Best March Madness Upset Predictions Today: Which Underdogs Should You Bet Friday?
If John Calipari hadn't taken his timeout into next season, we might have had an upset on the first night of the Sweet 16. Instead, every favorite won, thanks to Texas Tech putting together an unforgettable comeback to beat Arkansas.
It could be much of the same in the final four games of the Sweet 16, with our best March Madness upset picks today steering clear of the March Madness odds favorites and focusing on a hot SEC team and the third matchup of the season between conference foes.
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions and stay up to date with the March Madness Sweet 16 odds and schedule.
💰 Ranking today's March Madness underdogs by best moneyline odds
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
| Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) | Best ML odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss (6) | vs. Michigan State (2) | +150 via DraftKings |
| Kentucky (3) | vs. Tennessee (2) | +170 via DraftKings |
| Michigan (5) | vs. Auburn (1) | +340 via BetRivers |
| Purdue (4) | vs. Houston (1) | +340 via BetRivers |
👉 Want to cash your upset picks? Check out the most common March Madness upsets by seed and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🎯 Our best March Madness upset picks & predictions today
If this tournament and yesterday's Sweet 16 games have taught us anything, it's that the best teams are going to find a way to win.
This has been a top-heavy year of college basketball, and March Madness' chalkiness has reflected that through the first two-and-a-half rounds. All eight teams playing tonight have been ranked in the top 16 at various points this season, so each has the talent to pull out a win.
🚨 No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 2 Michigan State
📅 Tipoff: 7:09 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +150 via DraftKings
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My favorite upset pick of the Sweet 16, these are two teams trending in different directions since the start of the NCAA Tournament. While Ole Miss just beat No. 3 seed Iowa State by double digits, Michigan State struggled with double-digit seed New Mexico and needed a second-half comeback to win.
Tom Izzo is Mr. March, but the Spartans' inefficiency from behind the arc is a major concern this deep into the tournament. Michigan State ranks outside the top 320 in made 3-pointers per game (6.0) and 3-point percentage (31%), and Chris Beard's Rebels defense is 21st in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, while playing at its best when defending inside the arc.
Ole Miss pulling off this upset will depend on whether Sean Pedulla can continue to be one of the most dynamic players in the NCAA Tournament. The Virginia Tech transfer is averaging 20 PPG and 6.5 APG while shooting 41.7% from deep, and the Rebels will need him to keep that up against one of the nation's best defenses.
🚨 No. 3 Kentucky over No. 2 Tennessee
📅 Tipoff: 7:39 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +170 via DraftKings
Betting on Kentucky to win is more about the odds at our best sports betting sites and the other matchups on the board than it is about how confident I am in the Wildcats. Mark Pope's team has already beaten Tennessee twice this season and just took down an Illinois team with multiple NBA draft picks.
Meanwhile, Michigan struggled against UC San Diego, so it's hard to see the Wolverines beating the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, even if Auburn hasn't played like it. And I think Houston will annihilate Purdue, with the Cougars looking like the second-best team in the country with an all-time defense.
Kentucky, on the other hand, has shut down Chaz Lanier in both matchups against Tennessee and has a seemingly healthy Lamont Butler. If Otega Oweh and Koby Brea are hitting shots and Amari Williams owns the paint, a third-straight win over Tennessee is far more possible than Houston or Auburn losing. This game is a true toss-up.
👉 Can't get enough upsets? Check out our detailed history of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🚀 Best March Madness upset moneyline parlay today
If you combine my favorite upset picks today into a moneyline parlay, you can turn a winning $10 bet into a $57.50 profit at DraftKings. Be sure to use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay during the NCAA Tournament:
🚨 No. 6 Ole Miss (+150) over No. 2 Michigan State
🚨 No. 3 Kentucky (+170) over No. 2 Tennessee
📊 Best SGP odds: +575 via DraftKings ($10 to win $57.50)
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🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
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