North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction Tonight: NCAA Tournament First Four Odds & Picks
The San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) in tonight's continuation of the NCAA Tournament First Four. Tipoff is set for 9:10 p.m. ET (truTV) from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
Our North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions, odds, and preview help determine which No. 11 seed will advance to face No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round of the South Region in the March Madness bracket. You can see Rob Paul's full South Region preview here.
Despite many questioning why the Tar Heels made the tournament, they enter this play-in battle as 4.5-point betting favorites. We like their chances of winning tonight and making a run in the NCAA Tournament as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions & picks for Tuesday 's First Four matchup
Here are my best North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions for the First Four game of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: San Diego State +4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. North Carolina ⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Elliot Cadeau Over 4.5 assists (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: North Carolina 74, San Diego State 72 (+14000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round picks.
🏆 Best North Carolina vs. San Diego State pick, player prop bet & score prediction
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ San Diego State to cover the spread: +4.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Although I like the Tar Heels as one of my five upset predictions in the first round, they have a fight ahead of them before then.
San Diego State is two years removed from a run to the national title game, but the identity remains the same. This team is ranked No. 13 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and might be getting Magoon Gwath back from injury.
Gwath, who hasn’t played since Feb. 22, was the Mountain West Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year. If he’s back in the lineup, this number is too high, and KenPom’s score projection (73-71 in UNC’s favor) reflects that. Regardless of which team makes it, neither will be a March Madness odds favorite.
📊 Best odds: +4.5 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Elliot Cadeau Over 4.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With San Diego State’s primary defensive focus on slowing down RJ Davis, I expect sophomore guard Elliot Cadeau to deliver. He’s averaging six assists per game, ranking 18th in the nation in assist rate (18.9%).
Cadeau recorded five assists in Friday’s narrow loss to Duke. It marked the ninth time in the past 12 games that he’s cleared this assist prop. He has two double-digit assist performances this month.
This line is as high as -146 at Caesars, suggesting value in FanDuel’s offering. Of our best sports betting sites, FanDuel's price is the most competitive.
📊 Best odds: -114 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.77)
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🎯 Score prediction: North Carolina 74, San Diego State 72
I’ll navigate a tricky middle spot, where I expect North Carolina to win and San Diego State to cover. It’s not as crazy as it sounds based on public projections, particularly with KenPom forecasting a 73-71 battle.
📊 Best odds: +14000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,400)
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🤖 North Carolina vs. San Diego State AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for North Carolina vs. San Diego State. Our AI prediction projects a final score of North Carolina 73, San Diego State 72.
🖥️ AI score prediction: North Carolina 73, San Diego State 72
- Known for their defensive prowess, the Aztecs allow just 63.6 points per game, ranking 14th nationally.
- The Tar Heels' offense, which averages 80.8 points per game, is potent.
- North Carolina’s recent form—winning eight of the last 10 games—gives this team a slight edge.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean VCU covering the spread (+3.5) and a total of Under 146.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live North Carolina vs. San Diego State odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Bettors have flocked to the books to bet on North Carolina in the hours leading up to tipoff tonight. While the Tar Heels opened up as 3.5-point favorites in the First Four against San Diego State, they're now trading at -5 with some of our best live betting sites.
Most books are reporting more than 60% of action on the spread is backing North Carolina in the hour leading up to tipoff tonight from UD Arena.
🔢 North Carolina vs. San Diego State opening odds
- Spread: UNC -3.5 (-120) | SDSU +3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: UNC -175 | SDSU +145
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 First Four expert picks
- Saint Francis vs. Alabama State prediction
- North Carolina vs. San Diego State prediction
- March Madness picks and predictions: Which First Four teams have best odds to reach second round?
- Which March Madness First Four teams have best Final Four odds?
- March Madness first-round predictions
📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. San Diego State: NCAA Tournament first four
📅 Date: Tuesday, March 28
🕗 Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
📍 Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
📺 TV: truTV
💻 Streaming: truTV app
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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