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NC State vs. North Carolina Prediction, Pick & Odds: ACC Tournament Championship

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 16, 2024 6:38 PM EDT • 3 min 8 sec read.

The North Carolina Tar Heels face the NC State Wolfpack in the ACC Tournament Championship on Saturday, as we make our best NC State vs. North Carolina prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have already defeated the NC State Wolfpack twice this season, first in Raleigh 67-54, then again in Chapel Hill 79-70 on March 2. 

The stars of the series have been Harrison Ingram and RJ Davis. Ingram brought down 19 rebounds in the first meeting, then scored 22 points in the second. Davis dropped 16 and 14 points, respectively, in the two games. He also pulled down seven boards and dished out five assists in the second contest.

A win for either side will greatly improve their March Madness odds and Final Four odds.

As part of our college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday, here is our best NC State vs. North Carolina prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NC State vs. North Carolina odds

Don't miss our Oregon vs. Colorado prediction for more on Saturday's action.

NC State vs. North Carolina prediction: ACC Tournament Championship

Under 146.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel

These two teams each average over 75 points per game and combine for 157.7 points per contest. Defensively, both teams are decent, but neither is so good that it will be able to shut down its championship game opponent.

However, this is the fifth game in five days for the Wolfpack. How much do they have left, especially after taking down the Virginia Cavaliers late in overtime late Friday night? The fatigue was already starting to show, as leading scorer DJ Horne was just 2-for-9 from the field in 40 minutes. He’s in for another tough night against the Tar Heels, and he’s unlikely to top 14 points.

Additionally, even when these teams were fresh this season, they didn’t light up the scoreboard against each other. In the first meeting, only 121 points were scored. In the second meeting, that number barely topped Saturday's total, as the teams combined for 149 points.

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NC State vs. North Carolina best odds

FanDuel (-106)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Under 145.5Under 146.5Under 145.5Under 145Under 145
-110-110-110-110-110

FanDuel is slow to drop this total, which is great for bettors backing the Under. All of our other best sports betting sites have dropped the number at least one point. 

We’d take the Under as low as 140, as tired legs are going to play a huge role on Saturday. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel is offering Under 140.5 for +172. It’s worth considering this alt-line in addition to the standard line of 146.5.

NC State vs. North Carolina spread & Over/Under analysis

The Tar Heels opened as 8.5-point favorites, and the spread has grown to 9 or 9.5 at all of our best sports betting apps except for FanDuel. The Wolfpack have played the Tar Heels close this season, but considering North Carolina is the fourth-ranked team in the country and is being talked about as a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament on every major network right now, the public should back the Tar Heels. This spread will likely hit 10 before tip-off.

The total opened at 146.5, and it has decreased by at least a point at all of our best sportsbooks except for FanDuel. This total could go either way before tip-off. With this being the ACC Championship, it will be one of the most publicly bet games of the day which favors the Over. But sharp bettors will be backing the under because of the fatigue factor. Therefore, this number should continue to hover around 145.

ACC Tournament Championship game info

  • When: Saturday, March 16
  • Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
  • How to watch: ESPN

NC State vs. North Carolina prediction made Saturday at 9:04 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.