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UConn vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Today's Preview: Women's March Madness Best Bets

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 22, 2025 9:58 AM EDT • 4 min 34 sec read.

UConn vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Today's Preview: Women's March Madness Best Bets
Pictured: UConn Huskies guard Paige Bueckers (5) drives the ball. Photo by David Butler II-Imagn Images.

The No. 2 seed UConn Huskies (31-3) open their March Madness tournament against the No. 15 seed Arkansas State Red Wolves (21-10) today at 1 p.m. ET (ABC) at Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Conn., and we're making our UConn vs. Arkansas State prediction, odds, and preview as part of our women's March Madness predictions.

The Huskies are 45.5-point betting favorites to advance in the Spokane 4 Region of the women's March Madness bracket.

I discuss whether the Huskies, receiving the second-shortest women's March Madness odds, can cover this massive spread.

🏀 UConn vs. Arkansas State prediction & picks today

Here are my best UConn vs. Arkansas State predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Arkansas State +45.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. UConn ⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Paige Bueckers Under 20.5 points (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: UConn 86, Arkansas State 52

👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our college basketball picks for both the men's and women's NCAA tournament.

🏆 Best UConn vs. Arkansas State pick, player prop bet & score prediction

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Arkansas State to cover the spread: +45.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Picking against the Huskies feels wrong, but 45.5 points is a behemoth spread. Yes, the Huskies have won four games by at least 46 points this season, and they’ve also come close to covering this spread in other games, such as when they beat the Villanova Wildcats by 43 and the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights by 44.

The Red Wolves have lost to every team you’d expect, but their largest defeat came by just 16 points against the Arkansas Razorbacks. While I firmly believe they’ll lose this game by more than 30, they’ve remained competitive in every game they’ve played.

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This spread sits at either 44.5 or 45.5 across our best sportsbooks. Because the Huskies could steamroll the Red Wolves, I’ll take the largest number available if the price is better than -115. As of Thursday morning, FanDuel is offering the same price as DraftKings but giving an additional point buffer. 

📊 Best odds: -110 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.09)

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🔥 Paige Bueckers Under 20.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Bueckers leads the Huskies with 19.0 points per game. With her total set just 1.5 points above her season average in such a favorable matchup, her Over may seem like a lock to many.

While Bueckers enters the game with three consecutive 20-point performances, I expect her to score below her posted total.

To get to her average of 19.0 points per game, Bueckers hasn’t stat padded. The Huskies won 19 games by at least 30 points this season. Bueckers scored 20 or fewer points in 12 of those contests while playing in 17 of them. With the game comfortably in hand somewhat early, I expect her to see limited minutes to rest up for the second round.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering this prop. It may be worth waiting until closer to tipoff to see if you can get Under 21.5 for -105 or something similar, as the public should love Bueckers in this game.

I dive further into Bueckers' upcoming game with my Paige Bueckers odds and player prop bets.

📊 Best odds: -112 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.93)

🎯 Exact score prediction: UConn 86, Arkansas State 52

Due to the incredibly large spread, no exact score props are being offered at any of the major sportsbooks. However, with a projected total of 148.5 and a spread of 45.5, oddsmakers are suggesting a final score of around 97-52. I think the game will be much closer than that.

While the Huskies could easily score over 100 points, once this game gets out of hand, they will start looking ahead to the second round. That means the fourth quarter will be lower scoring, ultimately preventing them from covering the spread.

📊 Best odds: OFF 

🤖 UConn vs. Arkansas State AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for UConn vs. Arkansas State. Our AI prediction projects a final score of UConn 82, Arkansas State 60.

🖥️ AI score prediction: UConn 82, Arkansas State 60

  • UConn typically excels in all aspects of the game: defense, ball movement, and shooting efficiency. Their transition play can be deadly, and they are especially strong in the paint.
  • Arkansas State will likely focus on slowing down the game, playing solid defense, and attempting to capitalize on UConn's mistakes.
  • As for the exact score, given the disparity in talent, it’s likely that UConn will win comfortably but not by an overwhelming margin, as Arkansas State will likely make some efforts to slow down the game and make it competitive for stretches.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Arkansas State covering the spread (+45.5) and a total of Under 148.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live UConn vs. Arkansas State odds

Follow the latest women's March Madness odds for the NCAA Tournament.

🔢 UConn vs. Arkansas State opening odds

  • Spread: UConn -43.5 (-110) | Arkansas State +43.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: UConn OFF | Arkansas State OFF
  • Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110)

📺 How to watch UConn vs. Arkansas State: Women's March Madness

📅 Date: Saturday, March 22
🕗 Time: 1 p.m. ET
📍 Location:  Gampel Pavilion (Storrs, Conn.)
📺 TV: ABC
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live

Today's best women's March Madness picks

Here are our other women's March Madness picks for today's first-round games:

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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Women's March Madness oddsMarch Madness MVP predictions
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👑 Best March Madness betting sites

Ready to place your March Madness bets? Check out the best March Madness betting promos from the best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.