Stetson vs. UConn Best Bets, Picks: Back This Prop for Castle
It's a true David vs. Goliath on Friday when the Hatters take on the Huskies, and we're offering our Stetson vs. UConn best bets and expert picks based on the best March Madness odds.
The first-seed UConn Huskies are the favorites by our March Madness odds and Final Four odds after winning last year's NCAA Tournament. They're also massive 26.5-point favorites over the No. 16 Stetson Hatters in their 2024 NCAA Tournament opener.
The underdog Hatters secured their spot in the tournament by narrowly winning their last two games, with a combined margin of victory of just four points, marking the program's inaugural appearance in March Madness. However, their reward for these remarkable performances is a showdown against arguably the strongest team in the entire tournament.
Can the Hatters remain competitive against the Huskies, or will this be an easy first step in UConn's journey back to the Final Four?
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Stetson vs. UConn prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Stetson vs. UConn odds
Stetson (16) vs. UConn (1) best bet: East Region
Stephon Castle Over 11.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel
On paper, this profiles as an absolute blowout by the Huskies, though there's always the risk that the tournament's No. 1 overall seed lets its foot off the gas and rests up for Round 2. That's where Castle comes in.
The uber-talented freshman plays the second-fewest minutes per game (26.8) of any UConn starter, but he's averaging 10.8 points while clearing this scoring total in 14 of his 24 starts. He's also one of two NBA lottery hopefuls on this loaded roster alongside 7-2 sophomore Donovan Clingan.
This feels like an ideal showcase for the former top-10 recruit to boost his stock against a Stetson defense ranked 342nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. To put that in context, no other tournament team is ranked outside the top 210, and the Hatters have allowed 70-plus points in seven straight games and 23 of 31 games against Division-I opponents.
If this game gets out of hand early, we could see leading scorers Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer conserve their efforts for Round 2 or even get an early hook. Still, I'd suspect Castle will be given a longer leash to build confidence after a tough showing in the Big East Tournament.
Also, there's a reason the Over is juiced to at least -130 at four of our five best sportsbooks, even as FanDuel offers modest -102 odds. Those extreme prices elsewhere are a further endorsement of Castle's scoring upside on Friday.
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Stetson vs. UConn best odds
FanDuel (-104)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 11.5 | Over 11.5 | Over 11.5 | Over 11.5 | Over 11.5 |
| -130 | -104 | -135 | -141 | -130 |
The Over on this prop is dealing anywhere from -130 to -141 across four of our five best sports betting sites, but it's being offered at just -104 odds via FanDuel. That's the sort of value we're looking for when shopping around during March Madness, and it's what initially drew me to this prop in the first place.
I'd also highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see what bonus offers are available, especially with so many sportsbooks looking to attract new customers ahead of March Madness.
Stetson vs. UConn spread & Over/Under analysis
UConn opened as a 26.5-point favorite over Stetson, and we haven't seen that number move ahead of Friday's first-round matchup. Four of our five best sports betting apps are dealing -110 odds in both directions, though DraftKings is offering Stetson +26.5 (-108), so that's the place to go if you like the underdog Hatters to cover the massive number.
The total has seen a little more movement, opening at 144 before settling between 145.5 and 146 at four of our five best sportsbooks. That said, BetMGM is hanging a rogue 146.5, so Under bettors will want to take advantage of that market outlier while it still lasts.
Stetson vs. UConn game info
- When: Friday, March 22
- Tip-off: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
- How to watch: CBS
Stetson-UConn prediction made Wednesday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
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