Xavier vs. Texas Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: Best Picks for NCAA Tournament First Four
It's time to see which of these No. 11 seeds will advance to the Big Dance, with the Xavier Musketeers (21-11) and the Texan Longhorns (19-15) set to battle tonight at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, for the final game of the First Four (9:10 p.m. ET, truTV).
Our Xavier vs. Texas prediction, odds, and preview, part of our March Madness predictions, analyzes the Musketeers' chances of joining the March Madness bracket and facing the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini.
The line has moved in favor of the Musketeers, who opened as 1.5-point betting favorites.
🔢 Xavier vs. Texas updated betting action
Xavier opened as the 1.5-point betting favorites, which has since increased to 3.5 in the lead-up to tipoff, according to BetMGM. Xavier has most of the public backing, with 55% of the bets and 76% of the money on the Musketeers.
The total opened at 149.5 but has increased to 151.5, with 64% of the bets and 70% of the money on the Over. Texas' moneyline odds have lengthened from +110 to +135.
🏀 Xavier vs. Texas prediction & picks for Wednesday
Here are my best Xavier vs. Texas predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
✅ Against the spread pick: Xavier -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Ryan Conwell Over 17.5 points (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Xavier 79, Texas 73 (+17000 via DraftKings)
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
🏆 Best Xavier vs. Texas Seed pick, player prop bet & score prediction
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✅ Xavier to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you want to take Xavier’s moneyline value (-150 at FanDuel), that would be a five-star prediction. Still, I’m comfortable laying the points with Sean Miller’s squad against a Texas team that doesn’t deserve to be here and plays a defensive style that benefits the Musketeers.
Xavier shreds teams that play drop coverage, ranking in the 90th percentile in mid-range efficiency. The Musketeers are also an elite free-throw team, ranking eighth in the nation with a 79.4% clip at the charity stripe. That matters because Texas’ defense ranks 319th in free-throw rate.
I’m interested in backing Xavier to make a second-weekend run in this year’s tourney, starting with a win over Texas on Wednesday.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Ryan Conwell Over 17.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
By clearing his points prop, Conwell can lead Xavier into the NCAA Tournament. This line is as high as 18.5 at some of our best sports betting sites because he’s a three-level scorer who is playing exceptionally well of late.
Conwell has scored 20-plus points in five straight games, including a 38-point performance last time. His free throw rate has been 37% (eighth in the Big East) in conference play, which bodes well entering this matchup.
If Conwell can get to the line and stay aggressive, I expect him to finish with at least 18 points.
📊 Best odds: -125 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8)
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🎯 Score prediction: Xavier 79, Texas 73
The Musketeers simply have more paths to victory, which is why I’m betting they will ultimately prevail for a 79-73 win. I’d anticipate a pick 'em for the spread of Friday’s first-round matchup between Xavier and Illinois, so this game matters for your March Madness bracket predictions.
📊 Best odds: +17000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,700)
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🤖 Xavier vs. Texas AI prediction
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Xavier vs. Texas. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Xavier 78, Texas 73
🖥️ AI score prediction: Xavier 78, Texas 73
- Xavier has been strong offensively, averaging around 76 points per game. The Musketeers’ efficient scoring, especially with Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell leading, should give them an edge
- Texas has struggled in high-pressure games against strong opponents, particularly in SEC play. Despite Tre Johnson’s scoring ability, the Longhorns have been inconsistent, especially in close games
- Xavier has a slightly more experienced lineup with Freemantle, which could be the difference in late-game execution
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Xavier covering the spread (-2.5) and a total of Over 150.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
📊 Live Xavier vs. Texas odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.
🔢 Xavier vs. Texas opening odds
- Spread: Xavier -1.5 (-110) | Texas +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Xavier -130 | Texas +110
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.
💵 Early betting updates
Since opening at -1.5, the game has shifted a whole point in Xavier's direction, pumping the Musketeers up to 2.5-point betting favorites. However, per the Sportsbook Review betting odds, we see very tight action.
The spread is tilted slightly in Xavier's direction, with 51% of the bets coming in on that side of the market. The total is seeing a perfect 50/50 split between the Over/Under.
🔮 First Four expert picks
- Mount St. Mary's vs. American prediction
- Xavier vs. Texas prediction
- March Madness picks and predictions: Which First Four teams have best odds to reach second round?
- Which March Madness First Four teams have best Final Four odds?
- March Madness first-round predictions
📺 How to watch Xavier vs. Texas: NCAA Tournament first four
📅 Date: Wednesday, March 19
🕗 Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
📍 Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
📺 TV: truTV
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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