49ers vs. Steelers Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Can Steelers Stop McCaffrey?
The San Francisco 49ers kick off their new NFL season on the road against the impressive Pittsburgh Steelers. Read on for our top San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Defensive end Nick Bosa finally signed his new contract with the San Francisco 49ers on Wednesday, becoming the highest-paid defender in NFL history. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year heads to the home of linebacker T.J. Watt, the player from whom he took the honor.
Like Bosa, Watt ended his contract saga with the Pittsburgh Steelers
on the Wednesday before the new season two years ago. He registered two sacks
and five quarterback hits in Pittsburgh's 2021 season opener.
On Sunday, we witness a matchup between the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft and the last overall pick from that draft. Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy, respectively, are leading their offenses after both excelled at the end of the previous year. Pickett and the Steelers went 7-2 down the stretch, continuing head coach Mike Tomlin’s remarkable streak of 16 consecutive winning seasons with Pittsburgh.
Purdy, famously selected with the final pick in the seventh round, won eight games in a row as San Francisco’s starter, including two in the playoffs.
Here is our best 49ers vs. Steelers prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Steelers prediction
Christian McCaffrey Over 58.5 rushing yards (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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These are two very good defenses. Purdy, who has spent most of this year recovering from UCL surgery on his throwing arm, faces a fierce defense boasting the likes of Watt, along with defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Purdy tapered his throwing in the build-up to this game, so he’s good to go, and he’ll likely lean on the 49ers’ key offensive strength of their run game. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan had a different rushing leader in each season he’s been in San Francisco. Running back Christian McCaffrey was that player last year, and he didn’t join the team until Week 7.
McCaffrey rushed for a total of 1,139 regular season yards in 2022 (with the 49ers and Carolina Panthers) and had 741 receiving yards. McCaffrey ran for 746 yards with the 49ers and had 464 passing yards. Since entering the NFL in 2017, he leads the league in games with both 10-plus rushing attempts and five-plus receptions (34). McCaffery did this six times last season, four of them in a 49ers uniform.
If you think the Steelers' defense is too strong for this play, 12 backs had 60-plus yards rushing against them last season. CMC is among the NFL's very best.
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49ers vs. Steelers best odds
Caesars -103
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCaffrey Over 58.5 rushing yards | McCaffrey Over 58.5 rushing yards | McCaffrey Over 58.5 rushing yards | McCaffrey Over 58.5 rushing yards | McCaffrey Over 58.5 rushing yards |
| -115 | -114 | -115 | -103 | -110 |
The total moved up and down at some of our main books this week. At bet365 it was down to 56.5 yards for the same odds, but they’ve upped it to keep in line with others. The best value is at Caesars, which offers extra juice at -103. DraftKings lowered its odds from -110 to -115.
McCaffrey averaged 74 regular season rushing yards per game with the 49ers last year. He’s had a whole offseason to study Shanahan’s offense. This is a good total we can confidently back him to hit. This play is four stars because of McCaffrey’s superstar talent and Pittsburgh’s recent history defending quality backs.
49ers vs. Steelers odds
49ers vs. Steelers odds analysis
The Steelers are +2.5-point home underdogs. Their defense could keep this game close, especially as Purdy continues to work on his arm. The Niners also have a rookie kicker who looked shaky before his preseason injury. If this game goes down to a last-second kick, don’t count on him making it in front of a raucous Pittsburgh crowd and the breeze that whips in off the rivers.
With two second-year QBs up against excellent defenses, the Under (41.5 points via DraftKings and FanDuel) could be the play if you’re betting on the total. They’re both offering -110 odds. The total is as low at 40 points via bet365.
In 10 games as a San Francisco starter, McCaffrey scored 10 touchdowns (6 rushing, 4 receiving), he’s -110 as an anytime TD scorer.
49ers vs. Steelers game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- How to watch: Fox
- Weather: 72 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds
49ers-Steelers prediction made Friday, 9/8/23 at 11:59 a.m. ET
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