49ers vs. Jaguars Week 11 Picks: Trap Game for San Francisco?

Kenny Ducey

Last Updated: November 19, 2021 6:57 AM EST • 2 min 17 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in Week 11. We break it down with our 49ers vs Jaguars picks against the spread and Over/Under.

San Francisco was in a tailspin after losing to the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, and Indianapolis Colts, before picking up a win over the Chicago Bears and another against the Los Angeles Rams two weeks later. Coming off that big home win over a Super Bowl hopeful, the 49ers have some newfound confidence, even at 4-5 straight-up and 3-6 against the spread.

The Jaguars have looked good in recent weeks, and even though they couldn’t back up their win over the Buffalo Bills with yet another victory, they are still a respectable 4-5 ATS for the season. They pushed the Colts and only fell by six points after a good fight, and have played three good games in their last four weeks.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the 49ers and Jaguars (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

49ers vs. Jaguars Week 11 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FLWeather: Partly Cloudy, 74 degrees

49ers vs. Jaguars Odds Analysis

The 49ers opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to Sportsbook Review's consensus odds, before the public and sharps alike took a clear side. Sportsbooks across the board are now hanging -6.5 on San Francisco and the moneyline has gone from the -235 range to around -280. The total has come down from 47 to 45.5.

49ers vs. Jaguars Picks

Jaguars +6.5 (-110) ????Over 45.5 (-110) ???

49ers vs. Jaguars Predictions

Jaguars +6.5 (-110)

I’m going to go ahead and fade all this steam coming in on the 49ers. I see it as a massive overreaction to last week’s win over a fading Rams team that has seen QB Matthew Stafford completely disappear from MVP discussions. This Niners team is still bad, and the Jaguars can’t be ignored at the moment.

Jacksonville picked up a quality win against the Bills and nearly another against the Colts. It trailed big early last week and roared back. The common denominator in both of those games was the defense, which stepped up in a big way. Jacksonville is now seventh in DVOA against the run, and will be able to disrupt 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s clear gameplan to establish the ground game.

With the Niners out of sorts offensively, the Jags will be able to get to work on this Niners defense. Jacksonville is 20th in DVOA against the pass, and rookie QB Trevor Lawrence’s confidence has grown by the week. I think this is a good recipe for the Jaguars to get out in front early and lock up this spread.

Over 45.5 (-110)

I mentioned how much I love this matchup for the Jaguars offense considering they're going to finally have to take the training wheels off of Lawrence and throw all day. The 49ers are also going to be forced to throw far more than they’d like to given the stout rushing defense of the Jaguars.

I think that leads us to an Over. This line doesn’t respect the flashes Lawrence has shown this year, and it also seems to be looking past the strength of both defenses. No one is going to be able to kill the clock with the run, or the ball will be turned right back over to the losing team.

That’s an equation resulting in an Over if I’ve ever seen one.