Sweet 16 Picks & Final Four Predictions: Can Anyone Stop Duke and Cooper Flagg in NCAA Tournament?
There are just 16 teams alive in the NCAA Tournament and fewer games left to be played (15) than there were matchups on the first day of the first round (16).
We're making our Sweet 16 picks and Final Four predictions based on the March Madness odds, with 42 of the 68 teams already gone and just four set to be left after this upcoming weekend. More importantly, we're asking if anyone can stop Duke and Cooper Flagg.
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🔮 Sweet 16 picks & Final Four predictions: Can anyone stop Duke and Cooper Flagg?
🍬 Sweet 16 picks
| Matchup | Pick | Moneyline odds | Game details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (2) vs. BYU (6) | BYU | +185 via Caesars | Thursday, March 27 at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) |
| Florida (1) vs. Maryland (4) | Florida | -285 via FanDuel | Thursday, March 27 at 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) |
| Duke (1) vs. Arizona (4) | Duke | -450 via FanDuel | Thursday, March 27 at 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS) |
| Texas Tech (3) vs. Arkansas (10) | Texas Tech | -235 via Caesars | Thursday, March 27 at 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) |
| Michigan State (2) vs. Ole Miss (6) | Ole Miss | +150 via DraftKings | Friday, March 28 at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) |
| Tennessee (2) vs. Kentucky (3) | Tennessee | -184 via FanDuel | Friday, March 28 at 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) |
| Auburn (1) vs. Michigan (5) | Auburn | -385 via FanDuel | Friday, March 28 at 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS) |
| Houston (1) vs. Purdue (4) | Houston | -345 via FanDuel | Friday, March 28 at 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) |
🌵 Can Arizona upset Duke?
Without a doubt, Duke is the most talented team in the NCAA Tournament. This is one of the most loaded rosters in recent college basketball history, and Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg hasn't even had to wear a cape through the first two rounds of March Madness with the way his teammates have stepped up.
Veteran Tyrese Proctor is actually among the leaders of the March Madness stats for Duke, with the junior averaging 22 PPG through two games of the NCAA Tournament. With Proctor's lights out shooting from beyond the arc - he's 13-for-16 (81.2%) - and Flagg being the best two-way player in the country, Arizona could be in major trouble.
The Wildcats are a 9.5-point underdog at our March Madness betting sites and have longer moneyline odds (+390) to upset Duke than No. 10 seed Arkansas, the only double-digit seed left, has to beat No. 3 seed Texas Tech (+205).
Beyond the fact that Duke has a roster full of future NBA players, including the NBA draft odds favorite to go No. 1, the Blue Devils are also taking on an Arizona team that's been all over the place this season. The Wildcats have never advanced past the Sweet 16 under head coach Tommy Lloyd, and it's not going to happen against the Blue Devils.
Duke already scored a 69-55 win over Arizona on Nov. 22, a game in which Flagg dropped 24 points. Don't expect a reversal of fortune this time around.
📊 Duke's odds to beat Arizona in the Sweet 16: -450 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 81.82%
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👉 Want more Sweet 16 action? Check out our March Madness Sweet 16 survivor picks, our latest March Madness odds, and our March Madness second-chance brackets.
🎟️ Elite Eight predictions
| Projected matchup | Pick | Odds to win region | Game details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn (1) vs. Ole Miss (6) | Auburn | -135 via DraftKings (South) | Saturday, March 29/Sunday March 30 |
| Florida (1) vs. Texas Tech (3) | Texas Tech | +320 via DraftKings (West) | Saturday, March 29/Sunday March 30 |
| Duke (1) vs. BYU (6) | Duke | -185 via FanDuel (West) | Saturday, March 29/Sunday March 30 |
| Houston (1) vs. Tennessee (2) | Houston | -110 via FanDuel (Midwest) | Saturday, March 29/Sunday March 30 |
😈 Does either Alabama or BYU stand a chance against Duke?
Assuming Duke beats Arizona, it will take on the winner of Alabama vs. BYU, which might look more like a mid-2000s Big 12 football game than a basketball game with how little defense is going to be played in that matchup.
Regardless of who wins, Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer won't have to change his game plan much with both the Crimson Tide and the Cougars playing an offensive-minded brand of basketball. They're also arguably the two worst defensive teams in the Sweet 16, which is a big reason why Duke has the shortest Final Four odds.
Duke can have a field day against either with an offense that ranks No. 1 in the country in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, behind the play of Flagg, Proctor, and Kon Knueppel. That trio is all averaging in the double digits this season, and all three of them are hitting better than 45% from the floor and 36% from three.
While Alabama has Mark Sears and Grant Nelson, and BYU has Richie Saunders and Egor Demin, I think Knueppel will be pretty clearly the second-most talented scorer taking the court after Flagg. The freshman will be the X-factor in Duke beating either the Crimson Tide or Cougars with his productivity as a shooter.
Knueppel is the sixth-highest rated player in the country by EvanMiya's BPR metric and a future top-10 pick. He would be the best player on 99% of teams in college basketball, so the fact that Duke has him playing Robin to Flagg's Batman is the reason neither Alabama nor BYU should beat the Blue Devils.
📊 Duke's odds to win East region: -185 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 64.91%
4️⃣ Final Four predictions
| Projected matchup | Pick | Odds to reach championship | Game details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke (1) vs. Houston (1) | Duke | +125 via FanDuel | Saturday, April 5 at 6:09 p.m./8:49 p.m. ET (CBS) |
| Auburn (1) vs. Texas Tech (3) | Auburn | +200 via FanDuel | Saturday, April 5 at 6:09 p.m./8:49 p.m. ET (CBS) |
🌽 Who from the Midwest region can end Duke's Final Four run?
The Midwest region looks like the toughest to survive with Houston and Tennessee having arguably the two best defenses in the nation and Purdue and Kentucky having potent offenses led by talented veteran guards. So who will Duke play if it reaches the Final Four? I have a hard time seeing anyone taking down Houston.
The Cougars have been the second-best team in the country as of late after the Blue Devils, and a Duke vs. Houston matchup in the Final Four would be an all-timer. I think of any team left in the NCAA Tournament, Houston's the one that does have a shot at taking down Duke.
If it's Tennessee, the Volunteers don't have the shooting to keep up with the Blue Devils. If it's Purdue, Flagg and Knueppel can cook the Boilermakers' lackluster defense. If it's Kentucky, fellow freshman and likely lottery pick Khaman Maluach can own the paint - although the Wildcats did beat the Blue Devils early in the season.
But if it's Houston, the Cougars have the shooters (LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp), the paint presence (J'Wan Roberts), the quarterback (Milos Uzan), and the defenders (JoJo Tugler, Terrance Arceneaux) to potentially pull off the upset.
However, I don't think Houston has the singular offensive threat it needs to go toe-to-toe with Flagg and this Duke team. The Blue Devils have a versatile scorer in Flagg who can take over a game, but that's something the Cougars lack.
These are two monstrous defenses, and I think Flagg's ability to completely take over a game on the offensive end would end up being the difference with the Blue Devils punching their ticket to the championship game.
📊 Duke's odds to win reach national championship: +125 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.44%
🏆 March Madness winner prediction
| Projected matchup | Pick | March Madness odds | Game details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn (1) vs. Duke (1) | Duke | +230 via bet365 | Monday, April 7 at 8:50 p.m. ET (CBS) |
🌞 Can any team from the South or West region beat Duke in the national championship?
From the other side of the bracket, there are eight teams from the South and West regions vying for a spot in the national championship. Four of those teams hail from the SEC, which set the record for most teams selected to a single NCAA Tournament (14) and most teams to reach the Sweet 16 (seven).
For as impressive as teams like Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland, and Texas Tech have been this year, it's hard to imagine that Duke doesn't end up playing an SEC program in the national title game. With No. 6 seed Ole Miss and No. 10 seed Arkansas being the worst teams on paper from across the bracket, that leaves fellow No. 1 seeds Auburn and Florida.
There's a chance neither of them will make the championship, or even the Final Four, but it's safe to say they're the best bets to reach this stage and the only two programs from that side of the bracket that really have a shot at dethroning Duke. But can either of them do it?
To be honest, I don't think Auburn can ... we already saw the Tigers drop a game this year to the Blue Devils when Flagg went for 22 points and 11 rebounds. Even with Broome putting up 20 and 12 in that game, the Tigers lost by six.
Auburn also is playing some of its worst basketball of the season as of late, and we saw Broome struggle against an NBA big man in Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner, so Maluach could pose issues for him too. And while I have Auburn reaching the championship and losing to Duke, Florida is a tougher matchup for the Blue Devils.
Florida is second in adjusted offensive efficiency behind Duke and has one of the best scorers in the nation in Walter Clayton Jr. If Clayton can put together an all-time outing and Alex Condon can own the paint, then there's definitely a path to Florida taking down Duke for the title.
Still, Duke was my pick to win it all with my initial March Madness bracket reaction, and the Blue Devils have given me no reason to second guess it.
📊 Duke's odds to win March Madness: +230 via bet365 | Implied probability: 30.30%
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🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Alabama vs. BYU prediction
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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