Best March Madness Survivor Pool Picks Today: Ranking Every NCAA Tournament Team on Day 3

The first round of March Madness this year was about as chalky as any in recent memory. As a result, the second round is loaded with appetizing matchups that should hand us an extremely competitive few days.

While that's good for the quality of the NCAA Tournament, it makes it that much harder to make our March Madness Survivor Pool picks today with far fewer obvious choices after nailing the first two days.

👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.

🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks today: NCAA Tournament Day 3

👉 Looking for more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness second-round expert picks as part of our March Madness predictions.

✅ Best survivor pool pick today: St. John's

John Calipari vs. Rick Pitino is a college basketball lover's dream. It's like the underboss taking on the Godfather. Two Hall of Fame coaches known for doing it their way all while being embroiled in controversy throughout their careers. Can you tell I'm excited to watch St. John's play Arkansas today?

While the coaching matchup is a huge storyline with plenty of juice, the game itself may not be overly impressive. St. John's is No. 1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. There's also an All-American to carry its offense in RJ Luis Jr. Meanwhile, this Razorback team is just 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and still expected to be down Adou Thiero, its best player.

Clearly, I'm bullish on St. John's, and I'm hoping we'll get the answer to whether Rick Pitino and Richard Pitino meet in March Madness. So why use a No. 2 seed as a survivor pool pick on the first weekend of March Madness? Well, look at the board. There were so few upsets (and I don't believe in Purdue) it's become hard to find a strong pick that isn't a No. 2 seed due to all the parity in today's matchups. 

📊 St. John's odds to beat Arkansas: -320 via bet365 | Implied probability: 76.19%

🛡️ Safest survivor pool pick today: Tennessee

Obviously using a No. 1 seed this early is a bad process, and I don't love going with a No. 2 seed either. But the matchups on Day 3 of the tournament are littered with potential "upsets." Just look at the spreads from our March Madness betting sites. Of the eight games, only two feature a favorite that's of more than 6.5 points (Auburn and St. John's).

Even this Tennessee team that's a March Madness odds contender is just a 5-point favorite against No. 7 seed UCLA. But the reason I think the Volunteers are the safest survivor pool pick today is because the Bruins play a similar brand of basketball, just not at as high of a level. Both teams are outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo and inside the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

Mick Cronin's UCLA team isn't going to beat Rick Barnes' Tennessee squad at its own game. The Vols are more susceptible to explosive offenses because then so much falls on Chaz Lanier's shoulders.

Tennesse is also a safer pick than St. John's because you'll be less likely to need the Vols during the second weekend of the tournament.

📊 Tennessee's odds to beat UCLA: -205 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 67.21%

⚠️ Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Texas A&M

My top survivor pool picks on the first two days of March Madness were Wisconsin (Day 1) and Maryland (Day 2). Both programs are ranked in the top 20 by KenPom, but each school is outside the top 10 favorites by the Final Four odds. That made those teams perfect survivor picks as safe, but not teams you needed to feel too bad about burning.

My two risky picks on the first two days were the top two West Coast Conference teams: No. 8 seed Gonzaga (Day 1) and No. 7 seed St. Mary's (Day 2). Both managed to win. However, now the risky teams available fit the bill of Wisconsin and Maryland as No. 3 or 4 seeds that are ranked top 20 by KenPom because the tournament has been so chalky.

I'd love to take No. 4 seed Texas A&M today and then still have a full arsenal of No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, but Michigan is so hard to predict. The Wolverines won the Big Ten tournament then almost beat themselves against a vastly undersized UC San Diego team that was taking the Dion Waiters approach to shooting.

While I think Wade Taylor and Co. can handle Michigan's size, I'm not confident enough to slot the Aggies higher.

📊 Texas A&M's odds to beat Michigan: -150 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 60%

🚫 Popular March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid today

❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Auburn

Beyond the reality that using a No. 1 seed as a survivor pool pick on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament isn't ideal in the long run, I'm also not as confident as I should be in Auburn. The No. 1 overall seed in March Madness beat Alabama State by 20, but the Tigers were the only No. 1 seed that didn't absolutely pulverize its first-round opponent.

Even with Wooden Award odds contender Johni Broome in the paint, the Tigers could struggle to some degree with Creighton. The Bluejays boast one of the best big men in the country in Ryan Kalkbrenner and a sharpshooting lead guard in Steven Ashworth. And we just haven't seen Auburn look like itself in weeks.

Do you really want to be sweating out a No. 1 seed in a survivor pool on the first weekend of the tournament? If you find yourself in that scenario, you're probably not going to win the pool anyway.

📊 Auburn's odds to beat Creighton: -425 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 80.95%

⛔ Other survivor pool picks to avoid today

• Houston has been on an absolute tear for months and annihilated SIU Edwardsville in the first round, so you're going to want to save the No. 1 seeded Cougars, plus Gonzaga is among the most under seeded teams in the country and could be a tough test
• We've seen Purdue get upset before in the NCAA Tournament under Matt Painter and the Boilermakers let High Point make their first-round game competitive, so I think Will Wade holds a shot at bringing McNeese its second-ever March Madness win
• Before Drake's upset win over Missouri, I highlighted star guard Bennett Stirtz in my March Madness players to watch. He didn't disappoint, so I'm weary of backing Texas Tech, especially after how it looked against UNC Wilmington
• Wisconsin vs. BYU could be the best game of the day with the Badgers favored by just one in a game that's a complete tossup

🏀 Best March Madness odds, predictions & expert picks today

Here are our best March Madness picks for Saturday's second-round action:

• March Madness odds & schedule today
• March Madness survivor pool picks today
• March Madness predictions today
• Best March Madness player props today
• March Madness upset picks today

🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today

• Purdue vs. McNeese prediction
• St. John's vs. Arkansas prediction
• Texas A&M vs. Michigan prediction
• Texas Tech vs. Drake prediction
• Auburn vs. Creighton prediction
• Wisconsin vs. BYU prediction
• Houston vs. Gonzaga prediction
• Tennessee vs. UCLA prediction

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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