Oregon vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Score Picks: Big Ten Conference Quarterfinal Best Bets

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 14, 2025 7:01 AM EDT • 4 min 48 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Score Picks: Big Ten Conference Quarterfinal Best Bets — Pictured: Oregon Ducks guard Keeshawn Barthelemy celebrates a made basket. Photo by Trevor Ruszkowski via Imagn Images.

Two of the hottest teams in the Big Ten Conference meet on Friday in a quarterfinal matchup when Oregon takes on Michigan State. Tipoff is at noon ET (BTN) from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind.

Our Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction, odds, and expert picks for the Big Ten Conference quarterfinal recognize that this game should be a doozy. Oregon has won eight straight games, while Michigan State is on a seven-game winning streak.

The Spartans beat the Ducks 86-74 at home on Feb. 8, but we analyze what will be different about this rematch.

💰 Oregon vs. Michigan State predictions, expert picks & best bets: Big Ten Conference Quarterfinal

Here are my best Oregon vs. Michigan State predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for the Big Ten Conference Quarterfinal with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

Against the spread pick: Oregon +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Michigan State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My best player prop bet: Jackson Shelstad Under 14.5 points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Exact score prediction: Michigan State 77, Oregon 74 (+18000 via DraftKings)

👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!

🏀 Oregon vs. Michigan State ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Here's why I'm betting on Oregon to cover the spread (+5.5) while targeting Jackson Shelstad Under 14.5 points as my best player prop bet pick for today:

✅ Oregon to cover the spread (+5.5) ⭐⭐⭐

Michigan State beat Michigan (twice), Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin all by nine-plus points amid its impressive winning streak.

But that is not to overlook Oregon's successful turnaround after dropping five straight conference games and falling to 5-8 in the league. The Ducks are 9-6 in Quad 1 games and have wins away from home against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Wisconsin.

Oregon easily bested Indiana 72-59 yesterday, and it was the Hoosiers’ best effective field-goal percentage they have allowed in a loss all season.

The Ducks exploded for 50 points in the first half in their road loss at Michigan State. While the Spartans made second-half adjustments, it is also not sustainable for Jase Richardson to match his 29-point total in what was his first start of the season.

Michigan State has covered five of its last six conference tournament games. But with it having little chance of improving to a No. 1 seed or falling below a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, I look for complacency to lead to a Ducks cover.

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)

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🔥 Jackson Shelstad Under 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstad has scored 17 or more points in three of the previous four games. But this five-star contrarian play has everything to do with Michigan State's adjustments on Shelstad in the first meeting.

Though Shelstad scored a team-high 22 points and was one of two Ducks players in double figures the first time they played the Spartans, he scored just four of his points in the second half.

Michigan State adjusted by having Jaden Akins guard Shelstad, and stopped the electric guard in his tracks. As a result, I expect Oregon will try to work inside more, especially since 7-foot Nate Bittle only had eight points in the first matchup.

📊 Best odds: -115 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8.70)

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🎯 Expert Oregon vs. Michigan State score prediction

🔮 Expert score prediction: Michigan State 77, Oregon 74

The Ducks have covered all five games at neutral sites this year and are 5-2 ATS as underdogs. That’s why I am predicting them to stay close with a final score of Michigan State 77, Oregon 74.

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📊 Live Oregon vs. Michigan State odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Oregon vs. Michigan State, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🔢 Oregon vs. Michigan State opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Oregon vs. Michigan State according to BetMGM.

Spread: Oregon +5.5 (-110) | Michigan State -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Oregon +195 | Michigan State -235
Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)

🏆 Who will win Oregon vs. Michigan State?

As of 9 p.m. ET on Thursday night, Michigan State is favored by 5.5 points to beat Oregon with moneyline odds of -235 at BetMGM, which suggest a 70.15% win probability for the Spartans. We're predicting a 77-74 win for Michigan State as our final score projection.

So far, 58% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Michigan State -5.5, while 58% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 143.5 points.

📺 How to watch Oregon vs. Michigan State today

📅 Date: Friday, March 14, 2025
🕗 Time: Noon ET
📍 Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Ind.)
📺 TV: BTN
💻 Streaming: Fubo/Sling TV

❓Oregon vs. Michigan State FAQs

Who's favored to win the Big Ten Conference tournament?

Michigan State (+270) is the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten Conference tournament.

Who is favored to win Oregon vs. Michigan State?

Michigan State is favored to beat Oregon. The Spartans are trading at -235 at our best sports betting apps, giving them a 70.15% implied win probability.

What are the betting odds for Oregon vs. Michigan State?

The latest spread is Michigan State -5.5 (-110) | Oregon +5.5 (-110), with a total of 143.5 points (-110).

What will be the final score of Oregon vs. Michigan State?

We're predicting a final score of Michigan State 77, Oregon 74 entering today’s matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

What time is Oregon vs. Michigan State today?

Tipoff for Oregon vs. Michigan State is slated for today at noon ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”