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Oregon vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament First Round

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 21, 2025 8:29 PM EDT • 4 min 40 sec read.

Oregon vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: March Madness Best Bets
Pictured: Oregon Ducks guard Jackson Shelstad shoots the ball. Photo by Trevor Ruszkowski via Imagn Images

Tonight's NCAA Tournament first-round finale sees the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames and the No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks battle from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle at 10:10 p.m. ET (truTV).

As part of our March Madness predictions, our Oregon vs. Liberty prediction believes the Ducks' Jackson Shelstad will be too much for the Flames' defense, leading to the Ducks covering and advancing in the March Madness bracket. 

🏀 Oregon vs. Liberty prediction & picks today

Here are my best Oregon vs. Liberty predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Oregon -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Liberty ⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Jackson Shelstad Over 13.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Oregon 77, Liberty 68 (+15000 via DraftKings)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.

🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7

🔢 Oregon vs. Liberty updated betting action

  • BetMGM has experienced a ton of action on the underdog in this one, as 63% of the handle on the spread has come on Liberty to cover
  • The action on the total is much more of an even split
  • This spread has bounced around from 6.5 points to 7.5 all week, but it's settled at the former on game day

🏆 Best Oregon vs. Liberty pick, player prop bet & score prediction

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Oregon to cover the spread: -6.5 ⭐⭐

Liberty is essentially playing a road game in this matchup having to go cross-country to face an Oregon team not far from this Seattle location.

The Flames won at least 27 games for the second time in the last three years, but tend to struggle when playing up in competition. Liberty has gone 0-10 SU against BartTorvik top 50 teams over the last six seasons.

The Flames run an efficient offense that ranks in the top five in the country in effective field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. But Liberty struggles with athletic teams, evidenced by allowing 82 points per game to Kennesaw State in the final two matchups.

Oregon was playing some of its best basketball of the season with an eight-game winning streak prior to bowing out of the Big Ten tournament. As the more battle-tested team with the crowd behind them, I expect the Ducks to advance and cover.

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)

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🔥 Jackson Shelstad Over 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

In my Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction for the Big Ten tournament quarterfinal, I easily cashed my five-star player prop when Jackson Shelstad finished with eight points, staying under his projected total of 14.5.

I cited Michigan State’s Jaden Akins’ defense as the primary reason for that analysis, but Liberty has nobody at the guard position nearly as quick or athletic as Akins.

Shelstad has scored 17-plus points in three of the last five games and seven of the previous 11. 

He is a great bet to go off against a Flames defense that allows assists at the third-lowest rate of opponents’ field goal attempts, making Liberty more susceptible to players who can create their own shot like Shelstad can.

📊 Best odds: -120 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.33)

🎯 Score prediction: Oregon 77, Liberty 68

The Ducks were dominant in the non-conference portion of their schedule, winning the Players Era Festival with wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama (all NCAA Tournament teams) and wins over two other tournament teams against Troy and Montana.

That’s why I am predicting a final score of Oregon 77, Liberty 68. 

📊 Best odds: +15000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1500)

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🤖 Oregon vs. Liberty AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Oregon vs. Liberty. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Liberty 68, Oregon 64.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Liberty 68, Oregon 64

  • Oregon is making its second straight NCAA Tournament appearance and ninth under Altman. It has won at least one game in each of those appearances while reaching as far as the Final Four in 2017
  • Liberty’s disciplined defense will be the key. Its ability to control the tempo and limit Oregon’s fast break and 3-point shooting will give it an edge in a tightly contested game
  • Liberty’s defensive discipline and slow-tempo approach will keep Oregon from getting into a rhythm, leading to a narrow but important win for the Flames

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Liberty covering the spread (+6.5) and a total of Under 139.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Oregon vs. Liberty odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.

Latest Oregon vs. Liberty odds

Our updated Oregon vs. Liberty odds are via BetMGM.

Spread

  • The Ducks are 6.5-point betting favorites at -115, carrying an implied probability of 53.49%
  • The Flames are 6.5-point betting underdogs, juiced at -105, implying a 51.22% probability.

Total

  • The Oregon vs. Liberty betting total is at 137.5 points. The Over and Under are at the -110 standard juice.

Moneyline

  • Oregon is the -300 favorites (75%), and Liberty is the +240 underdog (29.41%).

🔢 Oregon vs. Liberty opening odds

  • Spread: Oregon -6.5 (-115) | Liberty +6.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Oregon -300 | Liberty +240
  • Over/Under: Over 140.5 (-110) | Under 140.5 (-110)

📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.

🔮 East Region expert picks

📺 How to watch Oregon vs. Liberty: NCAA Tournament first round

📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle)
📺 TV: truTV
💻 Streaming: Sling TV

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”