UNC vs. Duke Prediction, Odds & Score Picks: ACC Semifinal Best Bets
With Cooper Flagg considered unlikely to play on Friday against North Carolina, Duke could struggle to find the same level of motivation as a Tar Heels team that could see its bubble burst without adding a signature win in Charlotte to its resume.
Our UNC vs. Duke prediction, odds, and expert picks for this ACC semifinal sees North Carolina leveling the playing surface as Duke scrambles to overcome the loss of Flagg in a game that it doesn’t necessarily need to win.
UNC faces Duke in the ACC semifinal at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
💰 UNC vs. Duke predictions, expert picks & best bets: ACC semifinal
Here are my best UNC vs. Duke predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for ACC semifinal with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: UNC +7.5 (-104 via FanDuel) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: Ven-Allen Lubin 8+ rebounds (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Exact score prediction: Duke 78, UNC 74 (+26000 via FanDuel)
👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!
🏀 UNC vs. Duke ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick
Here's why I'm betting on UNC to cover the spread (+7.5) while targeting Ven-Allen Lubin 8+ rebounds as my best player prop bet pick for today:
✅ UNC to cover the spread (+7.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jon Scheyer uttered the phrase “it’s not worth it,” during his postgame presser Thursday regarding Flagg potentially playing through his ankle injury against UNC on Friday. The Duke head coach explained that would be a “long shot” for Flagg to suit up against the Tar Heels.
Aside from the obvious rivalry implications, the game is rather meaningless for the Blue Devils in the big picture of their NCAA Tournament dreams. But for a UNC team squarely on the bubble, this game could represent the opportunity to bag a signature win while the committee is still paying attention.
An absent or limited Flagg combined with the Tar Heels carrying far more incentive than Duke to max out for this matchup could be the recipe that UNC needs. Even if North Carolina can’t get over the hump outright, a Tar Heels group that has notched its last seven wins by nine-plus points should score enough to keep within the number.
📊 Best odds: -104 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.62)
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🔥 Ven-Allen Lubin 8+ rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNC forward Ven-Allen Lubin has been a force on the glass during this ACC tournament, registering double-digit rebounds in consecutive games for the first time all season. We’re taking Lubin to keep up his rebounding emphasis on Friday, particularly considering the probable absence for Flagg on the other side.
Lubin logged only six rebounds in each game against Duke so far on the season, but given his 23 rebounds over the past two contests in Charlotte, we’re banking on this being an invigorated aspect of his game.
These two tournament games have also been Lubin’s first time all year playing 26-plus minutes in back-to-back contests, so his hard work meeting increased opportunity should result in another strong game on the boards Friday.
📊 Best odds: +125 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $12.50)
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🎯 Expert UNC vs. Duke score prediction
🔮 Expert score prediction: Duke 78, UNC 74
North Carolina held consecutive opponents below 60 points in its first two rounds of the ACC tournament, demonstrating renewed vigor on that end of the floor compared to earlier in the season.
But holding Duke’s 10th-ranked scoring offense in the nation that low seems implausible even without Flagg, especially considering the Tar Heels will likely push the pace (34th in adjusted tempo) to contribute to a higher scoring environment.
UNC stays competitive and keeps Duke below its season average for points, but in the end, the Tar Heels fall narrowly short of scoring the type of win they could earnestly use to impress the tournament committee.
📊 Best odds: +26000 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $2,600)
📊 Live UNC vs. Duke odds & latest betting splits
Here are the latest odds for UNC vs. Duke, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
🔢 UNC vs. Duke opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for UNC vs. Duke according to BetMGM.
- Spread: UNC +7.5 (-115) | Duke -7.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: UNC +240 | Duke -300
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)
🏆 Who will win UNC vs. Duke?
As of Friday morning, Duke is favored by 7.5 points to beat UNC with moneyline odds of -325 at BetMGM, which suggest a 76.47% win probability for the Blue Devils. We're predicting a 78-74 win for Duke as our final score projection.
So far, 67% of bettors have wagered against the spread on UNC +7.5, while 48% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 155.5 points.
📺 How to watch UNC vs. Duke tonight
📅 Date: Friday, March 14
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, N.C.)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN App
❓ UNC vs. Duke FAQs
Who's favored to win the ACC tournament?
Duke is favored to win the ACC tournament with -110 odds from FanDuel.
Who is favored to win UNC vs. Duke?
Duke is favored to win with -325 odds on the moneyline at BetMGM, which suggest a 76.47% win probability for the Blue Devils.
What are the betting odds for UNC vs. Duke?
The latest spread is UNC +7.5 (-104) | Duke -7.5 (-110), with a total of 155.5 points (-110).
What will be the final score of UNC vs. Duke?
We're predicting a final score of Duke 78, UNC 74 entering tonight's matchup at Spectrum Center.
What time is UNC vs. Duke tonight?
Tipoff is scheduled for tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites
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