Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets
No. 8 seed Mississippi State and No. 9 seed Baylor kick off today's March Madness action after an entertaining first day. Tipoff is expected for 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS) from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., and our Mississippi State vs. Baylor predictions, odds, and preview should get your day started on a good note.
After opening as the favorites for this game, the Bears are now +1.5 underdogs against the Bulldogs, but we expect Baylor's defense to cause some problems for its opponents.
As part of our best March Madness prediction, we also have a bet on the human double-double machine Norchad Omier, but it's likely not the pick you expect.
🏀 Mississippi State vs. Baylor prediction & picks today
Here are my best Mississippi State vs. Baylor prediction for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Baylor +2.5 (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Mississippi State ⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Norchad Omier Under 14.5 points (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Baylor 73, Mississippi State 71 (+14000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
🔢 Mississippi State vs. Baylor updated betting action
- Roughly 60% of the bets at BetMGM are on Baylor to cover, but only 51% of the handle, showing some sharp action on Mississippi State
- Bettors are expecting a high-scoring game, as 63% of the bets and 58% of the handle is on the Over for this game
- This spread has flipped this week, with Baylor opening at as -1.5 favorite but now serving as an underdog by that same margin
🏆 Best Mississippi State vs. Baylor pick, player prop bet & score prediction
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Baylor to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐
Baylor tends to typically start games defensively in man-to-man with all five players ready to switch on ball screens. But once that starts failing, Bears head coach Scott Drew loves to switch to his 1-1-3 morphing zone, which is difficult to prepare for.
Mississippi State does not face much zone defense playing in the SEC. The only team that plays it even close to the majority of the time is Missouri, who beat the Bulldogs by 27 and 12 points in two meetings this season. And Missouri used zone defense on only 23 possessions combined in those two meetings.
But I expect Baylor to rely on it, especially since Mississippi State made just 29.2% of its 3-point attempts in league play.
I am making this wager at DraftKings, which is the only one of our best March Madness betting sites at which one can back the underdogs at +2.5.
📊 Best odds: -115 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8.70)
Terms and conditions apply.
🔥 Norchad Omier Under 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baylor’s Norchad Omier is one of seven D-I players averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds per game.
While Omier broke out for a season-high 29 points in the team’s conference tournament loss to Texas Tech, he scored 13 or fewer points in three of the four games prior to that.
This is a confident four-star play, as Mississippi State ranks in the 91st percentile per Synergy with how often it traps the post. Thus, the Bulldogs should limit Omier to 14 or fewer points just by simply forcing the ball out of his hands often.
📊 Best odds: +100 via BetMGM ($10 to win $10)
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
🎯 Score prediction: Baylor 73, Mississippi State 71
Mississippi State went 12-1 straight-up against non-conference teams this year but did not produce a winning streak longer than two games once getting into the rugged SEC portion of its schedule.
Meanwhile, the Bears are 9-3 in NCAA Tournament games since 2020, which is why I am predicting a mild upset and a final score of Baylor 73, Mississippi State 71.
📊 Best odds: +14000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,400)
🤖 Mississippi State vs. Baylor AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Mississippi State vs. Baylor. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Baylor 74, Mississippi State 65.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Baylor 74, Mississippi State 65
- Baylor has consistently made deep tournament runs, including its historic 2021 National Championship. The Bears’ experience in high-stakes games and their status as perennial contenders makes them a dangerous team come tournament time.
- Baylor’s defense is typically built around pressure, forcing turnovers, and limiting high-percentage shots. The Bears have a reputation for being gritty and tough, often using their defensive prowess to drive momentum.
- Mississippi State’s strength is its defense, but it struggles to match up with Baylor’s offensive versatility. The Bulldogs will try to slow the game down, but Baylor’s ability to run in transition and hit threes gives it an edge.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Baylor covering the spread (+2.5) and a total of Under 144.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Mississippi State vs. Baylor odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Mississippi State vs. Baylor odds
Our updated Mississippi State vs. Baylor odds are via BetMGM.
Spread
As mentioned, this game opened with Baylor serving as a small favorite, but the roles have been reversed, as Mississippi State is a -1.5 favorite just hours before tipoff.
Total
This total opened at 146.5 before dropping quickly to 143.5. However, it's now settled at 145.5 just ahead of tipoff.
Moneyline
Along with the spread, the moneyline has flipped, too. Baylor was a -125 favorite to win outright but is now trading at +105. That's a difference in roughly 7% of implied probability.
🔢 Mississippi State vs. Baylor opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State -1.5 (+105) | Baylor +1.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Mississippi State -110 | Baylor -110
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 East Region expert picks
- East Region betting preview
- Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's prediction
- Baylor vs. Mississippi State prediction
- Oregon vs. Liberty prediction
- Arizona vs. Akron prediction
- VCU vs. BYU prediction
- Wisconsin vs. Montana prediction
- Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt prediction
- Alabama vs. Robert Morris prediction
📺 How to watch Mississippi State vs. Baylor: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, N.C.)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: Paramount+, March Madness Live
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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