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Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Our Best Bets for Today

Mike Spector

Last Updated: February 22, 2025 12:12 PM EST • 4 min 42 sec read.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Feb. 22
Pictured: North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) and teammates react. Photo by Bob Donnan via Imagn Images.

The North Carolina Tar Heels look to add to their NCAA Tournament resume when they host the Virginia Cavaliers from the Dean E. Smith Center this afternoon. Tip-off from Chapel Hill, N.C., is set for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2).

Our Virginia vs. North Carolina prediction and odds believe North Carolina should be plenty motivated to earn a statement victory. Our best March Madness betting sites seem to agree, listing the Tar Heels as 9.5-point home favorites.

North Carolina enters this game at 16-11 (9-6 in the ACC), and some bracketologists think it will take the Tar Heels winning all five of their remaining regular season games to feel safe about securing an invite to March Madness. We believe one star will help carry the hosts to victory today.

Virginia vs. North Carolina predictions, expert picks & best bets today

Here are my best Virginia vs. North Carolina predictions, expert picks, and best bets tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

  • Against the spread pick: North Carolina -9.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: RJ Davis Over 15.5 points (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Virginia vs. North Carolina ATS pick & score prediction

North Carolina is just 3-11-1 ATS in conference games this season. However, the Tar Heels just snapped a nine-game coverless streak and they are worthy of a two-star play. I'm predicting North Carolina will cover the spread (-9.5).

🏀 North Carolina to cover the spread: -9.5 ⭐⭐

This rivalry is always a fascinating clash of styles as North Carolina plays at the fastest pace in the ACC (24th-fastest nationally), while Virginia plays at the third-slowest pace among all D-I teams.

I believe in the theory that it is easier to slow a team down than to speed it up. However, Virginia is not playing the rock-solid defense it was known for under Tony Bennett to be able to survive, even if it makes this game a half-court grind.

The Cavaliers rank 14th or worse in conference play defensively in field goal percentage allowed, effective field goal percentage, and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels have the sixth-most scoring droughts of all top 50 teams in the country, per Evan Miyakawa. However, UNC’s offense has been humming with 92.5 PPG in the last two and 97-plus points in two of three at home.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites where one can back the Tar Heels at better than -108 juice. I would not put anyone off waiting to see if the line ever drops to -9 or lower, though, considering no books are listing -9.5 at worse than standard juice.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.52)

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Best Virginia vs. North Carolina player prop bet

Here is my best Virginia vs. North Carolina player prop bet tonight. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

💰 RJ Davis Over 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

RJ Davis has scored 16 or more points in eight of the last nine games, and he is coming off his first 20-point performance of the month. Davis’ scoring potential blossoms when he gets to the free throw line, something he has done six-plus times in back-to-back games. 

I expect him to get to the charity stripe often against a Cavaliers defense that ranks outside the top 10 in league play in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This number is manageable because Davis scored just 12 points on 1-for-14 shooting from the field last year against Virginia.

Thus far, this Cavaliers defense looks nothing like what it did under Bennett with first-year coach Ron Sanchez at the helm. This is a three-star play, as Davis ranks fourth on the all-time ACC scoring list, and needs 28 points to pass Dickie Hemric of Wake Forest for third place.

I  am comfortable paying up for the -125 odds at bet365 given the O/U is one point lower than those found at our other best sportsbooks.

Best odds: -125 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8)

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Virginia vs. North Carolina AI prediction

We asked ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI, to offer its best AI prediction for Virginia vs. North Carolina today - including its pick to win and exact score prediction. ChatGPT is a large language model and is not specifically designed for sports betting predictions.

🤖 AI score prediction: North Carolina 77, Virginia 68

The prediction for today's game between North Carolina and Virginia is that North Carolina is favored to win, with analysts expecting a score around 77-68.

North Carolina has a slight edge, but both teams have struggled defensively, so the game could still be competitive.

📊 Live Virginia vs. North Carolina odds

Here are the latest odds for Virginia vs. North Carolina, which update in real time. You can also check out the rest of our NCAAB scores as they happen.

🔢 Virginia vs. North Carolina opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Virginia vs. North Carolina according to BetMGM.

  • Spread: Virginia +9.5 (-110) | North Carolina -9.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 142.5 (-115) | Under 142.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Virginia +340 | North Carolina -450

📺 How to watch Virginia vs. North Carolina tonight

📅 Date: Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025
🕗 Time: 4 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Dean E. Smith Center (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
📺 TV: ESPN2
💻 Streaming: ESPN+

❓ Virginia vs. North Carolina FAQs

Who is favored to win Virginia vs. North Carolina?

North Carolina is a -476 favorite at Caesars, giving the hosts an implied probability of 82.64%.

What are the odds for Virginia vs. North Carolina?

The Tar Heels are 9.5-point home favorites with the total set at 140.5 for the ACC clash.

What time is Virginia vs. North Carolina today?

Virginia vs. North Carolina tips off at 4 p.m. ET today on ESPN2.

📈 College basketball betting odds pages

March Madness oddsMarch Madness MVP odds
Wooden Award oddsMarch Madness MVP predictions
Final Four oddsMarch Madness prop bets

🏀 Best college basketball betting sites

Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”