Vermont vs. Duke Player Props & March Madness Odds: Catamounts Stomp Roach
The No. 13 Vermont Catamounts clash with the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, as we offer our top Vermont vs. Duke player props and prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
Despite boasting a 24-8 record, Head Coach Jon Scheyer's second season leading the Duke Blue Devils has been somewhat underwhelming. They suffered losses to North Carolina twice and were unexpectedly upset by NC State in the ACC Tournament despite being considered one of the favorites. The Blue Devils are favored by 11.5 points at our best sports betting sites, but they'll need to perform at their best to cover against the Vermont Catamounts.
The Catamounts pose a significant challenge for opponents, especially for an inconsistent Duke team. Ranked among the top mid-major teams in the nation and equipped with the America East Tournament title, John Becker's squad is positioned to potentially embark on a Cinderella story in the NCAA Tournament.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Vermont vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Vermont vs. Duke odds
Vermont (13) vs. Duke (4) prediction: South Region
Jeremy Roach Under 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365
Its a long shot for Vermont to win this game - the moneyline is between +460 and +575 across our best sports betting apps - but that doesn't mean the Catamounts won't make Duke earn this win. Vermont's defense doesn't mess around, holding teams to the ninth fewest points per game in the country (63.0) and ranking 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
While the Catamounts' lack of size on defense is a concern for dealing with All-ACC big man Kyle Filipowski, Becker's team is built to slow down Duke's guards. Vermont has six of the 20 highest-rated players in DBPR in the America East, per EvanMiya, with Shamir Bogues and TJ Long capable of smothering even the most talented guards in the NCAA Tournament.
Those two will give Duke's Jeremy Roach all sorts of challenges. Both are 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, while Roach is just 6-foot-1, 175. Beyond the size mismatch, Vermont ranks top 45 in the country in field goal percentage (40.6%), 2-point percentage (45.7%), and 3-point percentage allowed (31.4%). The Catamounts' defense is giving up only 6.6 made 3-pointers per game and should be capable of limiting Roach's looks on the perimeter.
Despite the Duke senior being named All-ACC this season, he's averaging only 14 points per game and is less of a lead scorer and more of a quarterback who sets up others. Roach has scored fewer than 14 points in three of his last four games, and with Filipowski's size mismatch, he may be better off feeding his big man.
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Vermont vs. Duke best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roach Under 13.5 points | Roach Under 12.5 points | N/A | N/A | Roach Under 13.5 points |
| -110 | -104 | N/A | N/A | -110 |
Three of our best sports betting apps are offering player props on Vermont's matchup with Duke at the time of writing. Both DraftKings and bet365 are offering the same Roach prop while FanDuel has slightly longer odds at the cost of one less point. We're going to play it safe and take the -110 odds, which imply a 52.38% probability that Roach scores fewer than 13.5 points.
The difference in value on this price isn't massive with a $10 bet at -110 still leading to a $9.09 profit. It's worth taking shorter odds for that one extra point to play with given Duke's talent level compared to Vermont's, even with its suffocating defense.
Vermont vs. Duke spread & Over/Under analysis
Duke opened as a double-digit favorite over Vermont at our best live betting sites with the spread shifting in the Blue Devils' direction. Scheyer's squad was initially -10.5 with most books coming up to -11.5, and it could move to -12.5 by tip-off. The Blue Devils are 18-13-1 ATS this season while the Catamounts are just 14-18 ATS and have failed to cover in four straight games.
With both Duke and Vermont playing feisty defense, the game total opened at just 131.5. It's since come up to 132.5 at our best sportsbooks and it will likely move another point or two by Friday night. The Catamounts are one of the best Under teams in the country, going 23-9 for Under bettors. The Blue Devils aren't too shabby either at 19-13 to the Under.
Vermont vs. Duke game info
- When: Friday, March 22
- Tip-off: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
- How to watch: CBS
Vermont-Duke prediction made Monday at 5:25 p.m. ET.
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