49ers vs. Bills Prediction Tonight: Sunday Night Football Odds & SNF Picks
Two Super Bowl contenders face off tonight on Sunday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills (9-2) host the San Francisco 49ers (5-6) at Highmark Stadium with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
- The Bills are favored by as many as 6.5 points by the latest Sunday Night Football odds amid their best start since 1992
- The 49ers are underdogs for the second straight game after 36 straight regular-season games as favorites or pick 'em
The Bills look to bolster their Super Bowl odds behind the NFL MVP odds favorite, but we're backing the underdogs as part of our 49ers vs. Bills prediction tonight for Sunday Night Football as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions.
49ers vs. Bills line movement & betting splits
The Bills opened as 6.5-point favorites across most of our best sportsbooks, but we saw this line balloon as high as 7 and fall back down to 6 in the days leading up to kickoff tonight.
We've seen seen it settle back at 6.5 in favor of host Buffalo, which has won six straight games and covered against the Kansas City Chiefs before last week's bye. That's why nearly 75% of all bet slips are backing the Bills before kickoff.
Best 49ers vs. Bills picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: 49ers +6 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Bills ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Jauan Jennings Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
49ers vs. Bills against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
49ers to cover the spread: +6 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
The 49ers have already ruled out Nick Bosa and Trent Williams for this week’s game. But head coach Kyle Shanahan expects quarterback Brock Purdy to play.
Shanahan's teams are 68-30 straight up when either Purdy or Jimmy Garoppolo are under center. But the Niners have won just three of 22 contests during the Shanahan era in games with any other quarterback, like last week when Brandon Allen was thrust into action.
Overinflated line after last week’s loss
I'm not putting much stock into San Francisco’s loss at Green Bay last week given the number of injuries the team was dealing with then.
The minus-28 point differential in the defeat was the 49ers’ worst under Shanahan (since 2017). The opponents' 21 points off turnovers were tied for the third-worst too, and San Francisco's 44 rushing yards were also the club's third-worst.
Those numbers have led to this overinflated line. San Francisco was a balanced team entering last week while sitting among the top six in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
Cold won’t bother San Francisco
The total has dropped from 46.5 to 44.5 because the Orchard Park area is expected to get up to two feet of snow throughout the weekend.
We saw the cold in Green Bay clearly affect the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving night. But San Francisco has covered the spread in all three night games it's played as underdogs amid temperatures of 40 degrees or colder under Shanahan.
While I originally leaned toward the favorites in my 49ers vs. Bills early picks, I'm backing San Francisco at +6 with three stars, as the Bills are under .500 (13-15-2) ATS as a home favorite with Josh Allen as their signal-caller.
I missed the best number available, as the line quickly dropped from +7 to +6 once it was announced Purdy is expected to play.
But BetMGM is still one of the only NFL prop betting sites offering the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs at +6 with a $10 winning wager paying out a $9.09 profit.
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
49ers vs. Bills player prop
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jauan Jennings Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Jennings has received the fourth-most targets over the past three weeks, leading to the same ranking in receptions. That's also translated to 90-plus receiving yards in two of the last three games.
Jennings ranks sixth in the NFL in yards against split safety coverage, which the Bills use at the third-highest rate. He also leads the 49ers in yards against zone coverage, and the Bills utilize that defense at the sixth-highest rate.
This would be a much more confident play if the weather forecast wasn't so ominous. But I'm taking a flier that Jennings will find success regardless given what the metrics say when facing the Bills.
Jennings might be successful, but Phil Wood expects another 49ers pass-catcher to struggle in his 49ers vs. Bills SNF prop bets.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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49ers vs. Bills odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: 49ers vs. Bills
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 32 degrees, 6-plus inches of snow, wind 17-mph WSW
NFL betting odds pages
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