Best March Madness Upset Predictions Today: Which Underdogs Should You Bet Day 1?
The first round of March Madness is always the best time for upsets, but today is especially loaded with potential Cinderellas from UC San Diego to Drake.
Our best March Madness upset picks today target three programs that are all capable of making a Sweet 16 push. And Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament features so many upset possibilities that our fourth-favorite upset today would be our top pick if it were on Day 2.
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness first-round expert picks as part of our March Madness predictions.
💰 Ranking today's March Madness underdogs by best moneyline odds
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| Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) | Best ML odds |
|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego (12) | vs. Michigan (5) | +123 via BetRivers |
| VCU (11) | vs. BYU (6) | +116 via BetRivers |
| Drake (11) | vs. Missouri (6) | +220 via bet365 |
| McNeese (12) | vs. Clemson (5) | +285 via BetRivers |
| Utah State (10) | vs. UCLA (7) | +195 via bet365 |
| Creighton (9) | vs. Louisville (8) | +130 via DraftKings |
| Yale (13) | vs. Texas A&M (4) | +275 via bet365 |
| Arkansas (10) | vs. Kansas (7) | +185 via bet365 |
| Georgia (9) | vs. Gonzaga (8) | +245 via DraftKings |
| High Point (13) | vs. Purdue (4) | +280 via bet365 |
| UNC Wilmington (14) | vs. Texas Tech (3) | +950 via bet365 |
| Omaha (15) | vs. St. John's (2) | +1500 via bet365 |
| Wofford (15) | vs. Tennessee (2) | +1550 via bet365 |
| Montana (14) | vs. Wisconsin (3) | +1200 via bet365 |
| SIU Edwardsville (16) | vs. Houston (1) | +5500 via FanDuel |
| Alabama State (16) | vs. Auburn (1) | +7000 via FanDuel |
👉 Want to cash your upset picks? Check out the most common March Madness upsets by seed and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🎯 Our best March Madness upset picks & predictions today
If you're going to bet on underdogs during March Madness, the first round is the best time to do it, and the NCAA Tournament selection committee has set us up with a perfect Day 1 for upsets. On paper, this looks like it could be an all-time Cinderella day, with four teams seeded between No. 11 and No. 12 getting a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset.
🚨 No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
📅 Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +123 via BetRivers
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Despite Michigan taking home the Big Ten tournament title, the Wolverines were slotted into a pretty tough spot to open March Madness. UC San Diego looks like one of the best March Madness giant killers on paper.
It's the first season the Tritons are eligible for the NCAA Tournament after transitioning up from Division II in 2020, and Eric Olen's team looks set to make some noise. With a defense that forces tons of turnovers while ranking fourth in the nation in steals per game (9.9) and an offense that turns the ball over at the second-lowest rate in the country (8.7), UC San Diego should give Michigan all it can handle.
Keep an eye out for New Zealander Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. He's the Big West Player of the Year and among our March Madness players to watch today.
🚨 No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU
📅 Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +116 via BetRivers
Talk about a bad draw for BYU, as VCU is the best team in the country from a one-bid league after the Rams dominated the A-10 during Ryan Odom's second season in charge. VCU is also the highest-rated team from a one-bid league in KenPom's rankings, and it holds a game-changer in guard Max Shulga.
There's a reason the moneyline odds for VCU to win are nearly even money. BYU is sitting just five spots ahead of the Rams in EvanMiya's relative rating rankings. And oh yeah, Odom knows a thing or two about pulling off first-round upsets in March. He was the head coach of the UMBC team that was the first-ever No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed when the Retrievers took down Virginia in 2018.
🚨 No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri
📅 Tipoff: 7:35 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +220 via bet365
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Among the best stories in this year's NCAA Tournament, Drake lost head coach Darian Devries and the team's best player, his son Tucker, to West Virginia this past offseason (they're now both expected to head to Indiana). The Bulldogs were creative while replacing them with Ben McCollum from Division II power Northwest Missouri State.
McCollum broke the program record for wins (30) during his first season at Drake behind a lineup mainly made up of players he brought with him from Northwest Missouri State. With Bennett Stirtz leading the way as maybe the most underrated player in the NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs should be able to expose a wishy-washy Missouri defense and win a shootout.
🚨 No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Clemson
📅 Tipoff: 3:15 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +285 via BetRivers
McNeese was the Cinderella everyone was forecasting to go on a Sweet 16 run a few days ago. But the news that head coach Will Wade is taking the NC State job may throw a slight wrinkle into the Cowboys' upset ability against the coach's alma mater. Still, this is one of the most well-rounded mid-majors in the tournament, and the team boasts the Southland Player of the Year in guard Javohn Garcia.
This matchup with Clemson will be a rock fight, with both teams leaning on strong defensive play and slower-paced offenses. But the Cowboys should be able to keep it close and potentially pull off the stunner. We know student manager Amir Khan will have the Cowboys fired up to go.
👉 Can't get enough upsets? Check out our detailed history of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🚀 Best March Madness upset moneyline parlay today
If you combine all three of my favorite upset picks today into a moneyline parlay, you can turn a winning $10 bet into a $526.30 profit at FanDuel. Be sure to use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay during the NCAA Tournament:
🚨 No. 12 UC San Diego (+118) over No. 5 Michigan
🚨 No. 11 VCU (+114) over No. 6 BYU
🚨 No. 11 Drake (+215) over No. 6 Missouri
🚨 No. 12 McNeese (+265) over No. 5 Clemson
📊 Best parlay odds: +5263 via FanDuel ($10 to win $526.30)
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👉 Want more parlay bets? Check out our best March Madness first-round upsets as well as our best March Madness parlay picks for Round 1.
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🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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