Would 2024 UConn Win March Madness in 2025? We Ran 1,000 Simulations Against Every Final Four Team

We're just hours away from the best Final Four ever featuring all four No. 1 seeds in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. But would any of them beat last year's national champions?

Let's not forget that the 2024 UConn Huskies put together one of the most dominant March Madness runs in NCAA Tournament history, beating all six opponents by 14 points en route to a second straight title. Their scoring differential (140 points) was the highest in a single tournament, and all five starters will likely be in the NBA by next season.

How would the Huskies fare against the most loaded Final Four field we've ever seen? We used NCAA Game Sim to find out - simulating 1,000 games between 2024 UConn and each of the remaining teams in the 2025 Final Four: Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn.

🤖 Want more simulations? Check out our March Madness Final Four AI predictions.

🏀 2024 UConn vs. 2025 Duke simulation

✅ Win percentage: Duke 62.8% | UConn 37.2%
📊 Average score: Duke 80.3, UConn 76
🎯 Most common margin: Duke by 7 (43 times)

Even the first back-to-back champions in nearly two decades are no match for the favorites by this year's March Madness odds, according to the simulations.

The Blue Devils won 628 of these 1,000 simulated games and often in convincing fashion, winning by more than 20 points in 122 games compared to just 34 such victories for the Huskies. Duke outscored last year's champions by 4.3 points on average, and the single-most common outcome was a 7-point win for Jon Scheyer's team.

It's hard to argue with those results. While UConn featured five potential NBA players in its starting lineup, Duke boasts four potential first-round picks this year - none better than Cooper Flagg, a virtual lock to go No. 1 overall by the latest NBA draft odds - and features the second-highest net efficiency rating in the KenPom era (since 1997).

😈 Want to bet on the Blue Devils? Check out our Duke vs. Houston prediction and best Duke vs. Houston player props.

🏀 2024 UConn vs. 2025 Florida simulation

✅ Win percentage: UConn 51.2% | Florida 48.8%
📊 Average score: UConn 78.9, Florida 78.6
🎯 Most common margin: UConn by 4 (42 times)

Now this is a matchup worth watching (or simulating?). The last two schools to win consecutive NCAA Tournament titles battle to a virtual draw in this hypothetical clash - and UConn escapes by the razor's edge with 12 more wins out of 1,000 simulations.

Nearly a third of those matchups were decided by four or fewer points, and these teams are separated by just 0.3 points on average across a thousand simulations. Their average halftime scores are identical (39.8) with the Huskies proving their worth in the second half more often than not.

Still, that slim margin of error could easily be cleared by Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. going supernova from deep - or UConn's Donovan Clingan channeling his inner Bill Walton for a half (or longer) on both sides of the court. This one would be well worth the price of admission.

🐊 Want to bet on the Gators? Check out our Auburn vs. Florida prediction and best Auburn vs. Florida player props.

🏀 2024 UConn vs. 2025 Houston simulation

✅ Win percentage: UConn 55.1% | Houston 44.9%
📊 Average score: UConn 76, Houston 74.2
🎯 Most common margin: UConn by 5 (38 times)

We were robbed of this potential matchup last year when the top-seeded Cougars were stunned by Duke in the Sweet 16 - only for the Blue Devils to fall to NC State in the Elite Eight. The Wolfpack then lost to Purdue, which fell to UConn in the title game.

This year's Houston team profiles as a better unit across the board, ranking 10th in offensive rating and first in defensive rating while coming within a whisker of UConn's elite net efficiency metrics. Yet its undersized frontcourt is a poor matchup against the Huskies, who take 55.1% of their head-to-head matchups against the Cougars according to the simulation model.

That feels like a pretty logical result: Houston's defense is legit, but it's difficult to envision Kelvin Sampson's offense finding much room against Clingan and UConn's otherworldly interior defense - and it's tough to rely on consistent 3-point shooting across 1,000 simulations. The final scores are close in the end, but the Huskies are the better side here.

🛑 Think Houston can surprise tonight? Our March Madness Final Four survivor pool picks caution against the Cougars in a do-or-die spot.

🏀 2024 UConn vs. 2025 Auburn simulation

✅ Win percentage: UConn 51.3% | Auburn 48.7%
📊 Average score: UConn 77.4, Auburn 76.6
🎯 Most common margin: UConn by 5 (33 times)

One of the biggest questions heading into the Final Four is whether Auburn star Johni Broome will be at full strength after leaving the Elite Eight with an elbow injury. These simulations suppose a fully healthy Broome - but it's still not quite enough against last year's national champions.

While closer than its matchup with Houston, UConn finds enough tournament magic to outlast this year's biggest long shot by the Final Four odds and predictions, winning 513 of 1,000 matchups by an average of 0.8 points. This one has some odd blowout potential - only 28.3% of games are decided by four points or fewer, the lowest mark of any matchup, and 16.3% of wins came by more than 20 points.

Given that the Tigers have looked like the best team in the country at times and the worst No. 1 seed at others, that shouldn't come as a major surprise. Still, it takes a little more consistency to beat the defending champs across 1,000 tries - even for the No. 1 overall seed in the 2025 field.

🐯 Want to bet on Broome in real life? We highlight his long-shot value in our March Madness MVP predictions ahead of the Final Four tonight.

🏆 Would 2024 UConn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

It's tempting to say that last year's national champions would have won in any season given their historically dominant run through the tournament. It's also trendy to say the reigning winners wouldn't stand a chance against any of the four teams in this year's field.

The real answer is ... somewhere in between. This year's Duke team stands in a class of its own, boasting the best advanced metrics we've seen by any team in over 25 years, and the talent wins out across 1,000 simulations. But UConn was a force to be reckoned with last season, and it would be a tough test for any of the other three Final Four teams.

🤔 Who will win this year? Our March Madness Final Four expert picks feature our best predictions tonight for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

📊 2024 UConn vs. 2025 Final Four hypothetical betting odds

Here are some hypothetical betting lines for those matchups between 2024 UConn and the 2025 Final Four contenders based on the above simulations.

💰 Want real March Madness odds? Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Final Four.

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