49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction, TNF Picks & Odds: Thursday Night Football
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are each coming off home losses as big favorites last week, and look to right the ship in this NFC West matchup on Thursday Night Football as we start our NFL predictions for Week 6.
- San Francisco and Seattle lost as the two biggest favorites on the Week 5 slate
- The 49ers have a losing record (2-3) through five games for the seventh time in the last 10 seasons
- San Francisco has won five consecutive head-to-head meetings with Seattle
Our 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction based on the Thursday Night Football odds expects the home underdogs to cover the spread despite the long losing streak in this head-to-head rivalry.
San Francisco's Super Bowl odds finally began to slip with last week's loss. I lean the other way on this game than our Phil Wood did with his 49ers vs. Seahawks early picks but we have a chance for a middle.
Best 49ers vs. Seahawks picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Seahawks +3.5 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. 49ers ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
49ers vs. Seahawks against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Seahawks to cover the spread: +3.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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49ers’ inability to finish games
Some will look at this as a positive for San Francisco, but the 49ers are 0-2 in division games after leading both by 10-plus points in the fourth quarter. Those two losses, coupled with the 49ers’ Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings dropped them to 0-3 against NFC opponents for the first time since 2017.
San Francisco was inexplicably shut out in the second half last week, despite entering Week 5 ranked second in EPA per dropback while facing a Cardinals defense that ranked 27th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Brock Purdy comes in with no momentum
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy turned in his fourth career game with multiple interceptions last week, and the team has unsurprisingly lost all four of those contests. In addition, he completed just 54% of his passes last week, which was the second-worst in a start in his career.
It was not like Purdy was under much pressure having been hit five total times (and sacked twice). He could not even find success through the help of a running game that churned out 153 rushing yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
Expect positive regression from Seattle’s pass defense
Entering Week 5 against the Giants, Seattle’s pass defense had allowed just nine catches of 20-plus yards through the first four weeks. That makes it all the more surprising that the Seahawks allowed three such passes to the Giants, and will be a focal point entering a matchup against a high-powered 49ers offense.
It helps that Seattle’s defense has 17 sacks this season, and three or more sacks in four consecutive games.
The Seahawks are a play at anything north of a field goal. So while Caesars and bet365 offer a spread of +3, I am looking to the other NFL betting sites that have a line of +3.5, and DraftKings is the only one charging less than -115 odds to back the underdogs.
A $10 winning wager at DraftKings’-112 odds would net $8.93 in profits.
My 49ers vs. Seahawks best bet
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Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.00%
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Seattle allowed 11.2 yards per reception and two passing touchdowns to a Daniel Jones-led Giants offense last week. That's likely why we can find plus-money odds for the Under for Purdy’s touchdowns.
Purdy has averaged 264.7 passing yards per game and has two passing touchdowns in two of his three career starts against Seattle. However, the Seahawks entered last week ranked in the top nine in yards per attempt and passing yards per game allowed. They also ranked in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Instead, I expect Kyle Shanahan to see that Giants backup running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran for 129 yards and 7.2 yards per carry last week and to attack Seattle via the run. That seems like the weaker unit for the Seahawks defensively, as they allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate even before being torched by Tracy last week.
It is not often one can find even-money odds on a standard player prop O/U, but this is great value at BetMGM, as FanDuel offers standard -110 juice on either side of this total.
49ers vs. Seahawks odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: 49ers vs. Seahawks
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lumen Field (Seattle, Wash.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 52 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph N
- Favorite: 49ers -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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