North Carolina vs. Florida State Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Our Best Bets for Tonight
Leonard Hamilton will coach his last game against North Carolina (17-11) tonight while trying to guide his Florida State Seminoles (16-11) to a victory against the Tar Heels beginning at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Fla.
The Tar Heels have been struggling to meet their preseason expectations in the March Madness odds. But they're still the 3-point favorites tonight, and we think their recent quality form will continue in our North Carolina vs. Florida State prediction and odds.
North Carolina vs. Florida State predictions, expert picks & best bets today
Here are my best North Carolina vs. Florida State predictions, expert picks, and best bets tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: North Carolina -2 (-110 via bet365) vs. Florida State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: RJ Davis Over 15.5 points (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
North Carolina vs. Florida State ATS pick & score prediction
Thanks to the Tar Heels shifting their lineup around, and RJ Davis being an All-American talent, I'm predicting North Carolina will cover the spread (-2).
🏀 North Carolina to cover the spread: -2 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Coming into the season North Carolina had high hopes, but Davis' team has been a mess for much of the year and isn't even projected to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bracket Matrix. However, those struggles have led to a lineup change that's resulted in the Heels winning three straight and covering in two straight.
With a rotation that runs eight-deep now, and is led by Davis, North Carolina is 35th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and is first in ACC play in 2-pointers per game (20.5). That should be enough to push a Florida State team that's 14th in the ACC in points allowed per game (75.2) and 15th in 3-pointers allowed (8.7).
Given the Seminoles' defensive struggles in conference play, and their non-existent offense (140th in adjusted efficiency), Hamilton's last game against North Carolina doesn't look winnable. Florida State is 7-9 ATS in ACC play this season.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🎯 Final score prediction: North Carolina 77, Florida State 71
Thanks to Davis's changes to the Tar Heels' lineup, which have helped on both ends of the court, North Carolina has looked like a far more competent team lately. That's why I'm predicting a final score of North Carolina 77, Florida State 71, with the Tar Heels leaning on Davis to leave Tallahassee with a decisive win.
Correct score odds: +15000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,500)
Best North Carolina vs. Florida State player prop bet
Here is my best North Carolina vs. Florida State player prop bet tonight. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
💰 RJ Davis Over 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even in a down season for North Carolina, Davis remains one of the most dynamic scorers in the country and sits sixth in the ACC in PPG (17.3). The All-American is one of the highest usage players in the conference, too, averaging the third-most field goals per game (14.2), fourth-most 3-point attempts (6.7), and 12th-most free throw attempts (4.6).
He should have every opportunity to light up a Florida State defense that's 55th in adjusted efficiency and has been torched by conference opponents. The Seminoles allow the sixth-highest 3-point percentage in ACC games (36.5%) and the second-most made free throws (15.5).
Davis has put up 16-plus points in 19 games this season (67.8%), including in eight of his last 10 while averaging 17.5 PPG over that stretch. If you feel like taking advantage of longer odds, our other best sports betting sites have Davis' line set at 16.5 (-110).
Best odds: -135 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $7.41)
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North Carolina vs. Florida State AI prediction
We asked ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI, to offer its best AI prediction for North Carolina vs. Florida State tonight - including its pick to win and exact score prediction. ChatGPT is a large language model and is not specifically designed for sports betting predictions.
🤖 AI score prediction: North Carolina 78, Florida State 74
With RJ Davis spearheading North Carolina’s offense and their revamped lineup providing more balance, the Tar Heels should overcome Florida State’s length and aggressive defense, and the projected final score is North Carolina 78, Florida State 74.
- The Tar Heels have shown improvement, winning four of their last five games., and coach Hubert Davis has experimented with various lineups with the strategy boosting the productivity of Ven-Allen Lubin and Jae'Lyn Withers
- The Seminoles are known for their athletic defensive rotations and have a significant size advantage, which could pose problems for North Carolina's lineup
- North Carolina's new starting lineup has improved offensive productivity and defensive stability.
This game is crucial for North Carolina as they aim to enhance their NCAA Tournament prospects, while Florida State seeks to capitalize on their home advantage to secure a significant conference win.
📊 Live North Carolina vs. Florida State odds
Here are the latest odds for North Carolina vs. Florida State, which update in real time. You can also check out the rest of our NCAAB scores as they happen.
🔢 North Carolina vs. Florida State opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for North Carolina vs. Florida State according to bet365.
- Spread: North Carolina -2 (-110) | Florida State +2 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 156 (-110) | Under 156 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Carolina -140 | Florida State +120
📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. Florida State tonight
📅 Date: Monday, Feb. 24, 2025
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Tucker Center (Tallahassee, Fla.)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
❓North Carolina vs. Florida State FAQs
Who is favored to win North Carolina vs. Florida State?
North Carolina is a -134 moneyline favorite, implying a 57.26% probability the Tar Heels will beat Florida State
What are the odds for North Carolina vs. Florida State?
North Carolina is a 2-point road favorite against Florida State, with the game total sitting between 155.5 and 156.5.
What time is North Carolina vs. Florida State tonight?
North Carolina vs. Florida State is tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
📈 College basketball betting odds pages
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🏀 Best college basketball betting sites
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