March Madness Sweet 16 Survivor Picks for Every NCAA Tournament Game Today
Making it to the Sweet 16 of a survivor pool is no small task with how chaotic March Madness is, especially considering there are no perfect brackets left.
Continuing the second weekend of the tournament with just 11 total games to go means you have to be as strategic as ever with making your survivor pool picks. Our March Madness Sweet 16 survivor picks have you covered ahead of the games today.
👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.
🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks for Sweet 16
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech (3) | Arkansas (10) |
| 2 | Houston (1) | Purdue (4) |
| 3 | Duke (1) | Arizona (4) |
| 4 | Florida (1) | Maryland (4) |
| 5 | Tennessee (2) | Kentucky (3) |
| 6 | Auburn (1) | Michigan (5) |
| 7 | Alabama (2) | BYU (6) |
| 8 | Michigan State (2) | Ole Miss (6) |
| 9 | BYU (6) | Alabama (2) |
| 10 | Ole Miss 6) | Michigan State (2) |
| 11 | Maryland (4) | Florida (1) |
| 12 | Michigan (5) | Auburn (1) |
| 13 | Kentucky (3) | Tennessee (2) |
| 14 | Arkansas (10) | Texas Tech (3) |
| 15 | Purdue (4) | Houston (1) |
| 16 | Arizona (4) | Duke (1) |
🏴☠️ Best pick: Texas Tech
In a tournament that's been so light on upsets, Texas Tech has been dealt a pretty lucky hand. As a No. 3 seed, the Red Raiders started the NCAA Tournament with a win over No. 14 seed UNC Wilmington before taking down a No. 11 seed Drake team that upset Missouri.
That means Texas Tech is playing its third straight double-digit seed thanks to No. 10 Arkansas beating No. 2 St. John's to advance to the Sweet 16. No other team in March Madness will have played three straight double-digit seeds, which is why I think Texas Tech will be far more well-rested than a Razorbacks team that had to upset back-to-back opponents to get this far.
The Red Raiders are No. 8 by KenPom's rankings - the Razorbacks are the only team in the Sweet 16 outside of the top 24 (36th) - and have an All-American in forward JT Toppin, who should be a massive issue for Arkansas. While John Calipari's defense is scrappy, the offense has left a lot to be desired this season. Even if Adou Thiero is back from injury, expecting him to lead an upset is a big ask.
The bonus of taking Texas Tech is that if you're still alive and taking a No. 3 seed in the Sweet 16, you likely still have most of, if not all, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds left in your holster as we move to the Elite Eight (especially if you're in a round-by-round survivor pool instead of a daily).
📊 Texas Tech's odds to beat Arkansas in the Sweet 16: -235 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 70.15%
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🛑 Safest pick: Houston
This isn't a bad time to start dipping into those No. 1 seeds in a survivor pool if you're being strategic about it. To me, Houston is the second-best team in the country right now after Duke, however, it has the longest March Madness odds of the four No. 1 seeds.
That's not because our March Madness betting sites are expecting the Cougars to get upset by No. 4 seed Purdue, but because they also have the toughest No. 2 seed left in the Midwest region with them. If Houston wins, it has to play Tennessee in the Elite Eight to get a shot at likely playing Duke in the Final Four.
So, using Houston now is both safe and strategic because there will likely be a more advantageous survivor pool pick to make in the Elite Eight than taking the Cougs over the Volunteers. And there's no way you'll be using them against Duke and Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg.
Houston is also playing a Purdue team that's among the worst five programs left in the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers' lack of defense can be exploited by LJ Cryer and J'Wan Roberts, and Kelvin Sampson's defense is No. 1 in adjusted efficiency and should slow Braden Smith down.
📊 Houston's odds to beat Purdue in the Sweet 16: -345 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 77.53%
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🍊 Riskiest pick: Tennessee
Though Tennessee has the shortest Final Four odds of the non-No. 1 seeds, Rick Barnes' team is walking into one of the toughest games of the Sweet 16. How tough is this matchup with Kentucky for the Volunteers? Well, the Wildcats have already beaten them this season ... twice.
This is the third time these SEC foes have played this year with Kentucky winning on Jan. 28, 78-73, and on Feb. 11, 75-64. Playing a top 10 team three times in a season and beating them all three times seems like an impossible task.
While I do have Tennessee winning this time, I just don't think this is worth the risk after seeing Kentucky play so well against No. 6 seed Illinois. Starting guard Lamont Butler finally looked healthy in the win for the Wildcats too, and if Chaz Lanier struggles the way he did in the two previous games against Kentucky, Tennessee might not have enough offense to win.
📊 Tennessee's odds to beat Kentucky in the Sweet 16: -178 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 64.03%
👉 Want more Sweet 16 action? Check out our March Madness second-chance brackets and our latest March Madness odds.
🚫 March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona (4) | vs. Duke (1) |
| 2 | Purdue (4) | vs. Houston (1) |
| 3 | Arkansas (10) | vs. Texas Tech (3) |
| 4 | Kentucky (3) | vs. Tennessee (2) |
| 5 | Michigan (5) | vs. Auburn (1) |
⛔ Survivor pool picks to avoid for the Sweet 16
- Duke is the most talented team in the country and if Tyrese Proctor keeps playing as well as he has in March Madness, Tommy Lloyd's Arizona program stands no chance of advancing to its first Elite Eight under him
- For as good as Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are for the Boilermakers' offense, Purdue hasn't seen a defense like Houston's, and Matt Painter's squad doesn't have the defenders to slow the Cougs down either
- It's impressive that Calipari's Razorbacks are alive after it looked like they'd miss the tournament two months ago, but the magic ends here with Arkansas being noticeably the worst team left
- It's not that I don't think Kentucky can win, especially since it already beat Tennessee twice, but I just wouldn't touch this matchup between the Wildcats and Volunteers
- While Michigan poses an interesting threat to this uncharacteristically shaky Auburn team with its two dominant big men, I don't think the Wolverines have the guard play to pull off the upset
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions and stay up to date with the March Madness Sweet 16 odds and schedule.
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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