Best March Madness Final Four Survivor Pool Picks: Ranking Every NCAA Tournament Team on Day 9
If you've made it this far in your survivor pool and still have No. 1 seeds available to use, you deserve a round of applause because this is just the second time in NCAA history the top four teams in March Madness have made it to the Final Four.
The chalkiness of this NCAA Tournament makes finding the best March Madness Final Four survivor pool picks for today's games even harder. This is the best Final Four ever, with any one of these teams capable of taking home the title, so which of these March Madness odds contenders should you back ahead of tonight's Final Four games at the Alamodome in San Antonio?
👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.
🎯 Best March Madness Final Four survivor pool picks today: NCAA Tournament Day 9
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke (1) | vs. Houston (1) |
| 2 | Auburn (1) | vs. Florida (1) |
| 3 | Florida (1) | vs. Auburn (1) |
| 4 | Houston (1) | vs. Duke (1) |
✅ Best survivor pool pick today: Auburn
The best survivor pool pick today is whoever you believe will win the SEC showdown in the Final Four. If you've yet to pick Duke (or Houston), the best case scenario for a survivor pool is to save the winner of that Final Four matchup for the championship game and to nail this pick. The Blue Devils and Cougars have been the best two teams in the country for about two months now, and I think the winner of that game is taking home the NCAA Tournament title.
While Florida won this matchup with Auburn the first time around in the regular season, I have the Tigers taking it tonight. By all accounts, Johni Broome is ready to rock after hyperextending his elbow against Michigan State, and he'll be the key to Auburn both keeping up with Florida and slowing the Gators down.
Broome's presence in the paint should be the difference, especially with Alex Condon being slowed by an ankle injury. The Tigers have the better defense - No. 8 in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom - and we've already seen Florida struggle with higher-end offenses like Texas Tech and UConn.
However, this game is such a toss-up that if you think Florida is the better play, take the Gators. But if you just want to be alive for Monday's championship game, avoid this SEC game all together.
📊 Auburn's odds to beat Florida: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%
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🛡️ Safest survivor pool pick today: Duke
If Duke beats Houston tonight and wins the championship on Monday, this will go down as one of the greatest teams in college basketball history. That might seem like hyperbole, but the Blue Devils currently sit No. 2 all-time in KenPom ratings (since 1997) and the No. 1 team on that like is 1998-99 Duke, which fell short in the championship game against UConn.
So if Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg can keep it up, the Blue Devils will have their names etched in history. That is why Duke is the safest survivor pool pick today, even against a Houston team that has been the country's second-best lately. The problem for the Cougars, though, is that they cannot match Duke's length and athleticism.
Not only is the 6-foot-9 Flagg projected to be the No. 1 pick by the NBA draft odds, but he's surrounded by versatile scorers and defenders with NBA futures like Kon Knueppel (6-foot-7), Tyrese Proctor (6-foot-5), Sion James (6-foot-5), and Khaman Maluach (7-foot-2).
Duke doesn't even play anyone shorter than 6-foot-5. Meanwhile, Houston's starting lineup's average height is 6-foot-4. That's going to be a huge difference, literally, and the biggest reason why the Blue Devils are the safest pick today.
📊 Duke's odds to beat Houston: -265 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 72.60%
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⚠️ Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Florida
The SEC matchup in general is a risky game to pick, but it's also the best way to come out victorious in your survivor pool. Having Duke in your back pocket for Monday is the way to win your pool, and unless there's a worthwhile payout for just reaching the championship game, you'll likely need to pick between Auburn and Florida today.
If all things are equal between the two No. 1 seeds from the historically strong SEC, and this is truly a toss-up, then why is Florida a riskier pick than Auburn? Well, the public has been all over the Gators since they went on their SEC tournament run, and they have the second-highest ticket percentage (9.1%) and second-highest handle percentage (40.5%) behind Duke, according to BetMGM.
That means Florida will likely be the most popular pick today among remaining survivor pool participants, with most hoping to save Duke for Monday's game. So by taking Florida, you're not only picking the riskier game of the day, but you're throwing the contrarian approach out the window.
Sure, you might be right, but then you're likely splitting a large share of the pot on Monday when you take Duke. The risk of Auburn actually makes them the less risky play. Or maybe the chaos of March is just getting to me and I'm no longer thinking straight. But I'm riding with the Tigers today.
📊 Florida's odds to beat Auburn: -146 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 59.35%
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🚫 March Madness survivor pool pick to avoid today
❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Houston
It was such a poor draw for Houston to end up in the Midwest region, putting them on a collision course with Duke since the beginning of the tournament. If the Cougars were playing Auburn or Florida, I'd be backing Kelvin Sampson's team today, but instead, the second-best team in college basketball has to play arguably the best team of the last 25 years.
Taking metrics completely out of it and relying simply on the eye test, Houston still doesn't stack up with Duke. The Blue Devils starting lineup has an average height of over 6-foot-7, and Jon Scheyer's team doesn't play anyone under 6-foot-5; the Cougars are going to look out of place in comparison with an average starting lineup that's three inches shorter.
Duke also happens to be the only team in the country that probably has even more depth than Houston, which should allow the Blue Devils to stay fresh against a suffocating defense. Even if Flagg is quieted, Scheyer has two more lottery talents in Knueppel and Maluach, along with All-ACC caliber players in Proctor and James, and a bench full of players that would be starting at most other programs.
This matchup just favors Duke far too clearly for me to believe in a Houston team that I think would win the championship in most NCAA Tournaments.
📊 Houston's odds to beat Duke: +225 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 30.77%
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