivor guide. As we look ahead to the first round, here are the teams that I think are the best picks and a few teams to avoid.
👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.
🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks for first round
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maryland (4) | vs. Grand Canyon (13) |
| 2 | Wisconsin (3) | vs. Montana (14) |
| 3 | Texas Tech (3) | vs. UNC Wilmington (14) |
| 4 | Iowa State (3) | vs. Lipscomb (14) |
| 5 | Purdue (4) | vs. High Point (13) |
| 6 | Kentucky (3) | vs. Troy (14) |
| 7 | Gonzaga (8) | vs. Georgia (9) |
| 8 | St. John's (2) | vs. Omaha (15) |
| 9 | Michigan State (2) | vs. Bryant (15) |
| 10 | Arizona (4) | vs. Akron (13) |
🐢 Best pick: Maryland
Between the fact that Maryland is just a No. 4 seed and hasn't made it past the first weekend in the NCAA Tournament in about a decade, I don't think many participants in a survivor pool will be flocking to the Terps. But don't let that scare you off - Kevin Willard's team has a loaded roster that just played Michigan State tough, beat up Illinois in the Big Ten tournament, and nearly took down Michigan in the semifinal.
This team has one of the top March Madness NBA draft prospects in Derik Queen, who should be a complete mismatch for Grand Canyon - the Antelopes are ranked 92nd in KenPom while Maryland is 11th. Queen is a lottery pick talent and can be a major mismatch with his power and size at 6-foot-10, 246 pounds.
He's not alone, either, with fellow physical frontcourt player Julian Reese and sharpshooting guards Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice. The Terps have a Sweet 16 type of roster, and you don't have to feel bad burning them on the first weekend because they'll likely run into Florida next week - arguably the hottest team in the country.
📊 Maryland's odds to beat Grand Canyon in the first round: -556 via Caesars | Implied probability: 84.76%
🦡 Safest pick: Wisconsin
Only one team in the entire NCAA Tournament earned higher than a No. 16 seed while being ranked outside of the top 160 by KenPom. That was Montana, which also happens to have the highest luck rating in the nation. The Grizzlies' luck is going to come to an end against Wisconsin.
The Badgers finally have a lethal offense thanks to John Tonje, who's putting up 19.2 PPG and has Wisconsin ranked 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Montana has one of the worst defenses in the country (251st in adjusted efficiency).
The only reason the Badgers aren't No. 1 in my survivor rankings is because they'll likely have more participants in a pool backing them than Maryland. I think Wisconsin is the most obvious non-No. 1/2 seed to back in the first round by a mile.
📊 Wisconsin's odds to beat Montana in the first round: -1167 via Caesars | Implied probability: 92.11%
🐶 Riskiest pick: Gonzaga
Using a No. 8 seed in the first round of a survivor pool can be a massive game-changer if it pulls off a win. But in theory, the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup is supposed to be the most even of the first round, which is why nobody in a pool is likely to back a team like Gonzaga ... and why this is a risky opening pick.
Despite where Mark Few's team is seeded, the Bulldogs are an analytics darling this season. They sit No. 9 in the country in KenPom's ratings and No. 7 in EvanMiya's, plus they won the WCC tournament behind the nasty duo of Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike.
While Georgia has a freshman star in Asa Newell, the Bulldogs' offense just isn't nearly as strong as Gonzaga's and is going to struggle to keep this close. Our Gabe Henderson even has Gonzaga reaching the Final Four in his March Madness bracket upset picks.
📊 Gonzaga's odds to beat Georgia in the first round: -280 via bet365 | Implied probability: 73.68%
🚫 March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan (5) | vs. UC San Diego (12) |
| 2 | Missouri (6) | vs. Drake (11) |
| 3 | BYU (6) | vs. VCU (11) |
| 4 | Clemson (5) | vs. McNeese (12) |
| 5 | Texas A&M (4) | vs. Yale (13) |
- I'm not listing any No. 1 seeds as teams to avoid here because I believe all four will win, but using any of them in the first round is a slippery slope that could come back to bite you later
- The teams I'm avoiding are middling seeds from power conferences that have brand names that could entice survivor players, even though all five have less-than-ideal matchups
- Given that Michigan won the Big Ten tournament and is a major program, the Wolverines could be a popular pick despite playing one of our March Madness giant killers in UC San Diego
- Drake beating Missouri is my favorite upset pick of the first round of the tournament thanks to Ben McCollum and Bennett Stirtz - our Missouri vs. Drake prediction is backing the Bulldogs, too
- One of the most popular Cinderella picks of the tournament is No. 11 seed VCU, and our March Madness first-round upsets are backing the Rams
- There's a strong history of No. 12 seeds beating No. 5 seeds - we highlighted it in our March Madness upsets - and Will Wade has McNeese looking poised to be among them
- Yale is among the highest-rated one-bid league teams in the NCAA Tournament by KenPom, and Texas A&M just played a gauntlet of an SEC schedule
✨ Other ways to get involved with March Madness
- March Madness bracket: How to fill out March Madness bracket | Best free March Madness bracket challenges
- Calcutta auction: What is a March Madness Calcutta auction? | Best March Madness Calcutta auction targets
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
| March Madness odds | March Madness MVP odds |
| Women's March Madness odds | March Madness MVP predictions |
| Final Four odds | March Madness prop bets |
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