49ers vs. Rams Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 3
The San Francisco 49ers (1-1) look to continue their NFC West dominance against the Los Angeles Rams (0-2) when they meet Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.
- The 49ers are 7-point favorites to beat the Rams across our best sports betting sites
- San Francisco has gone 12-1 in its last 13 games against Los Angeles
- The Rams enter Sunday's matchup without their top two receivers among other key injuries
Our 49ers vs. Rams prediction makes the case for Sunday's favorites as part of our NFL Week 3 predictions.
Best 49ers vs. Rams picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: 49ers -7 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Rams ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kyren Williams prop pick: Under 65.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
49ers vs. Rams against the spread prediction: Week 3
49ers to cover the spread: -7 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
49ers vs. Rams opening odds:
- 49ers: -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Rams: +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
This 49ers-Rams matchup should be dubbed the “battle of the walking wounded” given how many injuries both teams are dealing with.
San Francisco opened as a 6.5-point favorite despite coming off a road loss to the Minnesota Vikings, which dropped the Niners to 3-5 in one-possession games since the start of last season (including playoffs).
However, this line has since moved to -7 entering the weekend and even higher earlier this week as Los Angeles continues to get worse news on the injury front.
Rams injuries too much to overcome
Cooper Kupp will not be placed on IR as of yet, but he still joins Puka Nacua as top Rams’ wide receivers that won't suit up for this matchup.
In addition, three starting offensive linemen - Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila, and Joe Noteboom - are on IR, leaving Los Angeles decimated up front entering this game. A top-three receiving corps of Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and either Tutu Atwell or Jordan Whittington does not exude the most confidence.
The Rams' injuries are not just on the offensive side of the ball, as they will also be without two key members of the secondary in safety John Johnson II and cornerback Darious Williams, among others.
49ers should roll without Samuel
Brock Purdy will be without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel in this matchup, which is a meaningful but not insurmountable disadvantage for the 49ers QB.
When both have been on the field, Purdy has dropped back 379 times, averaging 7.0 air yards per attempt and a 14% off-target percentage while posting a 72 QBR.
When both are off the field, among Purdy’s 50 dropbacks, he has averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt while being off-target on 24% of throws and posting a 60 QBR.
That drop-off is not all that significant, and while Samuel (first) and McCaffrey (third) rank in the top three on the team in yards after the catch over the last two seasons, there is still plenty of talent to spread the ball to.
Can Niners play cleaner football?
Among San Francisco’s costly mistakes in last week’s loss to Minnesota were a blocked punt, a muffed punt, and Purdy fumbling the ball before he could even throw it.
It was Purdy’s fourth career game with two-plus turnovers, and while San Francisco is 0-4 in those games, it has been much more successful when he takes care of the football as evidenced by his 18-5 overall record.
The good news is that the Rams defense had the third-fewest takeaways (15) last year, and it's been one of the worst units in football this year.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps charging less than standard -110 juice to back the favorites at -7. Through its -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would return $9.52 in profit.
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
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49ers vs. Rams prop pick for Week 3
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Kyren Williams Under 65.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
The 49ers allowed 407 total yards to the Vikings last week, and 97 of them came on a touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson on an aggressive play call when Minnesota was backed up.
Yet Los Angeles does not have a receiver capable of taking the top off a defense like Jefferson with Kupp and Nacua out. And Matthew Stafford ranks 17th in total QB (49) through two weeks, so even the veteran is having a hard time being successful with the dearth of skill position players around him.
Arizona bottled up Williams for 25 yards on 12 carries last week, and his 2.1 yards per carry average was his lowest since becoming the full-time starter last year.
Los Angeles is unlikely to lose by 31 points again after its worst loss since 2019, but I expect San Francisco to start fast, which should have the Rams running less while playing catch-up once again.
This Under is juiced as high as -118 with a 54.13% implied probability at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best price at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would return $9.09 in profit.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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49ers vs. Rams odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
49ers vs. Rams game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 22
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: 49ers (-350 via BetMGM)
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