Missouri vs. Drake Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: NCAA Tournament Best Bets

The No. 6 Missouri Tigers (22-11) take on No. 11 Drake Bulldogs (30-3) in a West Region first-round showdown tonight at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV) from the INTRUST Bank Arena in Wichita, Kan. Let’s get into the best Missouri vs. Drake prediction, odds, and preview. 

Missouri is the betting favorite for this NCAA Tournament first-round contest, with a 6.5-point advantage over Drake. Our March Madness predictions series continues with this surprising prediction

🏀 Missouri vs. Drake prediction & picks tonight

Here are my best Missouri vs. Drake predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Drake +6.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Missouri ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Bennett Stirtz Over 17.5 points (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Drake 65, Missouri 64 (+16000 via DraftKings)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.

🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7

🏆 Best Missouri vs. Drake pick, player prop bet & score prediction

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Drake to cover the spread: +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While I am high on the SEC, which just sent a record-setting 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament, the conference will lose some of its first-round games, and one of those could be Thursday’s battle between Missouri and Drake. Since February 1, the Bulldogs are the slowest in pace nationally, playing at a pace that is a whopping 15% slower than the national average.

Shooting variance gains significance in slow-paced games, which can help lower-seeded teams like Drake cover or even score upsets. So, even though Missouri sits at an impressive 14th in T-Rank since February 1, largely due to its second-place ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency, I still think the Bulldogs have a good shot.

It helps that Drake is a well-disciplined team, ranking 15th in free-throw rate since February 1. Missouri may rank 28th in free-throw rate through that sample, too, but the school also ranks 341st in opponent free-throw rate. Missouri also ranked seventh-worst in personal fouls committed per road game this season.

In a slow-paced game, extra trips to the stripe matter that much more. Back the Bulldogs to cover and possibly win.

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)

🔥 Bennett Stirtz Over 17.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

My first instinct when handicapping the Missouri vs. Drake player prop markets was to get the Under for a Missouri player, but no books are taking action on those lines yet, so I’ll settle for a surprisingly cheap Bennett Stirtz Over.

Stirtz is Drake’s leading scorer, averaging 19.1 points per game, and he now finds himself in what is probably a pace-up spot versus an SEC offense.

While it’ll be tricky for Stirtz to replicate his strong play against a higher-caliber opponent, Missouri is only 104th in adjusted defensive rating since February 1, and it's 343rd in opponent shooting percentage from inside the arc. Add in the free throws that Missouri’s defense is likely to give him, and Stirtz should soar over the 17.5.

📊 Best odds: -115 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8.70)

🎯 Exact score prediction: Drake 65, Missouri 64

The total is set to a rock-bottom 132.5, so we’re going slightly Under and backing Drake to score the upset with this Missouri vs. Drake final score prediction. The Tigers’ inefficient defense and apparent lack of discipline are major red flags versus a slow-paced, deliberate team like the one they’ll play on Thursday.

Let’s not forget that before the Tigers won their opening-round SEC tournament matchup, they were on a three-game losing skid, falling at Vanderbilt, at Oklahoma, and to Kentucky. The win over Mississippi State was nice, but immediately getting smacked by Florida had to hurt.

In contrast, Drake is riding high off a tournament win.

📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,600)

🤖 Missouri vs. Drake AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Missouri vs. Drake. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Missouri 75, Drake 68.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Missouri 75, Drake 68

• Missouri's high-octane offense, averaging 84.5 points per game, contrasts sharply with Drake's methodical pace, which ranks as the slowest in the nation. This tempo disparity will be pivotal in determining the game's rhythm.
• Drake's defensive prowess, allowing just 58.4 points per game - the best in the country - will be tested against Missouri's versatile scoring options, including Mark Mitchell and Caleb Grill.
• The Bulldogs' experience, with four starters transitioning from Division II under coach Ben McCollum, has translated into a remarkable 30-3 record, showcasing their resilience and cohesion.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Missouri covering the spread (-6.5) and a total of 143 points, surpassing the over/under line of 133.5. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Missouri vs. Drake odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.

Latest Missouri vs. Drake odds

We're breaking down the Missouri vs. Drake odds in the hours ahead of tipoff.

Spread

Missouri is laying 6.5 points as the betting favorite in this first-round showdown. The line has held strong at the opening number, but Drake +6.5 holds -115 odds.

Total

The Over/Under has dropped a point from the opening line to sit at 132.5 heading to tipoff. The Over is juiced to -115, so this may tick back up.

Moneyline

Missouri is a -255 moneyline favorite with a 72% implied win probability for the outright victory.

🔢 Missouri vs. Drake opening odds

• Spread: Missouri -6.5 (-115) | Drake +6.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Missouri -285 | Drake +228
• Over/Under: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)

📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.

🔮 West Region expert picks

• West Region betting preview
• Florida vs. Norfolk State prediction
• UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction
• Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction
• Maryland prediction Grand Canyon prediction
• Drake vs. Missouri prediction
• Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction
• Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction
• St. John's vs. Omaha prediction

📺 How to watch Missouri vs. Drake: NCAA Tournament first round

📅 Date: Thursday, March 20
🕗 Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
📍 Location: INTRUST Arena (Wichita, Kan.)
📺 TV: truTV
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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