Memphis vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds & Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets
Today's NCAA Tournament first-round matchup between the No. 5 seed Memphis Tigers (29-5) and the No. 12 Colorado State Rams (25-9) begins at 2 p.m. ET (TBS) with West Region action straight from the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. Let’s get straight into our Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction, odds, and preview, part of the March Madness predictions series.
Despite being the lower-seeded team - and a No. 12 seed at that - Colorado State is the 2.5-point betting favorite against Memphis, and we expect it to live up to the hype and advance in the West Region of the March Madness bracket as one of our best No. 12 vs. No. 5 March Madness upset picks.
🏀 Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction & picks today
Here are my best Memphis vs. Colorado State predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Colorado State -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Memphis ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: PJ Haggerty over 20.5 points (-115 via Fanatics) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Colorado State 75, Memphis 69 (+15000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
🔢 Memphis vs. Colorado State updated betting action
- There's only a narrow gap in spread betting prior to this clash, with 56% backing the Rams to cover -1.5
- But bettors are making a much clearer decision on the total, with the Over on 146.5 points generating 65% of the action
- The spread opened at -2.5 in favor of the Rams, and it's since moved to -1.5 in the hours before tipoff
🏆 Best Memphis vs. Colorado State pick, player prop bet & score prediction
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Colorado State to cover the spread: -1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With all due respect to Memphis’ PJ Haggerty, I'm siding with Colorado State to win and cover. I was a Tigers and Penny Hardaway believer heading into the year, but with what we’ve seen on the floor of late—especially with the injury to point guard Tyrese Hunter—I’m pivoting to the more efficient Rams.
Since Feb. 1, Colorado State is 11-2 and 16th nationally in T-Rank, largely due to their 15th-place ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency and first-place ranking in 3-point percentage (43.7%). Over that same sample, Memphis is 12-1 but only 74th in T-Rank. Colorado State is riding a 10-game winning streak.
The jury is still out on whether Hunter will play on Friday as he recovers from a foot injury. Even if Hunter can play, getting Colorado at -1.5 is a steal.
Of our best sportsbooks, BetMGM offers the most competitive price for this prop.
📊 Best odds: -1.5 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $8.70)
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🔥 PJ Haggerty Over 20.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
I am a Haggerty believer, so even if Memphis gets knocked out in the first round, they won’t go down without a monster game from their star guard.
Haggerty may have struggled with his efficiency without Hunter in the AAC tournament, but he certainly didn’t struggle with volume.
Haggerty attempted a season-high 22 field goals in over 39 minutes in the title game. He also attempted seven free throws. In the previous rounds, he attempted 13 field goals and 14 free throws over 40 minutes. He scored 23 and 18 in those games, respectively.
Haggerty is averaging 21.8 points per game this year, which is third nationally. While the Colorado State defense will likely give him problems, Hardaway wants Haggerty with the ball in his hands, and Haggerty is hellbent on getting the ball in the cup.
As long as Hunter sits, I expect he’ll end up with the requisite opportunities to go over this number.
📊 Best odds: -115 via Fanatics (bet $10 to win $8.70)
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🎯 Score prediction: Colorado State 75, Memphis 69
The total for this game is 147.5, so we’re staying under this projection. We’ve also got Colorado State covering the spread by a healthy margin. Their efficient 3-point shooting and good form will likely overwhelm a shorthanded Memphis squad.
It’s tricky to evaluate Memphis since we don’t know the status of multiple key players, but their struggles against Tulane and, at least in the first half, against UAB at the AAC tournament are concerning, especially as they rank outside Bart Torvik’s top 90 since Feb. 1.
📊 Best odds: +15000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,500)
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🤖 Memphis vs. Colorado State AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Colorado State vs. Memphis. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Colorado State 74, Memphis 71.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Colorado State 74, Memphis 71
- Colorado State's defense, ranked 18th nationally by allowing just 64.1 points per game, could stifle Memphis' high-scoring offense, which averages 80.1 points per game.
- Memphis' turnover issues, averaging 13.4 per game (339th nationally), may be exploited by Colorado State's disciplined defense, potentially leading to additional scoring opportunities for the Rams.
- The Rams' recent form, including a 10-game winning streak and a dominant run in the Mountain West Tournament, suggests they are peaking at the right time, which could be pivotal against a formidable opponent like Memphis.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Colorado State covering the spread (-2.5) and a total of 145 points, aligning closely with the over/under line of 147.5. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Memphis vs. Colorado State odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Memphis vs. Colorado State odds
Our updated Memphis vs. Colorado State odds are via BetMGM.
Spread
Colorado State opened as the -2.5 favorite. However, the Rams have sat at -1.5 since Tuesday evening.
Total
The total opened at 145.5 before quickly jumping to 147.5. It's since oscillated a bit between that number and 146.5, though now it seems to have settled at 147.5.
Moneyline
There's been a gradual shift in the moneyline, with Colorado State opening as the -150 favorite before now moving to -120.
🔢 Memphis vs. Colorado State opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +2.5 (-110) | Colorado State -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +117 | Colorado State -137
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 West Region expert picks
- West Region betting preview
- Florida vs. Norfolk State prediction
- UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction
- Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction
- Maryland prediction Grand Canyon prediction
- Drake vs. Missouri prediction
- Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction
- Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction
- St. John's vs. Omaha prediction
📺 How to watch Memphis vs. Colorado State: NCAA Tournament 1st round
📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 2 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle)
📺 TV: TBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
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