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Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: Best Bets & Projections

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 2, 2025 9:09 AM EST • 4 min 17 sec read.

We offer our best Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions.
Pictured: Wisconsin Badgers guard Kamari McGee talks to an official during a game against the Purdue Boilermakers. Photo by Alex Martin / Journal and Courier via Imagn Images.

This pivotal Big Ten clash between the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan State Spartans is one of only two games this weekend that pits two teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP poll against one another.

Michigan State controls its own destiny for a Big Ten regular-season championship after winning four straight games and five of its last six.

Our Wisconsin vs. Michigan State prediction and odds takes into account the fact that the Spartans are 4.5-point home favorites at Breslin Center for this 1:30 p.m. ET (CBS) contest.

💰 Wisconsin vs. Michigan State predictions, expert picks & best bets today

Here are my best Wisconsin vs. Michigan State predictions, expert picks, and best bets today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

  • Against the spread pick: Wisconsin +4.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Michigan State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best player prop bet: John Tonje Under 2.5 3-pointers made (-145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Exact score prediction: Michigan State 78, Wisconsin 77 (+18000 via DraftKings) ⭐

🏀 Wisconsin vs. Michigan State ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Wisconsin has been a cover machine this season, going 13-4 ATS in its first 17 Big Ten games. That is why I am predicting Wisconsin to cover the spread (+4.5) and am also focusing on John Tonje to go Under 2.5 3-pointers.

✅ Wisconsin to cover the spread: +4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As we get into the “dog days” of March, the teams that are deeper with more fresh legs will have a decisive advantage. That is one reason Michigan State is playing so well of late, as it has nine players averaging at least 15 minutes per game.

However, Wisconsin also has nine players averaging double-digit minutes, and the Badgers are a veteran team that can be trusted on the road. 

Wisconsin ranks 42nd in average D-I experience and uses that leadership to develop the seventh-most efficient offense in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency.

This is not your stereotypical Badgers team, as this one is a lot more explosive than Greg Gard’s teams or Bo Ryan’s teams of the past. 

Wisconsin has scored 90-plus points in three Big Ten games this season, equaling its total from the previous 400 conference games from mid-February. I am making the Badgers a four-star play, as they are 4-2 ATS as road underdogs this season.

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the Badgers at +4.5 at less than the standard -110 juice.

📊 Best odds: -108 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $9.26)

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🔥 John Tonje Under 2.5 3-pointers made ⭐⭐⭐⭐

John Tonje has put the Badgers on his back of late, averaging 23.6 points per game over the last 10 games since going scoreless in 22 minutes in a win over USC.

However, Tonje has made most of his hay at the rim, in the mid-range, or at the foul line, as his perimeter shooting has cooled off of late.

Tonje has made just 3-of-16 3-point attempts over the last two games. And he faces a Michigan State defense that is elite in defending the 3-point line, ranking fourth-best in the country (28.8% 3-point percentage allowed) and best in Big Ten play (27.4%).

📊 Best odds: -145 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $6.90)

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🎯 Expert Wisconsin vs. Michigan State score prediction

🔮 Expert score prediction: Michigan State 78, Wisconsin 77

This line is somewhat inflated thanks to Michigan State extending its winning streak against Maryland to seven games after its half-court buzzer beater. But Wisconsin had an extra day of rest for this matchup, which is why I’m predicting a final score of Michigan State 78, Wisconsin 77. 

📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1800)

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📊 Live Wisconsin vs. Michigan State odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🔢 Wisconsin vs. Michigan State opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State according to BetMGM.

  • Spread: Wisconsin +4.5 (-110) | Michigan State -4.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 141.5 (-115) | Under 141.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Wisconsin +155 | Michigan State -190

📺 How to watch Wisconsin vs. Michigan State tonight

📅 Date: Sunday, March 2
🕗 Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: CBS

❓ Wisconsin vs. Michigan State FAQs

Who is favored to win Wisconsin vs. Michigan State?

Michigan State is listed as a moneyline favorite to beat Wisconsin. The Spartans are trading as low as -190 at our best sports betting apps, giving them a 65.52% implied probability.

What are the betting odds for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State?

Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite over San Francisco tonight. The total is set at either 146.5 or 147.5 points in the contest.

What will be the final score of Wisconsin vs. Michigan State?

We're predicting a final score of Michigan State 78, Wisconsin 77 entering today's matchup at Breslin Center.

What time is Wisconsin vs. Michigan State tonight?

Tipoff for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State is slated for today at 1:30 p.m. ET.

⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites

Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”