What are the Most Common March Madness Upsets in NCAA Tournament History?

Andrew Reid

Last Updated: March 18, 2025 4:00 AM EDT • 5 min 57 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Most Common March Madness Upsets: Which Seeds Win Most Often in First Round? — Pictured: Furman Paladins players and coaches celebrate after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers at Amway Center. Photo by Russell Lansford / Imagn Images.

March Madness is all about buzzer-beaters and Cinderella runs. Sure, no team seeded ninth or worse has ever won it all, but the most memorable highlights from the NCAA Tournament involve those seeds pulling off historic upsets - especially in the first round.

Here's a look at the most common March Madness upsets, including all-time records and recent results for every seed from No. 9 to No. 16 entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Our latest tips help you predict March Madness upsets before the tournament begins.

🏀 Which seeds win the most often in the NCAA Tournament?

Seed	First-round record	All-time record	Best finish
No. 9	81-75 (.519) vs. No. 8	96-156 (.381)	Final Four (x2)
No. 10	60-95 (.387) vs. No. 7	94-155 (.378)	Final Four (x1)
No. 11	61-95 (.391) vs. No. 6	104-156 (.400)	Final Four (x5)
No. 12	55-101 (.353) vs. No. 5	79-156 (.336)	Elite Eight (x2)
No. 13	33-123 (.212) vs. No. 4	39-156 (.200)	Sweet 16 (x6)
No. 14	23-133 (.147) vs. No. 3	25-156 (.138)	Sweet 16 (x2)
No. 15	11-145 (.071) vs. No. 2	16-156 (.093)	Elite Eight (x1)
No. 16	2-154 (.013) vs. No. 1	2-156 (.013)	Second round (x2)

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📈 Most common March Madness upsets: Seed history & trends

🐶 No. 9 seed

First-round record vs. No. 8 seed: 81-75 (0.519)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 13-7 (0.650)
All-time record: 96-156 (.381)
Best finish: Final Four (2 times)

Historically, No. 9 seeds have a slight edge over No. 8 seeds - the only underdog to have a winning record in the first round of the Big Dance. Over the last five tournaments, they've done even better than the historical mark, winning at a 65% clip.

It might be worth keeping that in mind as you fill out your bracket, as the gap between the No. 8 and the No. 9 isn't that great. Even the selection committee struggles to get the right team on top.

🐶 No. 10 seed

First-round record vs. No. 7 seed: 60-95 (0.387)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 8-11 (0.421)*
All-time record: 94-155 (.378)
Best finish: Final Four (1 time)

It's a big drop-off from the historical success of the No. 9 seed - which wins 51.9% of the time - to the No. 10 seed only advancing beyond the first round at a 38.7% clip. However, as parity continues to take hold across college sports, that number has bumped up to 42.1% over the last five NCAA Tournaments.

* In 2021, No. 7 seed Oregon vs. No. 10 seed VCU was declared a no-contest due to COVID-19 protocols with the seventh-seeded Ducks advancing to the second round.

🐶 No. 11 seed

First-round record vs. No. 6 seed: 61-95 (0.391)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 10-10 (0.500)
All-time record: 104-156 (.400)
Best finish: Final Four (5 times)

One of the strangest trends is that No. 11 seeds are more successful than No. 10 seeds across the entire history of the tournament and in recent years. Over the last five tournaments, No. 11 seeds have won half their games in 20 tries. They've also reached the Final Four more than No. 9 and No. 10 seeds combined (four) since 1985.

Mostly recently, No. 11 seed NC State reached the Final Four last year with wins over No. 6 seed Texas Tech, No. 14 seed Oakland, No. 2 seed Marquette, and No. 4 seed Duke before falling to No. 1 seed Purdue in the Final Four.

🐶 No. 12 seed

First-round record vs. No. 5 seed: 55-101 (0.353)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 8-12 (0.400)
All-time record: 79-156 (.336)
Best finish: Elite Eight (2 times)

Famously, we're been drilled that No. 12 seeds are the best upset pick over No. 5 seeds, but the numbers don't exactly bear that out as you might think. That matchup still produces fewer upsets than we see from No. 9, No. 10, or No. 11 seeds (which makes sense), a fact that remains true historically and over the last five tournaments.

Of the lower seeds, the No. 12 seed is the first on the way down the list to not reach the Final Four. Only two have reached the Elite Eight: Oregon State (2021) and Missouri (2002).

Our Gabe Henderson recommends picking at least one 12-seed in his March Madness bracket tips for beginners.

🐶 No. 13 seed

First-round record vs. No. 4 seed: 33-123 (0.212)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 5-15 (0.250)
All-time record: 39-156 (.200)
Best finish: Sweet 16 (6 times)

Things take a big dive here, with 14.1% fewer No. 13 seeds moving on than No. 12 seeds. Over the last five tournaments, only five No. 13 seeds have made it beyond the opening round in 20 tries, and they don't tend to hang around beyond a second victory.

Six No. 13 seeds have reached the Sweet 16, but we haven't seen one make it that far in over a decade (La Salle, 2013), and none have ever advanced beyond that stage.

Our Rob Paul warns about the dangers of picking too many upsets in his expert March Madness bracket tips.

🐶 No. 14 seed

First-round record vs. No. 3 seed: 23-133 (0.147)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 2-18 (0.100)
All-time record: 25-156 (.138)
Best finish: Sweet 16 (2 times)

While historically No. 14 seeds have done marginally better than No. 15 seeds in the first round, only two have escaped their opening draw over the last five tournaments.

The party ends for most in the second round, but we've seen two No. 14 seeds reach the Sweet 16. Memories of those two squads are fuzzy at best for even diehard March Madness fans: Chattanooga (1997) and Cleveland State (1986) are the only teams to accomplish the feat.

🐶 No. 15 seed

First-round record vs. No. 2 seed: 11-145 (0.071)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 3-17 (0.150)
All-time record: 16-156 (.093)
Best finish: Elite Eight (1 time)

Shockingly, No. 15 seeds have found more success recently than No. 14 seeds ... but only marginally. We've seen three No. 15 seeds advance over the last five tournaments, though only 11 teams have done so since the tournament expanded in 1985.

The three No. 15 seeds to win over the last five tournaments have been among the best in NCAA Tournament history. Oral Roberts (2021) and Princeton (2023) both reached the Sweet 16, while Saint Peter's (2022) is the lone 15-seed to reach the Elite Eight.

🐶 No. 16 seed

First-round record vs. No. 1 seed: 2-154 (0.013)
First-round record (last 5 tournaments): 1-19 (0.050)
All-time record: 2-156 (.013)
Best finish: 2nd round (2 times)

You really don't want to get too cute here. Only twice in NCAA Tournament history has a No. 16 seed knocked off a No. 1 seed, and neither managed to secure a second victory.

UMBC (2018) shocked No. 1 seed Virginia in its opener before losing to No. 9 seed Kansas State in the second round. Five years later, Fairleigh Dickinson snuck past No. 1 seed Purdue before also falling to a No. 9 seed in Florida Atlantic in the Round of 32.

🎯 Which upsets should you target in your March Madness bracket?

If we know one thing about March Madness, it's that there will inevitably be a few shocking upsets in the first round and at least one surprise team that makes a deep run through the NCAA Tournament.

So we've asked our college basketball experts to identify the best Cinderella teams ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

🏀 March Madness expert predictions

🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips

📅 March Madness key dates

Selection Sunday: March 16
First Four: March 18-19
First round: March 20-21
Second round: March 22-23
Sweet 16: March 27-28
Elite Eight: March 29-30
Final Four: Saturday, April 5
National championship game: Monday, April 7

🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today

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Written By:
Andrew Reid

Andrew is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He graduated from Acadia University with a degree in Kinesiology, working as a personal trainer and in injury rehab, and then attended the College of Sports Media in Toronto to attain a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting. Andrew has been involved in the sports betting and fantasy sports space since joining the FNTSY Sports Network in 2014, where he worked as a producer, director, and occasional on-air talent on various shows focusing on sports betting and DFS content. Prior to joining SBR, he spent multiple years with the USA Today Network as an editor and writer. Living in Newfoundland, Andrew frequents grey market sportsbooks, but in the past, when he's lived in regulated areas, he's become well-versed with all of our best sportsbooks. As strictly a casual bettor, he enjoys making touchdown parlays with friends (bro-lays), sweating out golf cut parlays during majors, playing same-game parlays for fun, and chasing long-shot bets. He also enjoys using sportsbooks that have solid iGaming and casino platforms. As the old guy on staff, he has an affinity for industry news, which confuses some, but shh ... quiet ... the news is on.