UConn vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament First Round
In a few hours, we get to see how the defending champion No. 8 seed UConn Huskies (23-10) will perform amidst doubts about their ability to enjoy another deep, fruitful March Madness run.
They face the No. 9 seed Oklahoma Sooners (20-13) tonight at 9:25 p.m. ET (TNT) from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., where we expect a close game in the NCAA Tournament first-round battle.
UConn is a 5.5-point betting favorite over Oklahoma, an unusual spread for a No. 8 versus No. 9 matchup, so how will this game pan out and can the Sooners prevent the Huskies from advancing in the West Region March Madness bracket?
Our UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction, part of the March Madness predictions, investigates.
🏀 UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction & picks today
Here are my best UConn vs. Oklahoma predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Oklahoma +5.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. UConn ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Solo Ball under 15.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: UConn 74, Oklahoma 72 (+14000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🔢 UConn vs. Oklahoma updated betting action
- UConn opened as a -4.5 favorite, and after spending most of the week at -5.5, the spread has jumped to 6.5 points on Friday afternoon. It's back down to 5.5 points as of Friday evening
- 55% of bets are on the favorite
- 55% of the best are on the Over (147.5)
🏆 Best UConn vs. Oklahoma pick, player prop bet & score prediction
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Oklahoma to cover the spread: +5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This year’s Huskies aren’t like last year’s. Instead of dominating the college basketball landscape, they’re limping into the Big Dance after falling to Creighton in the Big East tournament semifinals. Their outside March Madness odds are evidence of the recent struggles. Since Feb. 1, UConn is 8-4 and is only 36th in T-Rank. The offense is top-25 in adjusted efficiency, but the defense is outside the top 75.
The Huskies are 347th in turnovers and 341st in turnovers forced.
To be fair, Oklahoma isn’t that good, either. The Sooners are 49th in T-Rank and neither their offense nor defense sports a top-25 rank in adjusted efficiency. However, all but two of Oklahoma’s games in that sample came against tricky SEC competition, while UConn’s struggles came against weaker Big East competition.
In UConn’s defense, they cleared Texas earlier in the season, but I remain deeply skeptical of their odds of defending the title.
UConn’s dominant last two seasons mean the market is slightly overvaluing them. That’s been true most of the season—UConn is 14-18-1 ATS on the year, 10-15-1 ATS as a favorite, and 2-4 ATS in neutral-site games. Oklahoma's 18-15 ATS record is solid enough, and getting them plus 5.5 points is too good to pass up.
📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Solo Ball under 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UConn’s leading scorer, sophomore Solo Ball, is averaging just 14.6 points per game this year. He has shot an efficient 44.4% from the field—and 42.2% from beyond the arc—both of which mark significant year-over-year improvements.
The problem with lower-volume, higher-efficiency guys is that shooting variance gains more significance, which can open up some value on their player prop unders.
Ball was a reserve for the Huskies last year, so these will be his first meaningful minutes in the Big Dance. The added pressure could cause some problems for him, and since his scoring average hinges on efficiency, taking him to stay under 15.5 total points stands out as a top UConn vs. Oklahoma player prop bet. Of our best sportsbooks, BetMGM offers the longest odds.
📊 Best odds: -125 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8)
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🎯 Score prediction: UConn 74, Oklahoma 72
The total for this game is trading at 147.5, so we’re going a few points over that number to lock in this exact score prediction. We’ve also got Oklahoma covering the 5.5-point spread in the process.
There are many ways to take advantage of the market overrating the repeat champs, and while the spread is my market of choice, getting some action down on some long-shot exact score wagers can spice things up.
📊 Best odds: +14000 DraftKings ($10 to win $1,400)
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🤖 UConn vs. Oklahoma AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for UConn vs. Oklahoma. Our AI prediction projects a final score of UConn 76, Oklahoma 72.
🖥️ AI score prediction: UConn 76, Oklahoma 72
- UConn's experience in the NCAA Tournament, having secured back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024, provides them with a psychological advantage and familiarity with high-pressure games.
- Oklahoma's freshman guard, Jeremiah Fears, has been on a scoring surge, averaging 22.6 points over the last eight games, which could pose a significant challenge to UConn's defense.
- UConn's offensive efficiency and ability to limit turnovers positions them well against Oklahoma, which has struggled with defensive consistency this season.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean UConn covering the spread (-4.5) and a total of 148 points, slightly exceeding the over/under line of 147.5. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live UConn vs. Oklahoma odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
Latest UConn vs. Oklahoma odds
Our updated UConn vs. Oklahoma odds are via BetMGM.
Spread
- The Huskies are 5.5-point betting favorites (-115). Those -115 odds carry an implied probability of 53.49%.
- Oklahoma (+5.5) is juiced at -105, implying a 51.22% probability.
Total
- The UConn-Oklahoma betting total is at 147.5 points. The Over is juiced to -115 and the Under (-105).
Moneyline
- UConn is the -200 favorites (66.67%), and Oklahoma is the +165 underdog (37.74%).
🔢 UConn vs. Oklahoma opening odds
- Spread: UConn -4.5 (-110) | Oklahoma +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UConn -190 | Oklahoma +158
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
🔮 West Region expert picks
- West Region betting preview
- Florida vs. Norfolk State prediction
- UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction
- Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction
- Maryland prediction Grand Canyon prediction
- Drake vs. Missouri prediction
- Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction
- Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction
- St. John's vs. Omaha prediction
📺 How to watch UConn vs. Oklahoma: NCAA Tournament first round
📅 Date: Friday, March 21
🕗 Time: 9:25 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, N.C.)
📺 TV: TNT
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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