Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets
No. 10 seed Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) are one of a record 14 SEC teams dancing, and it opens its tournament run against No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5) at 3:15 p.m. ET (truTV) ttoday. We're breaking down the NCAA Tournament first-round matchup with our Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt predictions, odds, and preview.
The Gaels are anywhere from 3.5 to 4-point betting favorites to win this opening-round matchup at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, and we believe their size will pose all sorts of problems for the Commodores as part of our best March Madness predictions.
🏀 Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt prediction & picks today
Here are my best Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Saint Mary’s -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Vanderbilt ⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Tyler Nickel Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Saint Mary’s 70, Vanderbilt 65 (+16000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7
🔢 Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt updated betting action
- BetMGM bettors are taking a clear side, with Saint Mary's drawing 61% of the action on the spread at -4.5
- However, it's much more even on the total, with the Under on 135.5 getting 53% of the handle
- Saint Mary's opened as the -4.5 favorite before moving to -3.5, then back down to -4.5
🏆 Best Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Saint Mary’s to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Vanderbilt is one of the more up-tempo teams in the country, ranking in the 80th percentile in transition rate. But the Gaels are one of the best at thwarting opponents’ transition opportunities, ranking in the fourth percentile in transition rate allowed.
I expect Saint Mary’s to be successful in making this a half-court game, and it should impose its will with a distinct height advantage (the Gaels rank 30th in average height while the Commodores are 300th).
I am not worried that this line is down from an opening number of -4.5 and am backing the Gaels at the best number at BetMGM compared to several other best March Madness betting sites that are a half-point higher at -4.
📊 Best odds: -115 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.70)
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🔥 Tyler Nickel Over 1.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Commodores forward Tyler Nickel is a pick-and-pop specialist who has made multiple 3-pointers in five of the previous six games.
I would have looked long and hard about still backing this Over if it was set at 2.5, as Nickel has made at least one 3-pointer in 11 consecutive games, and 14 of 15.
If Vanderbilt wants to use its aggressive guards to attack off the dribble, it will likely have to pull the Saint Mary’s bigs away from the basket. Nickel is the Commodores’ best option to do just that.
These are great plus-money odds for a player that ranks fifth in SEC play with a 45.2% 3-point percentage.
📊 Best odds: +115 via BetMGM ($10 to win $11.50)
🎯 Score prediction: Saint Mary’s 70, Vanderbilt 65
Vanderbilt is better in the favorite role than as an underdog, going 12-6 ATS as a favorite while covering just six of 14 games as a ‘dog. That’s why I’m predicting a final score of Saint Mary’s 70, Vanderbilt 65.
📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1600)
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🤖 Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Saint Mary’s 68, Vanderbilt 63.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Saint Mary’s 68, Vanderbilt 63
- The Gaels' methodical defense will disrupt Vanderbilt’s offensive flow. Saint Mary's ability to control tempo and limit scoring opportunities should give it the upper hand, especially in a low-scoring affair
- Saint Mary’s is excellent at forcing turnovers and capitalizing on mistakes. If Vanderbilt struggles with ball security, the Gaels will turn those turnovers into easy points, tipping the scale in their favor
- While Vanderbilt has the ability to speed up the game, Saint Mary’s will control the tempo. The Gaels’ slow, deliberate style will wear down the Commodores, preventing them from finding a rhythm
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Saint Mary’s covering the spread (-3.5) and a total of Under 136.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt odds
Our updated Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt odds are via BetMGM.
Spread
Saint Mary's opened as the -4.5 favor early in the week before shifting to -3.5 for about a day starting on Monday. The line went back to -4.5 Tuesday around noon ET and has stayed there.
Total
The total opened at 135.5 before quickly jumping to 136.6. It went between those two numbers for the middle part of the week, and it's now at 135.5 again in the hours before tipoff.
Moneyline
There's been gradual moneyline movement since the opening lines. Saint Mary's started as the -190 favorite before shifting to -170, and then steadily back down to -210.
🔢 Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt opening odds
- Spread: Saint Mary's -4.5 (-110) | Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Saint Mary's -190 | Vanderbilt +160
- Over/Under: Over 135.5 (-110) | Under 135.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 East Region expert picks
- East Region betting preview
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- Oregon vs. Liberty prediction
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- Wisconsin vs. Montana prediction
- Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt prediction
- Alabama vs. Robert Morris prediction
📺 How to watch Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Rocket Arena (Cleveland)
📺 TV: truTV
💻 Streaming: Sling TV, March Madness Live
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