Michigan State vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
The No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (24-11) will look to end the run of favorites winning when they clash with the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans (29-6) today in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. Tipoff from State Farm Arena in Atlanta is at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS).
The Spartans are 3.5-point betting favorites to advance in the South Region of the March Madness bracket. But as I make my Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction, odds, and preview as part of our March Madness predictions, I get into why I think the Spartans are being undervalued.
🔢 Michigan State vs. Ole Miss updated betting action
Updated betting information via BetMGM.
- 79% of the bets and 85% of the handle is on Michigan State (-3.5) to cover
- 52% of the bets and 17% of the handle is on the Over (144.5)
- Michigan State's moneyline odds have lengthened from -160 to -175
🏀 Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction & picks for today
Here are my best Michigan State vs. Ole Miss predictions for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Michigan State -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Ole Miss ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Sean Pedulla Under 15.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Michigan State 76, Ole Miss 67 (+18000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions.
🏆 Best Michigan State vs. Ole Miss pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Michigan State to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Aside from a short time in the second half of their first-round game against the North Carolina Tar Heels, no team looked better than the Rebels on the first weekend. They absolutely dominated both of their opponents, and though they nearly blew a 22-point lead against the Tar Heels, key players made big shots when it mattered most to secure the win.
Despite that, I’m picking the Spartans to cover 3.5 points in this game. They struggled for the majority of both of their games over the first weekend, but once they got hot, they were impossible to stop. The defense was especially good in the second round against the New Mexico Lobos, as the Spartans held Donovan Dent to just 14 points.
The Rebels may have upset the No. 3 seed Iowa State Cyclones by 13, but they were without Keshon Gilbert. While Ole Miss dominated North Carolina, the Tar Heels were among the most inconsistent teams all year. Take the Spartans to win this comfortably.
📊 Best odds: -105 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.52)
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🔥 Sean Pedulla Under 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Pedulla scored 20 points in both games this past weekend. Against the Tar Heels, he shot 50% from the floor and 3-point range, and he made the biggest shot of the game to thwart the Tar Heels’ late-game surge. Despite his numbers from the first two rounds, Pedulla’s total is set at just 15.5 for Friday’s game, and the price for the Over is very favorable to bettors. Don’t take the bait.
Pedulla is averaging just 15.2 points per game this season, and he’s about to face the best defense he’s faced in a very long time. The Spartans are allowing just 67.0 points per game, which is 35th-best in the nation. Each of their first two opponents averaged more than 79 points per game this year, and the Spartans held them to 63 and 62.
Pedulla is the Rebels’ leading scorer, but everything points to oddsmakers laying a trap based on what this number is set at and what the price is. Take his Under.
📊 Best odds: -120 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.33)
🎯 Score prediction: Michigan State 76, Ole Miss 67
The Spartans’ offense didn’t look great on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. While they scored 87 points against the Bryant Bulldogs, they had just 33 at halftime. Those struggles bled into their game against the Lobos.
But the Rebels allow more than 71 points per game. Michigan State will put together a better offensive performance than we saw in the second round, as it plays looser after surviving the first weekend. While Ole Miss can score a lot, the Spartans' defense will shut the offense down, keeping this game lower scoring than many expect.
📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,800)
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🤖 Michigan State vs. Ole Miss AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Michigan State vs. Ole Miss. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Michigan State 75, Ole Miss 64.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Michigan State 75, Ole Miss 64
- Michigan State typically performs well in high-pressure games and has a reputation for strong defense and efficient offense.
- Michigan State usually has a superior defense, and the Spartans’ ability to shut down key scorers from Ole Miss will likely be a decisive factor.
- Tom Izzo is one of the best March Madness coaches in history. His ability to adapt, make in-game adjustments, and prepare his team for tight tournament games often gives Michigan State the edge.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Michigan State covering the spread (-3.5) and a total of Under 144.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Michigan State vs. Ole Miss odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Sweet 16.
🔢 Michigan State vs. Ole Miss opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State -2.5 (-115) | Ole Miss +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Michigan State -160 | Ole Miss +135
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-105) | Under 144.5 (-115)
Michigan State vs. Ole Miss line movement
Line movement in the hours before tipoff via BetMGM.
Spread
The spread opened with Mississippi State as the -2.5 favorite. That went up and down a few times, and it moved to -3.5 Monday afternoon and has mostly been staying there since.
Total
The total has been oscillating between 144.5 and 143.5. It's sat at the higher number since around Wednesday at noon ET.
Moneyline
Michigan State opened as the -160 favorite, and that's steadily been shortening to -175 throughout the week.
📺 How to watch Michigan State vs. Ole Miss: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
📅 Date: Friday, March 28
🕗 Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
📍 Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan prediction
- Houston vs. Purdue prediction
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