Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction Tonight: Best Picks, Odds & Preview for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
The No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers (29-7) take on the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (24-11) in an all-SEC matchup during tonight's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. Tipoff is set for 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Our Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction, odds, and preview, part of our March Madness predictions, looks into whether the underdog can make it three in a row against its conference rival. The Volunteers are 4.5-point betting favorites at our best sports betting sites to advance in the Midwest Region of the March Madness bracket, despite losing by a combined 16 points to the Wildcats in two regular season meetings.
🔢 Tennessee vs. Kentucky updated betting action
Updated betting information via BetMGM for tonight's Sweet 16 game.
- 58% of the bets and 55% of the handle is on Kentucky (+4.5) to cover
- 85% of the bets and 53% of the handle is on the Over (144.5)
- Moneyline odds of Tennessee (-210) and Kentucky (+170) remain unchanged from opening lines
🏀 Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction & picks for today
Here are my best Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Kentucky +4.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Tennessee ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Otega Oweh Under 16.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Kentucky 74, Tennessee 70 (+33000 via FanDuel)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions.
🏆 Best Tennessee vs. Kentucky pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Kentucky to cover the spread: +4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite being one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with top 20 adjusted efficiencies on offense and defense, Tennessee has fallen victim twice this season to Kentucky’s scoring prowess.
The Wildcats are 2-0 against the Vols, scoring 75+ points in both wins. To make it a three-peat against Rocky Top would land Kentucky in the Elite Eight in Mark Pope’s first season in Lexington.
Typically, I would be concerned about betting on a team with Kentucky’s profile this deep into March Madness. The Wildcats fall outside the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the closer you get to the Final Four, the more important it is to be strong on both ends of the floor.
But the Cats have already solved Tennessee’s stout defense twice on the year, and with the way its scorers are trending, I like Kentucky to cover in a game I have pegged as a coin flip on the outright winner.
📊 Best odds: -115 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.70)
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🔥 Otega Oweh Under 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While we’re fond of the Wildcats on the spread and potentially even winning the game outright, nothing in the profile of their previous two head-to-heads suggests a massive scoring output from Oweh.
Although Oweh cleared a 16.5-point total in Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament opener against Troy, scoring 20, he fell short against Illinois, scoring 15 points. Twice against Tennessee this season, the Vols made other guys beat them, with Oweh chipping in 13 and 14 points.
That Kentucky scored 75+ points in both games shows it doesn’t need an outlier scoring effort from Oweh to compete. The Vols will likely focus on limiting his production, placing the -120 odds on Oweh Under 16.5 points in our crosshairs. Of our best March Madness betting sites, BetMGM is the place to go for this prop.
📊 Best odds: -120 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.33)
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🎯 Score prediction: Kentucky 74, Tennessee 70
It’s hard to beat a good team three times in one season, but Kentucky has shown it knows how to get the job done.
Kentucky averages 85.0 PPG and has cracked the Tennessee defense twice this year. In essence, I’m banking on the Wildcats to get into their tempo, again scoring in the 70s, where they would have an advantage.
Kentucky will have to improve its free-throw-shooting efforts, which were below 70% in each of their first two games. But as a 73% free-throw-shooting team on the year, I trust those numbers to normalize.
📊 Best odds: +33000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $3,300)
🤖 Tennessee vs. Kentucky AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Tennessee vs. Kentucky. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Tennessee 72, Kentucky 68.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Tennessee 72, Kentucky 68
- Tennessee's perimeter defense will be crucial: The Vols rank among the nation’s top 15 in defensive efficiency, particularly in guarding the 3-point line. With Kentucky missing key perimeter players (Robinson and Kriisa), expect Tennessee to limit outside scoring.
- Zakai Zeigler’s playmaking X-factor: Zeigler’s recent 12-assist, 0-turnover performance highlights his elite ball distribution. His ability to create open looks and control the tempo gives Tennessee an edge.
- Kentucky's frontcourt could pose problems: Despite their guard injuries, Kentucky’s rebounding advantage (top 10 in offensive boards per game) should keep them competitive. They’ll rely heavily on inside scoring to offset their limited backcourt depth.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Tennessee covering the spread (-3.5) at some sportsbooks, with Kentucky covering +4.5 at others. The total would go Under 144.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Sweet 16.
There hasn't been much movement on the spread or moneyline odds since they first opened ahead of tonight's Tennessee vs. Kentucky clash. However, the total has gone down two points at our best live betting sites. But with juiced -115 odds on Over 144.5, another shift could come in the hours leading up to tipoff.
🔢 Tennessee vs. Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -4.5 (-110) | Kentucky +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -170 | Kentucky +210
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Kentucky: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
📅 Date: Friday, March 28
🕗 Time: 7:39 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
📺 TV: TBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan prediction
- Houston vs. Purdue prediction
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